Blazer playoff position

[Draco]

Blazer playoff position; Journey up from 8th seed

These are the current playoff standings from seeds two through seven with losses and remaining games:

DAL 27L SAS
DEN 28L @PHX
UTH 28L @GSW PHX
PHX 28L DEN @UTA
POR 31L GSW
SAS 31L @DAL
(OKC is 8th seed)​

Remaining games by date:

4/13 UTH@GSW DEN@PHX
4/14 SAS@DAL GSW@POR PHX@UTH​

These tiebreakers have been finalized and could possible come into play:

DAL owns tiebreakers against PHX and DEN
DEN owns tiebreakers against UTH
UTH owns tiebreakers against DAL
POR owns tiebreakers against SAS

(Being a division winner trumps above tiebreakers)​

Open tiebreakers

UTH is 2-1 vs PHX
PHX is 2-1 vs DEN​

I'll keep updating this thread over the next 10 days, I kind of enjoy figuring out all the scenarios and where we can end up. Much better than worrying about the lottery and potential draft prospects.

 

[Draco]

Blazers win and they are 6th seed. Spurs lose and Blazers are 6th seed.

Blazers lose and Spurs win Blazers would be 7th seed.

OKC is the 8th seed.


There are 5 games remaining that could impact the playoffs:

UTH@GSW DEN@PHX
SAS@DAL GSW@POR PHX@UTH:

That means there are 32 possible permutations of game outcomes:
GSW DEN DAL GSW PHX
GSW DEN DAL GSW UTH
GSW DEN DAL POR PHX
GSW DEN DAL POR UTH
GSW DEN SAS GSW PHX
GSW DEN SAS GSW UTH
GSW DEN SAS POR PHX
GSW DEN SAS POR UTH
GSW PHX DAL GSW PHX
GSW PHX DAL GSW UTH
GSW PHX DAL POR PHX
GSW PHX DAL POR UTH
GSW PHX SAS GSW PHX
GSW PHX SAS GSW UTH
GSW PHX SAS POR PHX
GSW PHX SAS POR UTH
UTH DEN DAL GSW PHX
UTH DEN DAL GSW UTH
UTH DEN DAL POR PHX
UTH DEN DAL POR UTH
UTH DEN SAS GSW PHX
UTH DEN SAS GSW UTH
UTH DEN SAS POR PHX
UTH DEN SAS POR UTH
UTH PHX DAL GSW PHX
UTH PHX DAL GSW UTH
UTH PHX DAL POR PHX
UTH PHX DAL POR UTH
UTH PHX SAS GSW PHX
UTH PHX SAS GSW UTH
UTH PHX SAS POR PHX
UTH PHX SAS POR UTH

These would be the losses for seeds 2-5
DAL DEN UTH PHX
27 28 30 29
27 28 29 30
27 28 30 29
27 28 29 30
28 28 30 29
28 28 29 30
28 28 30 29
28 28 29 30
27 29 30 28
27 29 29 29
27 29 30 28
27 29 29 29
28 29 30 28
28 29 29 29
28 29 30 28
28 29 29 29
27 28 29 29
27 28 28 30
27 28 29 29
27 28 28 30
28 28 29 29
28 28 28 30
28 28 29 29
28 28 28 30
27 29 29 28
27 29 28 29
27 29 29 28
27 29 28 29
28 29 29 28
28 29 28 29
28 29 29 28
28 29 28 29


These would be the playoff seeds 2-7:
DAL DEN PHX UTH POR SAS
DAL DEN UTH PHX POR SAS
DAL DEN PHX UTH POR SAS
DAL DEN UTH PHX POR SAS
DAL DEN PHX UTH SAS POR
DAL DEN UTH PHX SAS POR
DAL DEN PHX UTH POR SAS
DAL DEN UTH PHX POR SAS
DAL PHX DEN UTH POR SAS
DAL DEN UTH PHX POR SAS
DAL PHX DEN UTH POR SAS
DAL DEN UTH PHX POR SAS
DAL PHX DEN UTH SAS POR
DAL DEN UTH PHX SAS POR
DAL PHX DEN UTH POR SAS
DAL DEN UTH PHX POR SAS
DAL DEN PHX UTH POR SAS
DAL DEN UTH PHX POR SAS
DAL DEN PHX UTH POR SAS
DAL DEN UTH PHX POR SAS
DAL DEN PHX UTH SAS POR
DAL DEN UTH PHX SAS POR
DAL DEN PHX UTH POR SAS
DAL DEN UTH PHX POR SAS
DAL PHX DEN UTH POR SAS
DAL UTH PHX DEN POR SAS
DAL PHX DEN UTH POR SAS
DAL UTH PHX DEN POR SAS
DAL PHX DEN UTH SAS POR
UTH DAL PHX DEN SAS POR
DAL PHX DEN UTH POR SAS
UTH DAL PHX DEN POR SAS

Assuming a team has a 50/50 chance at a win, then:

Dallas has a 93.8% chance of #2 and 6.3% at #3
Denver has a 62.5% chance at #3, 25% at #4 and 12.5% at #5
Utah has a 6.3% chance at #2, 6.3% chance at #3, 37.5% chance at #4 and 50% chance at #5
Phoenix has a 25% chance at #3, 37.5% chance at #4 and 37.5% chance at #5

Portland has a 75% chance at #6


Another way of looking at it is the #2 seed is 93.8% Dallas and 6.3% Utah.

Chance of being the #3 seed is 6.3% Dallas, 62.5% Denver, 6.3% Utah and 25% Phoenix.

 

[Bwatcher]

Thanks Draco. This makes it easy to see the opportunities/barriers.

 

[oldmangrouch]

SA has 6 games, 3 against play-off teams (all on the road).

OKC has 7 games, 4 against play-off teams. (2 at home)

Blazers have 3 games against play-off teams (out of 5), but only 1 on the road.

In other words, all 3 teams have a chance to finish strong - or a chance to founder. I don't see the schedule really favoring any of the three over the others. Honestly, I see no reason to believe either SA or OKC are going to crash-and-burn, so the Blazers are probably stuck with 8th.

 

[The Other Guys]

It's going to be one hell of a week. Top 8 teams facing each other all over the place.

 

[THE HCP]

This is gonna be a fun week. Glad I have the LeaguePass!

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Wheels and Vance are making projections on the remaining games for the 2-8 seeded teams today. Basically, they're saying that playoff teams will win out except when on the road against another playoff team.

So far, they've projected SAS to finish 8th at 50-32 (losing @PHX, @DEN, & @DAL), POR 7th at 51-31 (losing only @LAL), and OKC 6th at 52-30 (losing @UTA & @POR). Based on this same criteria, they expect DEN to finish 5th at 53-29 (losing only @OKC & @PHX), PHX 4th at 53-29 (losing @OKC & @UTA, winning TB w/DEN), DAL 3rd at 54-28 (losing @POR), and UTA 2nd at 55-27 (winning out).

So, based on their guesses, seedings would be:

1 LAL v 8 SAS
4 PHX v 5 DEN
2 UTA v 7 POR
3 DAL v 6 OKC

 

[BlazerBeav]

Well that would suck - of all the matchups, I hate that one the most. Damn Jerry Sloan.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Well that would suck - of all the matchups, I hate that one the most. Damn Jerry Sloan.

Well, if it makes you feel any better, if everything else plays out as specified, but OKC loses at home to either Denver or Phoenix (both very possible), then we'd get the 6 and OKC would get the 7. Happy now?

 

[Draco]

Well that would suck - of all the matchups, I hate that one the most. Damn Jerry Sloan.

I think I might want to play Utah the most. They're defense has not been efficient this year so I think we will score fine on them. I'm confident with Camby, Batum, and McMillian having time to game plan we will be able to limit their offense more than during the season.

Regular season records mean very little in my opinion, going 0-4 against Utah and 3-0 against Dallas by itself doesn't mean much when teams are schuffling players in and out of the lineups, traveling, dealing with injuries, not adequately planning for matchups, etc. The postseason is an entirely different season.

But mostly I want us to just avoid the Lakers in the first round, the other teams seeded 2-5 are very evenly talented.

 

[Draco]

Since OKC lost in overtime to Utah we now control our own destiny for the 7th seed

 

[Draco]

A Blazer win with both San Antonio and Oklahoma City losing.

Perfect!

 

[Draco]

Blazers take a tough loss to Dallas but still control their own destiny for the 6th seed.

 

[Kaydow]

Blazers take a tough loss to Dallas but still control their own destiny for the 6th seed.

Technically you are right. But the game at LA tomorrow could change that. If we lose, say goodbye to the 6th spot. EVEN if we won the last two (Okl City & Golden State) we would need Okl City to lose to Golden State or Memphis/at home. They won't lose either of either of those.

 

[Draco]

I'm shocked OKC lost tonight. Tomorrows winner will finish 6th or 7th and the loser 7th or 8th.

 

[Draco]

Ok I think I got it all figured out now.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Teams want to play us now without BROY. Is there a scenario that could make Dallas possibly want to lose their last game to SA so they don't face SA in the playoffs? Probably not since they would not know if we win our last game, but lets face it, we are no longer the team no one wants to face in the first round. SA is. I am half joking about this, but it would be an interesting scenario.