The contenders: Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Clippers, Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs
Within the next tier, rising West powers meet the conference's aging dynasties. The Clippers are most obviously on the ascent after adding Paul and Chauncey Billups to a promising young core. The roster still has major holes with little talent of note behind frontcourt starters Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, and any free agents the Clippers might sign to add depth would be stopgap solutions.
Paul and Billups have to figure out how to coexist in the backcourt after both dominated the ball in the past, and Vinny Del Negro is in charge of making this mix work. Still, the Clippers have so much dynamic talent that they likely will find their way into the battle for home-court advantage. In fact, SCHOENE pegs them as the conference's second-best team after Oklahoma City.
Even as defending champions, the Mavericks will undergo a season of transition, biding their time until they can get under the cap next summer. In the meantime, adding Lamar Odom, Vince Carter and Delonte West was a terrific save after Tyson Chandler decided to leave for a lucrative, long-term offer from the New York Knicks.
Dallas might be as good in the 2011-12 regular season as in 2010-11, but the kind of unexpected postseason dominance the Mavericks enjoyed last season is unlikely because they are short on quality size in the middle. The Spurs have one title run left in them. Should veterans Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker hold up during the compact season, San Antonio could play with anyone in the conference. A key injury might take the Spurs out of the running, however.
Last in this group is Portland. Once on the same track as Oklahoma City, the Blazers' young core was derailed by injuries to Greg Oden and Brandon Roy. That shouldn't overshadow the quality talent Portland still has available. The Blazers' top seven of guards Raymond Felton, Wesley Matthews and Jamal Crawford, forwards LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum and Gerald Wallace and center Marcus Camby goes as deep as any other in the league. Nate McMillan got more support in the frontcourt with the additions of Craig Smith and Kurt Thomas and will have tremendous lineup flexibility.