Best Record in League vs Championship

[KingSpeed]

I mentioned this in another thread. Off the top of my head, the team with the best record in the league has only won the title 6 times in the last 18 years.

Year/Best Record/Champion

1993/Suns/Bulls
1994/Sonics/Rockets
1995/Spurs/Rockets
1996/Bulls/Bulls
1997/Bulls/Bulls
1998/Jazz/Bulls
1999/Spurs/Spurs
2000/Lakers/Lakers
2001/Spurs/Lakers
2002/Kings/Lakers
2003/Spurs/Spurs
2004/Pacers/Pistons
2005/Suns/Spurs
2006/Pistons/Heat
2007/Mavericks/Spurs
2008/Celtics/Celtics
2009/Cavaliers/Lakers
2010/Cavaliers/?

Isn't that crazy?

 

[jlprk]

I wonder which team has surprised us the most times by winning a championship without the best record. Bulls and Rockets twice, Lakers three times. David Stern's referees are just so tough to predict....

 

[Minstrel]

Isn't that crazy?

Not really, to me. First of all, there's usually not a lot of difference in record among the top two or three teams in the NBA. A team one to two games behind another team doing better in the playoffs isn't very surprising, even if record indicated "true talent." Small differences in record don't speak to significant differences in ability.

Secondly, top teams often cruise near the end, either because they have nothing to play for (like seeding in their conference) or because they're a veteran team that is more interested in being healthy and rested for the playoffs than seeding. So record is not always indicative of true talent level.

How many times is the NBA champion not one of the three best records in the NBA, or how many times is the NBA champion a team that few picked to win? Not very often.

 

[TripTango]

Minstrel makes some good points. In addition, I'd like to point out that the 98 Bulls were actually tied with Utah for the best record, so there were actually 7 matches in the past 18 years. There are also a handful of 2nd best records winning it all, a few cases of the 3rd best record winning, and then things tail off drastically after that. In other words, it's a very predictable distribution.

 

[Draco]

How many times is the NBA champion not one of the three best records in the NBA

I would like to know this stat.

 

[jlprk]

Putting out 110% during the regular season often causes injuries by playoff time. Conversely, cruising below capacity in the regular season leaves something in reserve for the playoffs.