Blazers called PHX about Shaq

[Crimson the Cat]

I don't think the Blazers can "defer" the cap space to next season. They have cap space right now while Aldridge and Roy are relatively inexpensive. By next off-season, both will have signed big extensions.

Actually I believe we could have some. We would have 10 players under contract, and even factoring in the large raises for our brightest (an assumption of $14M and $12M respectively), I think we'd have some cap space if we:

- renounced all of the exceptions
- added a 1 and a big this off season that was expiring
- added bit benchwarmers that would expire after this season too

I'm thinking like as much as $7M, especially if we trade away this year's first rounder and next. $5M if we didn't. $6M if we traded away just one of them.

 

[e_blazer]

I don't think the Blazers can "defer" the cap space to next season. They have cap space right now while Aldridge and Roy are relatively inexpensive. By next off-season, both will have signed big extensions.

Sure they could, if that's the direction that they want to go and if this rumor were true. Let's assume that's the plan and that they could get Shaq for a package of Webster, Sergio, Joel, Frye, and maybe a 2nd round pick. If they did that, the Blazers' salary situation could look something like:

Even allowing for a cap hold for next year's first round pick, the Blazers could have something like $16 million to play with in the summer of 2010. Obviously, there could be tweaks to replace Freeland and/or Koponen with 2nd round picks this summer, but you get the general idea.

 

[Minstrel]

Sure they could, if that's the direction that they want to go and if this rumor were true. Let's assume that's the plan and that they could get Shaq for a package of Webster, Sergio, Joel, Frye, and maybe a 2nd round pick. If they did that, the Blazers' salary situation could look something like:

Even allowing for a cap hold for next year's first round pick, the Blazers could have something like $16 million to play with in the summer of 2010. Obviously, there could be tweaks to replace Freeland and/or Koponen with 2nd round picks this summer, but you get the general idea.

Fair enough. Is $13.5 million the max contract for players of Roy's and Aldridge's experience level?

Though I think the main flaw in this scenario is that you're creating the most cap-friendly proposal for Portland...as well as the most talent-friendly proposal for Portland. Phoenix gets virtually nothing out of the deal except Przybilla, who is neither young nor better than Shaq. They'd have to really love Webster's talent, coming off a significant injury.

If Phoenix was willing to give Portland a huge expiring deal attached to a still-good player for essentially nothing, then yes, Portland can end up with significant cap space next season.

 

[STOMP]

Fair enough. Is $13.5 million the max contract for players of Roy's and Aldridge's experience level?

Though I think the main flaw in this scenario is that you're creating the most cap-friendly proposal for Portland...as well as the most talent-friendly proposal for Portland. Phoenix gets virtually nothing out of the deal except Przybilla, who is neither young nor better than Shaq. They'd have to really love Webster's talent, coming off a significant injury.

They also might be in the know of what Shaq's plans are post next season. If he's told them he's going to retire or go elsewhere as a UFA, then trading him for a starting 5 and other usable pieces could be a smart move for them. It's not like they are eyeballing a title next season... they might be looking to turn over their roster.

STOMP

 

[e_blazer]

Fair enough. Is $13.5 million the max contract for players of Roy's and Aldridge's experience level?

Pretty close. It was $13,758,000 last season. The exact amount depends on where the salary cap is set.

Though I think the main flaw in this scenario is that you're creating the most cap-friendly proposal for Portland...as well as the most talent-friendly proposal for Portland. Phoenix gets virtually nothing out of the deal except Przybilla, who is neither young nor better than Shaq. They'd have to really love Webster's talent, coming off a significant injury.

If Phoenix was willing to give Portland a huge expiring deal attached to a still-good player for essentially nothing, then yes, Portland can end up with significant cap space next season.

First, this isn't a scenario that I'm proposing. I'm just saying that if the Blazers are calling about Shaq, my bet is that it would be to try to construct such a cap position next year. Doesn't mean that the Suns would bite.

Second, I don't agree that Joel, Webster, Sergio, Frye, and a pick is essentially nothing. It's a pretty good restocking of the Suns' talent pool. Further, depending upon how the deal was structured, because Portland can take back more salary this summer than it gives up, the Suns could stand to have a pretty healthy cash savings next season by making the trade. As we Blazer fans know, cash savings has been enough in the past for the Suns to give up some valuable draft picks and players. In these tough economic times, it might be really attractive given that the Suns aren't likely to make much noise again next season.

Last, please note that in my original post I said that I thought the most likely thing from a purely basketball standpoint is for the Suns to keep Shaq and be in a position to play the FA market in 2010 themselves.

 

[Minstrel]

They also might be in the know of what Shaq's plans are post next season. If he's told them he's going to retire or go elsewhere as a UFA, then trading him for a starting 5 and other usable pieces could be a smart move for them. It's not like they are eyeballing a title next season... they might be looking to turn over their roster.

Yeah, I just don't think any of those pieces are useful to a rebuilding team. Przybilla will be useful beyond next season, but is not a prime piece for a team starting a complete reconstruction. I don't think Rodriguez or Webster have much value, really (though, of course, there are people who disagree with me on that). Frye will be a UFA and his on-court production has become abysmal.

IMO, if what they want is to tear down and rebuild, they'd be better off letting Shaq walk and getting the salary space back. Unless they can trade Shaq for several good young players, which this deal doesn't offer.

 

[Minstrel]

First, this isn't a scenario that I'm proposing. I'm just saying that if the Blazers are calling about Shaq, my bet is that it would be to try to construct such a cap position next year. Doesn't mean that the Suns would bite.

Fair enough, I'm just not sure I see the analytic value in a hypothetical situation that the other team is extremely unlikely to go for.

Second, I don't agree that Joel, Webster, Sergio, Frye, and a pick is essentially nothing. It's a pretty good restocking of the Suns' talent pool.

The only player who's average or above average is Przybilla and he's going to be 30 next year. I wouldn't call that a restocking of their talent pool. I'd call that downgrading at center and taking on a bunch of roster flotsam and jetsam.

Further, depending upon how the deal was structured, because Portland can take back more salary this summer than it gives up, the Suns could stand to have a pretty healthy cash savings next season by making the trade. As we Blazer fans know, cash savings has been enough in the past for the Suns to give up some valuable draft picks and players. In these tough economic times, it might be really attractive given that the Suns aren't likely to make much noise again next season.

It's possible. I don't think they'd give up a useful player and big salary/cap relief next off-season for smaller savings today. But one never knows.

 

[e_blazer]

All I was trying to do was to provide some reasoning as to why KP might have called about Shaq. If I were him, looking at the talent pool available next summer, I'd think it was worth a call to find out how hungry the Suns might be to save some cash next year.

I think you're underestimating the value of Webster, but then what do either of us have to base our opinions on other than our own observations? Maybe the Blazers would have to throw in Bayless or Fernandez...in which case I'd be opposed.

You're right. One never knows, and that's why it would be worth a phone call...which is all that I was trying to say.

 

[hasoos]

Hey they never said it was business. Maybe it was a prank call.

KP: Hello Steve?

Steve Kerr: Yea this is Steve.

KP: Is your refridgerator running?

Steve Kerr: Yes. Who is this?

KP: Well you better tell that fat pile of crap Shaq to quit chasing it.

 

[Minstrel]

All I was trying to do was to provide some reasoning as to why KP might have called about Shaq.
...
You're right. One never knows, and that's why it would be worth a phone call...which is all that I was trying to say.

Ah. I wasn't troubled by Pritchard putting in a call. I like the idea of him exploring all sorts of options, seeing the lay of the land. I was just not convinced that a Shaq deal will realistically lead to significant cap space next year. Yes, it is possible if Phoenix agreed to a certain deal, but it would likely have to be a deal that doesn't really help them (in my opinion) and thus is not very realistic.

 

[e_blazer]

Ah. I wasn't troubled by Pritchard putting in a call. I like the idea of him exploring all sorts of options, seeing the lay of the land. I was just not convinced that a Shaq deal will realistically lead to significant cap space next year. Yes, it is possible if Phoenix agreed to a certain deal, but it would likely have to be a deal that doesn't really help them (in my opinion) and thus is not very realistic.

If GMs only called about deals where message board devotees thought fair value was being exchanged, KG would still be in Minnesota, Ray Allen would be playing in OKC, Pau Gasol would be in Memphis...etc., etc., etc.

Realism is in the eyes of the GMs and the owners. Given the economic climate, I think we'll see some deals this summer that won't pass your "realism" test.

 

[Minstrel]

If GMs only called about deals where message board devotees thought fair value was being exchanged, KG would still be in Minnesota, Ray Allen would be playing in OKC, Pau Gasol would be in Memphis...etc., etc., etc.

Again, you're confused. As I said, I like the idea of Pritchard calling and exploring all sorts of options. I said that explicitly to clear up this misconception you have of my position. I am in no way saying Pritchard shouldn't be making such a call.

And sure, lopsided deals happen. I didn't say it was impossible. "Not realistic" simply refers to a high degree of unlikelihood. It doesn't mean that there's a zero chance of it happening.

My position is that attaining Shaq is not likely to produce big cap space next season. Your deal structure of how it could happen doesn't change my mind, since I consider such a deal to be very unlikely. That's all. My position has nothing to do with what Pritchard should and shouldn't be discussing with other GMs.

 

[e_blazer]

That's a whole lot of conversation to say that we're pretty much in agreement.

 

[gambitnut]

While I suppose a platoon of Shaq and Oden at center would give us the biggest, strongest center rotation in the league, the center position isn't exactly a weakness for us.

The only things bigger than Shaq's ass these days are his ego and his contract. He's set to make $20 million next season, and is supposedly looking for a 2-year extension. We'd basically have to trade at least two players, likely more (Przybilla + Outlaw + ???) to get Shaq, and would use all of our cap space in the process - to upgrade a position where we're already strong.

And, Shaq has a history of bashing young big men (Howard and Oden) and in spite of his age seems very immature at times (How's my ass taste?). I'm not sure he'd make a good mentor for Oden - who he seems to view as a potential rival.

Of course, if we could then turn around a move Shaq for an elite PG or SF, that would be a different story.

BNM

I think Shaq would be a good mentor for Oden. He could teach him how to use his big body. He could teach him how to get calls from the refs and stop getting calls against him. He could teach him how to relax, goof off and have fun. I agree though that finding a deal for him isn't easy though, and I also agree that center is a low priority for us right now. I'd much rather trade Outlaw than Webster, but I'd still want a way to replace Outlaw's role on our team. It was much easier when we had Raef's contract.

 

[e_blazer]

Ah. I wasn't troubled by Pritchard putting in a call. I like the idea of him exploring all sorts of options, seeing the lay of the land. I was just not convinced that a Shaq deal will realistically lead to significant cap space next year. Yes, it is possible if Phoenix agreed to a certain deal, but it would likely have to be a deal that doesn't really help them (in my opinion) and thus is not very realistic.

I see the Suns "held out" for a package of Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic.

Sure beats the package of Joel, Webster, Sergio, and maybe Frye that I threw out there.

 

[hasoos]

Hell I almost wonder if acquiring Shaq and his salary for the last few years of his career just to keep him off other teams might have been worth it.

 

[LittleAlex]

I see the Suns "held out" for a package of Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic.

Sure beats the package of Joel, Webster, Sergio, and maybe Frye that I threw out there.

This gives lie to the idea that expiring contracts are not worth all that much. Look at what two of them got Cleveland.

Can anyone tell me a similar deal couldn't have been done for RLEC now?

 

[e_blazer]

This gives lie to the idea that expiring contracts are not worth all that much. Look at what two of them got Cleveland.

Can anyone tell me a similar deal couldn't have been done for RLEC now?

To be fair to KP (and I know that's not a prerequisite around here), this deal for Shaq couldn't have been made prior to the trade deadline. The Suns still were in the thick of the playoff hunt. Teams are more likely to make a trade for a significant player after the season ends.

 

[hasoos]

To be fair to KP (and I know that's not a prerequisite around here), this deal for Shaq couldn't have been made prior to the trade deadline. The Suns still were in the thick of the playoff hunt. Teams are more likely to make a trade for a significant player after the season ends.

This wouldn't be the first time a team resigned a player for the purpose of trading them for salary cap purposes. Dallas did it with Keith Van Horn a few years ago. Provided Raef has not filed his retirement papers, it is still possible.