Blazers getting 5th seed is VERY real

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KingSpeed

KingSpeed

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So we are four games back but 7 of our last 10 are at home. Meanwhile, Memphis must play SA twice, Warriors twice, and the Bulls, Clippers, and Mavericks. The tiebreaker is conf record. We're both 25-20 but we are likely to pass them given the schedule.
 
I don't think the Blazers will go better than 5-5 in their last ten games.
 
You should try betting HCP again. Make him go on the show Talkin' Ball.
Do it Kingspeed!
 
@ LAC - L (Clippers have lost 3 straight, and are only 3-7 in their last 10 games. This is winnable.)
vs Phi - W
vs Sac - W
vs Bos - L (Boston has won 3 straight, but are only 5-5 in their last 10 games. This is winnable.)
vs Mia - L
@ GSW - L
@ Sac - W
vs OKC - L
vs Min - W
vs Den - W

I see us going 5-5, possible 6-4 to finish out the year. 42-40 for the season. That should be good enough for the Blazers to hold on to that 6th seed.

Looking at the schedules for Dallas, Utah, and Houston - Houston has a tough finish. Houston will be on the outside looking in. What a waste of a year for Houston. Dallas and Utah will tread water and hold on to their current spots.

Memphis has a tough finish with GSW twice, SAS twice, and Toronto once. They may slide a couple of games back, but I don't think we can muster enough wins to catch them for that 5th spot.

I'm guessing Blazers will be matched up against OKC in the first round. I'm okay with that. Chip and a chair! Let's show 'em what we got!!
 
If we beat the Clips, I see us losing only 2 games the rest of the way. 45-37 = 5 seed. We might even win out. Geezus- we're not losing to Boston and Miami at home, lol.
 
KingAlbertoJrSpeed said:
If we beat the Clips, I see us losing only 2 games the rest of the way. 45-37 = 5 seed. We might even win out. Geezus- we're not losing to Boston and Miami at home, lol.
Click to expand...

Miami yes...

Boston I have my reservations about. That is a really, really solid team.
 
I don't think so. Blazers probably finish 43 - 39, good for 6th place.
Too bad they can't make 5th, playing the Clips could possibly be a good series.
 
Last edited:
KingAlbertoJrSpeed said:
If we beat the Clips, I see us losing only 2 games the rest of the way. 45-37 = 5 seed. We might even win out. Geezus- we're not losing to Boston and Miami at home, lol.
Click to expand...

Boston crushed us. They have the perfect backcourt to counter ours.
 
All of them except GSW are realistically winnable (and I'd say if GSW was at home we could win it too). The trick is MEM needs to lose a couple games they shouldn't lose, as well, for us to pass them for 5th. Fivethirtyeight.com has us winning 43, and Memphis winning 44. That's really damn close. One extra slipup and one extra win in either direction will determine 5th, which boggles my mind.
 
BlazerCaravan said:
All of them except GSW are realistically winnable (and I'd say if GSW was at home we could win it too). The trick is MEM needs to lose a couple games they shouldn't lose, as well, for us to pass them for 5th. Fivethirtyeight.com has us winning 43, and Memphis winning 44. That's really damn close. One extra slipup and one extra win in either direction will determine 5th, which boggles my mind.
Click to expand...

Like the lakers the other night? ;)
 
Natebishop3 said:
Boston crushed us. They have the perfect backcourt to counter ours.
Click to expand...

Yes they crushed us and that is why we will win that game. Extra incentive. They are 17-18 on the road this year, so even though it will be a tough game, I think we will be favored.

I think we can go 7-3 or 6-4. Hard to guess at the end of the year when teams are tanking or resting players depending on whether their draft/playoff position could change. (i.e OKC's position is doubtful to change at that point...they might rest Durrant)
 
42N8Bounce said:
@ LAC - L (Clippers have lost 3 straight, and are only 3-7 in their last 10 games. This is winnable.)
vs Phi - W
vs Sac - W
vs Bos - L (Boston has won 3 straight, but are only 5-5 in their last 10 games. This is winnable.)
vs Mia - L
@ GSW - L
@ Sac - W
vs OKC - L
vs Min - W
vs Den - W

I see us going 5-5, possible 6-4 to finish out the year. 42-40 for the season. That should be good enough for the Blazers to hold on to that 6th seed.

Looking at the schedules for Dallas, Utah, and Houston - Houston has a tough finish. Houston will be on the outside looking in. What a waste of a year for Houston. Dallas and Utah will tread water and hold on to their current spots.

Memphis has a tough finish with GSW twice, SAS twice, and Toronto once. They may slide a couple of games back, but I don't think we can muster enough wins to catch them for that 5th spot.

I'm guessing Blazers will be matched up against OKC in the first round. I'm okay with that. Chip and a chair! Let's show 'em what we got!!
Click to expand...

OKC will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and on a back to back as well. They will be locked into the 3rd seed with nothing to play for so maybe they rest guys.

The Clippers game tonight is the toughest, but the Boston and Miami games you list as losses are certainly winnable. I really have no idea what to expect; I could see us going anywhere from 4-6 to 8-2 in this stretch. Memphis could very well go 2-8 in their last ten. If they go 3-7 and we go 7-3; both certainly plausible, we are the 5th seed.

So while I say odds are we won't catch Memphis, its certainly in play.
 
If we go 7-3 (possible) and Grizz go 3-7 (very likely), we're the 5th seed. It's that simple.
 
TIEBREAKER BASIS WHEN TWO TEAMS ARE TIED:

(1A) Better winning percentage in games against each other
(2A) Division winner (this criterion is applied regardless of whether the tied teams are in the same division)
(3A) Better winning percentage against teams in own division (only if tied teams are in same division)
(4A) Better winning percentage against teams in own conference
(5A) Better winning percentage against teams eligible for playoffs in own conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff position)
(6A) Better winning percentage against teams eligible for playoffs in opposite conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff position)
(7A) Better net result of total points scored less total points allowed against all opponents (point differential).

TIEBREAKER BASIS WHEN MORE THAN TWO TEAMS ARE TIED:

(1B) Division winner (this criterion is applied regardless of whether the tied teams are in the same division)
(2B) Better winning percentage in games against each other
(3B) Better winning percentage against teams in own division (only if tied teams are in same division)
(4B) Better winning percentage against teams in own conference
(5B) Better winning percentage against teams eligible for playoffs in own conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff position)
(6B) Better net result of total points scored less total points allowed against all opponents (point differential).

GUIDELINES FOR APPLYING TIE-BREAK CRITERIA:

(1) (a) Ties to determine the division winners must be broken before any other ties.
(b) When a tie must be broken to determine a division winner, the results of the tie-break shall be used to determine only the division winner, and not for any other purpose.

(2) If a tie involves more than two teams, the tie-break criteria in subparagraph b. shall be applied in the order set forth therein until the first to occur of the following:
(a) Each of the tied teams has a different winning percentage or point differential under the applicable tie-break criterion (a "complete" breaking of the tie). In this circumstance, the team with the best winning percentage or point differential under the criterion will be awarded the best playoff position, the team with the next-best winning percentage or point differential will be awarded the next-best playoff position, and so on, and no further application of the tie-break criteria will be required.

--OR--

(b) One or more (but not all) of the tied teams has a different winning percentage or point differential under the applicable tie-break criterion (a "partial" breaking of the tie). In this circumstance: (x) any team(s) that performed better under the applicable criterion than any other team(s) will be awarded a higher playoff position than such other team(s); and (y) teams that had equivalent performance under the applicable criterion will remain tied, and such remaining tie(s) will be broken by applying, from the beginning, the criteria in subparagraph a.(1)-(6) above (for any remaining tie involving only two teams) or subparagraph b.(1)-(5) above (for any remaining tie involving more than two teams) and the guidelines set forth in this subparagraph c.

(3) If application of the criteria in subparagraph a. or b. does not result in the breaking of a tie, the playoff positions of the tied teams will be determined by a random drawing.

http://www.nba.com/standings/team_record_comparison/conferenceNew_Std_Cnf.html?ls=iref:nba:gnav
 
We will have better conf record. That will be the tiebreaker as neither are div leaders and we don't play in the same division.
 
At this point I wont be surprised if Memphis drops to 9 and Houston gets 8th. All we have to do at this point is win out and hope memphis loses 1 more. We control our fate. I cant wait for okc game. If we win I feel good as 5th seed if we lose, we might see them in the 1st round, exciting!
 
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