Blazers remaining schedule

[Dan Marang]

Hey all- considering the Blazers are at the halfway point and people are wanting to forecast where the Blazers will end up at the end of the season I thought I'd give a quick run down of the numbers- they may or may not help you win a bet!

19 road games - 13 road games vs >.500 opps (tough road schedule!)

22 home games - 10 home games vs >.500 opps (not much easier at home)

18 vs -.500 teams (not as many games vs the bottom of the barrel)

23 vs >.500 teams (a lot of games remaining against top tier teams)

.507 combined W% of remaing Opps - one of the toughest schedules down the stretch of the season.

Take a look at this stretch: 4 out of 16 at home and only the Wizards, Pelicans, and Knicks as -.500 teams.

Thu, Feb 25, 2016 10:30p EST Houston Rockets
Sat, Feb 27, 2016 8:00p EST @ Chicago Bulls
Sun, Feb 28, 2016 6:00p EST @ Indiana Pacers
Tue, Mar 1, 2016 7:30p EST @ New York Knicks
Wed, Mar 2, 2016 7:30p EST @ Boston Celtics
Fri, Mar 4, 2016 7:30p EST @ Toronto Raptors
Sun, Mar 6, 2016 6:00p EST @ Detroit Pistons
Tue, Mar 8, 2016 10:00p EST Washington Wizards
Fri, Mar 11, 2016 10:30p EST @ Golden State Warriors
Sat, Mar 12, 2016 10:30p EST Orlando Magic
Mon, Mar 14, 2016 8:00p EST @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Thu, Mar 17, 2016 8:30p EST @ San Antonio Spurs
Fri, Mar 18, 2016 8:00p EST @ New Orleans Pelicans
Sun, Mar 20, 2016 4:00p EST @ Dallas Mavericks
Wed, Mar 23, 2016 10:30p EST Dallas Mavericks
Thu, Mar 24, 2016 10:30p EST @ Los Angeles Clippers

17 wins in the first half was overachieving, slightly. Considering the Blazers crazy record in close games- they've won more by 9+ than they've won in the clutch (within 5pts)- my season prediction was 31-33 wins, and I'm sticking with that. The next 2 weeks is a pretty easy bit of the schedule, but after that it is absolutely brutal. I've got my hat on 15 wins, 18- if a lot breaks right. I've run a few simulations- the lowest I expect the Blazers to finish - is 24th in the league (meaning 6th pick) but that happens rarely. It's really a toss up between the 7th, 8th, 9th, & 10th picks- with it splitting the 8th/9th picks most often. It'll be interesting to say the least.

Considering what you see here, where do you all see the Blazers finishing?

 

[Nikolokolus]

I see them playing about .400 ball, maybe 15 more wins which puts them at 32 (+4 over my prediction of 28).

 

[BlazerBeav]

Well that's an unfortunate bit of reality right there.

 

[B-Roy]

Well that's an unfortunate bit of reality right there.

Or fortunate, depending on your outlook.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Not that these are predictions, but who I'd expect to win a 7 game series if all 7 games were played at the location of the game scheduled:
@BRK (W), @PHI (W), @WAS (L), vATL (W), vLAL (W), vSAC (W), vCHA (W), vMIN (W), vMIL (W), vTOR (L), @HOU (L), @MEM (L), vHOU (W), vGSW (L), vUTA (W), vBRK (W), vHOU (W)
(Yes, I think we're the favorites in 12 of our next 17 games, and would not be surprised if we're sitting at 29-29 on Feb. 26. Then the bottom falls out...)
@CHI (L), @IND (L), @NYK (L), @BOS (L), @TOR (L), @DET (L), vWAS (L), @GSW (L), vORL (W), @OKC (L), @SAS (L), @NOP (W), @DAL (L), vDAL (W), @LAC (L)
(After being favored in 12 of 17, we'll probably be underdogs in 12 of 15. Ouch.)
vPHI (W), vSAC (W), vBOS (W), vMIA (W), @GSW (L), @SAC (W), vOKC (L), vMIN (W), vDEN (W).
(A relatively easy stretch to finish, where we can probably win 8 of 10, depending on whether or not we're "tanking".)

If we stay healthy and motivated, I think we win 23 of the next 41.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I think the Blazers currently have 4 wins over teams with .500 or better records . . .

 

[KeepOnRollin]

I think the Blazers currently have 4 wins over teams with .500 or better records . . .

Serious question that I don't know off-hand. How many games have we played against teams currently over .500 though? I would imagine it isn't any more than 10-12. But it would be interesting to find out the true number.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Serious question that I don't know off-hand. How many games have we played against teams currently over .500 though? I would imagine it isn't any more than 10-12. But it would be interesting to find out the true number.

That's actually a very good question. If I wasn't at work and had the time, I'd look it up.

 

[blue9]

Serious question that I don't know off-hand. How many games have we played against teams currently over .500 though? I would imagine it isn't any more than 10-12. But it would be interesting to find out the true number.

21.

22 if you include CHA who was over 500 when we played them.

 

[e_blazer]

I think the Blazers win 9-10 of their games before the All-Star break. Tell me who's on the roster after the trade deadline and I'll give my projection for those games.

 

[Strenuus]

21.

22 if you include CHA who was over 500 when we played them.

Eeep.

Lotto balls, please!

 

[HolyBackboard]

I've still got the Blazers in the postseason. The West is just that bad and we've got the best player of the bunch (of teams competing for 8th). They'll pull out some victories that we won't see coming (like OKC). It really all depends on this upcoming 11 games (including last night's win over Utah). If they can go 8-3 over that span, they will be sitting pretty.

 

[TBpup]

So 4-17 or 4-18 against over .500 teams? That makes me want to keep our pick even more....and the higher that pick is, the better. If that doesn't scream "miss the playoffs", I don't know what does. All of those wins were also at home where if they somehow made the playoffs, they certainly wouldn't have HCA. Somehow, they really need to get down to that #4-6 range versus the #10-14 range they are flirting with.

 

[Strenuus]

So 4-17 or 4-18 against over .500 teams? That makes me want to keep our pick even more....and the higher that pick is, the better. If that doesn't scream "miss the playoffs", I don't know what does. All of those wins were also at home where if they somehow made the playoffs, they certainly wouldn't have HCA. Somehow, they really need to get down to that #4-6 range versus the #10-14 range they are flirting with.

Ding ding ding. LOGIC!

 

[Dan Marang]

Ding ding ding. LOGIC!

I haven't really made my opinion known on this- but I'm all for the "stealth tank" approach. By that I mean, you're not going out to lose games- not throwing a lineup that is nowhere close to an NBA lineup (Hi 76ers!) with the sole purpose of bumping your lottery chances up. I think the Blazers made strategic moves that al but guarantee keeping the lottery pick. I've seen arguments for/against starting Meyers, the same for Plumlee and Vonleh- ideas of moving CJ to the bench.. all of which seem minimal changes at best.

What I think they're focused on is the development of players- assets even. If they mature they become a valuable commodity both to the team and the league as a whole. Currently outside of Dame and to a lesser extent, CJ- the Blazers don't have clear cut assets that are valued on the open market (that would demand a sizable return). In continually playing the younger players- you get the best of both worlds- real world exposure and playing time, accompanied with the chance at developing a player.

With all of that in mind- unless both Dame and CJ get hurt for any length of time- there's no way the Blazers can crack that top 5 record wise. The 76ers, Lakers, Nets, Suns, and Pelicans, and now Timberwolves are mixing it up down there- and of those teams we all thought the 76ers/Lakers were a train wreck so there's the 1-2 spots. The Nets are a complete dumpster fire with little to no redeeming quality- and in order to keep their pick I believe they have to finish bottom 3- I'll have to double check that one though... The Suns having lost their best player and now a petulant man child in one of the Morri (yes, Morri) twins basically packing his ball up any going home- and an owner who blames millennials (can't make this stuff up) I'd say it's safe to say they'll continue to tumble. The Pelicans have arguably (okay, not arguably) the worst coach in the league in Alvin Gentry- that alone costs them games. Then you've got the young and plucky TWolves... there's too much talent on this team for them not to go on a little bit of a run- but not enough to get out of the hole they've dug themselves (1-9 in their last 10). Right there you can see the bottom 5 pretty hard to crack... again unless something happens to Dame/CJ or mgmt decides to "rest" some of their top tier players, but I don't get that feeling from Olshey.

Honestly, I feel the 'best' the Blazers can do is hope for 6th and then get some luck with the ping pong balls (I think in that 6-8 territory they're chances of landing in the Top 3 are somewhere around 10% if I remember correctly) otherwise it's up to Olshey to work some draft magic in the 8-11 range.

 

[blue9]

I haven't really made my opinion known on this- but I'm all for the "stealth tank" approach. By that I mean, you're not going out to lose games- not throwing a lineup that is nowhere close to an NBA lineup (Hi 76ers!) with the sole purpose of bumping your lottery chances up. I think the Blazers made strategic moves that al but guarantee keeping the lottery pick. I've seen arguments for/against starting Meyers, the same for Plumlee and Vonleh- ideas of moving CJ to the bench.. all of which seem minimal changes at best.

What I think they're focused on is the development of players- assets even. If they mature they become a valuable commodity both to the team and the league as a whole. Currently outside of Dame and to a lesser extent, CJ- the Blazers don't have clear cut assets that are valued on the open market (that would demand a sizable return). In continually playing the younger players- you get the best of both worlds- real world exposure and playing time, accompanied with the chance at developing a player.

And this is exactly what the "pro-tankers" have been asking for - focus on development, not losing. The losing will come on its own. But so far, we're focused on winning at the expense of development, IMO.

 

[Strenuus]

I haven't really made my opinion known on this- but I'm all for the "stealth tank" approach. By that I mean, you're not going out to lose games- not throwing a lineup that is nowhere close to an NBA lineup (Hi 76ers!) with the sole purpose of bumping your lottery chances up. I think the Blazers made strategic moves that al but guarantee keeping the lottery pick. I've seen arguments for/against starting Meyers, the same for Plumlee and Vonleh- ideas of moving CJ to the bench.. all of which seem minimal changes at best.

What I think they're focused on is the development of players- assets even. If they mature they become a valuable commodity both to the team and the league as a whole. Currently outside of Dame and to a lesser extent, CJ- the Blazers don't have clear cut assets that are valued on the open market (that would demand a sizable return). In continually playing the younger players- you get the best of both worlds- real world exposure and playing time, accompanied with the chance at developing a player.

With all of that in mind- unless both Dame and CJ get hurt for any length of time- there's no way the Blazers can crack that top 5 record wise. The 76ers, Lakers, Nets, Suns, and Pelicans, and now Timberwolves are mixing it up down there- and of those teams we all thought the 76ers/Lakers were a train wreck so there's the 1-2 spots. The Nets are a complete dumpster fire with little to no redeeming quality- and in order to keep their pick I believe they have to finish bottom 3- I'll have to double check that one though... The Suns having lost their best player and now a petulant man child in one of the Morri (yes, Morri) twins basically packing his ball up any going home- and an owner who blames millennials (can't make this stuff up) I'd say it's safe to say they'll continue to tumble. The Pelicans have arguably (okay, not arguably) the worst coach in the league in Alvin Gentry- that alone costs them games. Then you've got the young and plucky TWolves... there's too much talent on this team for them not to go on a little bit of a run- but not enough to get out of the hole they've dug themselves (1-9 in their last 10). Right there you can see the bottom 5 pretty hard to crack... again unless something happens to Dame/CJ or mgmt decides to "rest" some of their top tier players, but I don't get that feeling from Olshey.

Honestly, I feel the 'best' the Blazers can do is hope for 6th and then get some luck with the ping pong balls (I think in that 6-8 territory they're chances of landing in the Top 3 are somewhere around 10% if I remember correctly) otherwise it's up to Olshey to work some draft magic in the 8-11 range.

Thanks for articulating this.

Yeah, We probably wont get a top 3 pick, but not getting a pick at ALL would be horrible, IMO.

 

[Strenuus]

And this is exactly what the "pro-tankers" have been asking for - focus on development, not losing. The losing will come on its own. But so far, we're focused on winning at the expense of development, IMO.

Yes yes yes. Logic!!!!!!

 

[B-Roy]

Vonleh should play the entire game if we're trying to stealth tank.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

according to ESPN, we're currently 5-16 vs. +.500 teams.
http://espn.go.com/nba/standings/_/view/expanded

As for playoffs, I predicted 35 wins, and that seems to be about right. So, in my mind the question is... does 35 wins get us in? I sincerely doubt it. We'll probably keep our pick, but it won't be great. That's the lay of the land, like it or not. Of course, injuries and the trade deadline could change things. However, considering that making the playoffs loses us a big asset, I wouldn't be surprised to see Neil trade something (like cap space and/or a player or two) for future assets (like draft picks). That would solidify us not making the playoffs, and benefit next year (or the year after). That is, if he can't trade for Cousins

 

[KeepOnRollin]

Frazier should play the entire game if we're trying to stealth tank.

FTFY

 

[BBert]

Exactly: Focus on development and player evaluation, not winning or losing.

 

[Strenuus]

Vonleh should play the entire game if we're trying to stealth tank.

That's not stealth tanking though...

Though, it's a great way to develop him!

 

[B-Roy]

That's not stealth tanking though...

Though, it's a great way to develop him!

36 Minutes? I mean, Vonleh is nigh useless when he's playing. But hey, he's 20 and a former lotto pick, so maybe he becomes something.

 

[Dan Marang]

according to ESPN, we're currently 5-16 vs. +.500 teams.
http://espn.go.com/nba/standings/_/view/expanded

As for playoffs, I predicted 35 wins, and that seems to be about right. So, in my mind the question is... does 35 wins get us in? I sincerely doubt it. We'll probably keep our pick, but it won't be great. That's the lay of the land, like it or not. Of course, injuries and the trade deadline could change things. However, considering that making the playoffs loses us a big asset, I wouldn't be surprised to see Neil trade something (like cap space and/or a player or two) for future assets (like draft picks). That would solidify us not making the playoffs, and benefit next year (or the year after). That is, if he can't trade for Cousins

I did the math in my very first post here- I'll see if I can link it, but the crux of it is this- the 8th seed looks like it's going to be ~39 wins (the exact math was somewhere around 39.2) Unless some pretty serious regression takes place or other mitigating factors arise- I'm pretty certain that holds up. When you get into that 35 win territory, at that point I feel you're just sacrificing lottery position.

 

[TBpup]

according to ESPN, we're currently 5-16 vs. +.500 teams.
http://espn.go.com/nba/standings/_/view/expanded

Yes...

Memphis, Clippers, Pacers, Cavs and Thunder...all at Home.

 

[Strenuus]

36 Minutes? I mean, Vonleh is nigh useless when he's playing. But hey, he's 20 and a former lotto pick, so maybe he becomes something.

The season is all about development, is it not?

 

[Strenuus]

Yes...

Memphis, Clippers, Pacers, Cavs and Thunder...all at Home.

And we got crushed by them at home too.

 

[TBpup]

36 Minutes? I mean, Vonleh is nigh useless when he's playing. But hey, he's 20 and a former lotto pick, so maybe he becomes something.

20, has yet to play 60 games....and yet shows signs of ability that few have. He had very good handles for a PF, can shoot with either hand in the post, has a nice shot from the outside and before this year, hit that shot quite well. He is lacking confidence to start with and the Blazers offense isn't set up to get the 'Bigs' many looks, development or increased confidence. Most of the time they run around setting picks and when they do get the ball, are looking to get it back to Dame/CJ as fast as possible.

I'd like to see him with 6-8 good looks a game for several games in a row and see what happens. As of now, he gets 1 look early and that's it for the rest of the game unless he puts back an offensive rebound.

 

[B-Roy]

The season is all about development, is it not?

Yeah which is why I'm okay with him playing at all. Vonleh wouldn't get any minutes on an actual playoff team.