Here is my 2020-2021 Blazer win-loss prediction based purely on the past two years' BPM's and a guesstimate of player minutes. I ran the same prediction method for the past two seasons but using actual minutes played:
2018-2019 predicted 47-35. Nurk's BPM way outperformed prior years & accounts for almost all of the prediction error.
2019-2020 predicted 35-39. Bingo.
2020-2021 predicts 46-26.
FTE - Full Time Equivalency - e.g. 0.68 means a player plays 68% of a full game every game.
PBPM - Predicted BPM. Weighted average of prior two years BPM with most recent at 2x.
PWINS - Predicted win contribution. BPM x FTE x 2.5. Historically a full-time BPM correlates with +2.8 wins.
Players with no data get a PBPM of -3.0. To be conservative, I lowered Hood's PBPM by -1.0 due to his injury.
2018-2019 predicted 47-35. Nurk's BPM way outperformed prior years & accounts for almost all of the prediction error.
2019-2020 predicted 35-39. Bingo.
2020-2021 predicts 46-26.
FTE - Full Time Equivalency - e.g. 0.68 means a player plays 68% of a full game every game.
PBPM - Predicted BPM. Weighted average of prior two years BPM with most recent at 2x.
PWINS - Predicted win contribution. BPM x FTE x 2.5. Historically a full-time BPM correlates with +2.8 wins.
Players with no data get a PBPM of -3.0. To be conservative, I lowered Hood's PBPM by -1.0 due to his injury.
