Blazers 2025-26 Realistic best case ceiling?

[SharpesTriumph]

What do you think the Blazers realistic best case ceiling is next season? Lets say something that has a 2%-10% or such chance of happening. So more realistic than a super unlikely 1 in 1000th chance. But certainly best case scenario that is much better than your average expectations.

So lets say a couple other teams have numerous injuries and the Blazers have very few, the Blazers youth develops well, our vets bounce back, etc.

Betting odds for the Blazers into the playoffs are between +425 to make it and -700 to miss it so that implies Vegas estimates we are about a 1 in 6 chance of making the playoffs.

 

[e_blazer]

Where’s the Championship parade option?

 

[wizenheimer]

Where’s the Championship parade option?

1977 on line one

 

[blazerkor]

It's really hard to know. Shaedon and Scoot are still in that part of their career where they could go from what they were last season to all nba level players... I don't think that's likely so I put our ceiling at 7th seed and that's if Shaedon and Scoot both take big leaps forward to where they are legit starters on a playoff team. In my view those two and the bigs are the only variables.

I think we saw that Deni can play at a level close to an all star and that Tou is going to be an all defensive team guy. We know what Jerami and Jrue can be both as mediocre as they were last season and as good as they've both been in previous seasons.

How good could Clingan be if his low post offensive foot work has improved and he's developed or just got more comfortable finishing with dunks when getting the ball near the hoop? How fast can Yang get up to speed, if he can?

Way too many unknowns. It's hard for me to imagine that we could secure a playoff spot without having to take it through the play-ins but it's also hard for me to imagine that every player on our team plays to their potential this season but I guess that is a possibility and I don't know just how good that makes us. Probably better than the 7 seed but that's where I landed because it seems unrealistic that all of these players on this team, with all of the different places they are in their careers, actually play at the top of their games at the same time.

 

[Natebishop3]

It’s so hard to come up with a best case with so many new variables.

Simons and Ayton gone.

Young guys getting a bigger role.

Jrue added to the team.

I’m gonna say probably the 8th seed. Is there a potential to do better? Sure. If Sharpe explodes this year and Jrue returns to form, I could see us making it into the top 6.

 

[blazerkor]

Also as we all know...

 

[BoBoBREWSKI]

I’m gonna say probably the 8th seed. Is there a potential to do better? Sure. If Sharpe explodes this year and Jrue returns to form, I could see us making it into the top 6.

My thoughts exactly. That's why I voted for 6. If all the dominos fall in our favor, that is my best case scenario.

 

[Natebishop3]

My thoughts exactly. That's why I voted for 6. If all the dominos fall in our favor, that is my best case scenario.

And then Dame returns for the playoffs and leads us to a championship!

 

[Everything Beagle]

2%? 7th
10%? 8th
50%? 9th

 

[blazerkor]

2%? 7th
10%? 8th
50%? 9th

What about 10th? I only ask because I don't even give us a 62% chance at making the play-in and you've given that to us for the 7-9 seed the odds have to get better including the 10 seed. I'd say it's a coin flip right now bewteen if we get to play more than the 82 games or just the 82 regular season games.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

It’s so hard to come up with a best case with so many new variables.

Simons and Ayton gone.

Young guys getting a bigger role.

Jrue added to the team.

I’m gonna say probably the 8th seed. Is there a potential to do better? Sure. If Sharpe explodes this year and Jrue returns to form, I could see us making it into the top 6.

If it was easy we all wouldn't be earning such big $ posting our expertise here.

 

[Everything Beagle]

What about 10th? I only ask because I don't even give us a 62% chance at making the play-in and you've given that to us for the 7-9 seed the odds have to get better including the 10 seed. I'd say it's a coin flip right now bewteen if we get to play more than the 82 games or just the 82 regular season games.

The odds don’t stack. 50% chance of 9th or better. We have a 50% chance of 10th or worse in my opinion, with 10% being 11th and 2% being 12th or worse

 

[e_blazer]

1977 on line one

Been there, done that. Want it again.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

I voted 4th.

I just think the NBA standings have much more variance than most suspect and many more surprises each year. Mem, Sac, PHX, Philly, etc were teams expected to be much better last couple years and every season we have a few of these surprises. Also a couple surprises of young teams like Detroit that greatly exceed expectations.

I think we have a deep enough roster to win at a decent pace throughout the 82 game season. I also expect us to try very hard all 82 games. Many teams will focus on health and not care about 4 vs 6 seed.

4th seed had 45 wins a few years ago. One of the byproducts of such a deep western conference is the top playoff teams won't have as many wins as a weak conference.

I think Dame mentoring will actually be a big benefit this year. We actually might have a better record this year than the following year as having him playing a new role with unknown performance could be tricky to find the right balance and lead to losses.

I expect Grant and others to accept a role much better with Dame here this season. We have a nice blend of youth & very unselfish vets (Jrue Timelord Thybulle) unlike the prior 3 seasons.

That said 4th seed is my high end expectations before HCP starts ridiculing me for such - Id probably rank 8 teams all likely to be above us. But outside the top 3-4 teams in the conference most the others have a lot of problems. Of course we could have big injuries and ultimately tank - but that's not part of a best case scenario projection.

OKC Hou are almost certainly above us
Den could have a Jokic injury
Min lost NAW depth and susceptible to injury
GS even older and not deep. They've had a lot of years with bad records
Dal AD extremely injury prone and were better than them with him/Kyrie out and Flagg learning
LAC super old
LAL Id bet against Ayton/Smart. Losing DFS hurts
SAS they might develop youth
Mem Bane loss is big
PHX Sac NOP Utah we're flat better than IMO

 

[BassPlaya]

* accurately representing what is natural or real
* able to see things as they really are and to deal with them in a practical way
* based on what is real rather than on what is wanted or hoped for : not impractical or visionary

Since every single outcome is possible, wouldn't likely be a better descriptive adjective than realistic?

Just seems impossible to offer a prediction and be realistic at the same time. But, since I dont make predictions....sorry....carry on.

 

[Mediocre Man]

IF the entire league stays healthy, I see

OKC
DEN
LAL
DAL
SAS
HOU
MIN
LAC
NOP

As all better than us. So best case, for me, is probably 8-10

 

[wizenheimer]

IF the entire league stays healthy, I see

OKC
DEN
LAL
DAL
SAS
HOU
MIN
LAC
NOP

As all better than us. So best case, for me, is probably 8-10

I'd replace the Pelicans with the Grizzlies

 

[SharpesTriumph]

IF the entire league stays healthy, I see

OKC
DEN
LAL
DAL
SAS
HOU
MIN
LAC
NOP

As all better than us. So best case, for me, is probably 8-10

What is the chance all 9 teams stay healthy? That seems to be about a guarantee to NOT happen.

Yes Blazers could get hurt. But we're just one team.

 

[Mediocre Man]

What is the chance all 9 teams stay healthy? That seems to be about a guarantee to NOT happen.

Yes Blazers could get hurt. But we're just one team.

You can’t guess injuries.

 

[inconceivable]

playin homecourt would surprise the nation but not me, playoffs would shock even most here but not me. I'm expecting Sharpe to announce himself this season.

 

[THE HCP]

My thoughts exactly. That's why I voted for 6. If all the dominos fall in our favor, that is my best case scenario.

I’m saying 10th. There are just TOO MANY talented teams in the West and we just ain’t one of ‘em. Now if we were in the East I’d say 8th

 

[THE HCP]

playin homecourt would surprise the nation but not me, playoffs would shock even most here but not me. I'm expecting Sharpe to announce himself this season.

So you just typed that if we were the 4th seed you wouldn’t be surprised. HOLY SHIT FAMS!!!!! You’re in for a looooooooooong season.

 

[Cugel]

Dream scenario is a 500 season

 

[Pinwheel1]

I hate jinxing the Blazers, but the older teams seem to get injured more often lately than the younger teams. Certainly, there are exceptions to that rule. (i.e New Orleans)

But I could actually see us finishing higher than a team like the Clippers, and at the same time getting swept by them in the playoffs.
The Clippers seem to be built more for the playoffs than the regular season.

Dallas is another team that could do worse if Klay and AD go down. (especially AD)

I do think New Orleans is due for some luck, though. But you never know.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

I hate jinxing the Blazers, but the older teams seem to get injured more often lately than the younger teams. Certainly, there are exceptions to that rule. (i.e New Orleans)

But I could actually see us finishing higher than a team like the Clippers, and at the same time getting swept by them in the playoffs.
The Clippers seem to be built more for the playoffs than the regular season.

Dallas is another team that could do worse if Klay and AD go down. (especially AD)

I do think New Orleans is due for some luck, though. But you never know.

Thing is New Orleans big acquisition last summer was Dejonte Murray... he tore his achilies so likely to miss this season too.

Zion yes is young but I'd say beyond injury prone. Their big rookie acquisition had surgery already and is out to training camp.

They also swapped CJ for Jordan Poole - not sure thats an upgrade.

They traded way Brandon Ingram and got back Bruce Brown/Olwynk - both of who were discarded.

I don't see how that Pelicans team is any good next season. I suppose if Zion is healthy and dominant all season they have a chance but that seems beyond unlikely. Even then they screwed up their supporting players.

Dumars and Troy Weaver are putting on a clinic of ineptitude.

 

[Everything Beagle]

You can’t guess injuries.

No but injury rates over large numbers can be looked at. Not asking you to do it but I’d be interested to see how many starters are injured for 20 or more games in a season, as a way of figuring out if there’s a consistent rate we can expect.

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

5th.
If we stay healthy, young guns explode, and a few teams get the injury bug, 5th.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I’m saying 10th. There are just TOO MANY talented teams in the West and we just ain’t one of ‘em. Now if we were in the East I’d say 8th

Based on records against each conference, Blazers would have been 8th in the east last season if they'd played 52 games against the east and only 30 against the west.

 

[blazerkor]

playin homecourt would surprise the nation but not me, playoffs would shock even most here but not me. I'm expecting Sharpe to announce himself this season.

 

[blazerkor]

So you just typed that if we were the 4th seed you wouldn’t be surprised. HOLY SHIT FAMS!!!!! You’re in for a looooooooooong season.

No sir, the guy said play-in home court wouldn't shock him... that's 7th seed. Which is still a lot higher than I would think but I think if everyone is healthy and both Scoot and Shaedon really make that jump... then maybe 7th seed could happen.

It's a bold claim but not an insane one like "I wouldn't be shocked if the Blazers were the 4th seed in the West." 4th seed would shock the hell out of all of us I would think.