Bush Urges OPEC to Pump More Gas

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Shapecity

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<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>RIYADH, Saudi Arabia - President Bush warned Tuesday that surging oil prices threaten the U.S. economy and urged OPEC nations to boost their output. His plea drew little sympathy from oil-rich Saudi Arabia, which said production levels appear normal.

Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also pressed Arab countries to do more to reach out to Israel and help achieve a Mideast peace agreement before the president's term runs out next January. Avoiding specific orders to Arab allies, Rice said the delicate question of diplomatic relations with Israel, the Arab world's historical enemy, was "another matter and undoubtedly down the road."

Saudi Arabia's foreign minister wondered what more could be expected of them than they are already doing. But Bush, nearing the end of an eight-day Mideast trip, expressed confidence that Arab countries would support both sides in an Israeli-Palestinian accord — backing Washington sees as crucial to striking and sustaining any agreement. "They want to see a deal done," Bush said. "And they want progress because the issue frustrates them."

As economic anxiety grows in the U.S. and dominates the presidential campaign, Bush is under increasing pressure. After a stop in Egypt on Wednesday, Bush returns home to weigh whether to join Democrats and Republicans in offering some sort of short-term economic stimulus package.

He promised to tell Saudi King Abdullah that American families are being hurt by oil prices that have topped $100 a barrel, more than three times what they were when he took office.

"These are times of economic uncertainty but I have confidence in the future — immediate future," Bush said when asked if the U.S. was sliding toward a recession, as some economists fear.

In public, the same Bush whose early career was in the Texas oilfields and who said during his 2000 presidential campaign that the president must "jawbone" oil-producing nations to drop rates had been silent about the issue on this eight-day trip until Tuesday.

He raised the subject here, in the country with the world's largest supply of oil, during a morning meeting with Saudi business leaders, saying oil prices were very high and "tough on our economy." He spoke more directly, but still gently, in an afternoon meeting with reporters who were unexpectedly summoned to the guest palace where he stayed one of his two nights.

"I hope that OPEC, if possible, understands that if they could put more supply on the market it would be helpful," he said.

Bush conceded that, in reality, increasing ouput would be difficult. The demand for oil, particularly from China and India, is stretching available supplies, he said. And "a lot of these oil-producing countries are full out" in terms of what they can produce, he said.

Besides, any increase may not have a big effect on prices, as many economists say the key factor driving them is increased demand, not supply.

In a chilly response to Bush, Saudi Arabia's oil minister, Ali Naimi, told reporters the kingdom would raise production levels only when the market justifies it and that today's inventory seems normal.

Bush met Abdullah for a second day at his weekend retreat and farm in the desert. At the stables where 260 Arabian horses are kept in air-conditioned stalls, Bush was treated to a trainer parading sleek horses around a showing ring. The president spent the night at the farm in a return gesture for the king's stays, while crown prince, at Bush's ranch in Texas.

Bush couched his concern about oil prices both in terms of the pain suffered by U.S. consumers and the possible consequences of that for Saudi Arabia. "It could cause this economy to slow down," Bush said. "If the economy slows down, there will be less barrels of oil purchased."

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which accounts for about 40 percent of the world's needs, next meets Feb. 1 in Vienna, Austria, to consider increasing output.

Returning to a recurring theme of his trip, Bush stepped up warnings to Iran not to meddle with U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf after a Jan. 6 encounter that was deemed threatening by American officials. The president said there would be "serious consequences" for Iran if a U.S. vessel was attacked, whether or not it were ordered by the government in Tehran or was the result of a rash decision by an Iranian boat captain.

"It's not going to matter to me one way or the other if they hit our ships, and the Iranian government has got to understand that," Bush said.

Bush said he tried to clear up confusion in the region created by a new U.S. intelligence finding that Iran had stopped a secret nuclear weapons program in 2003 — contradicting White House claims that Tehran was still pursuing such arms. He said he told Sunni Arab leaders worried about Shiite Iran's ambitions for regional power that "all options are on the table" for dealing with the continuing threat from Tehran but that "I'd like to solve this diplomatically."

The Saudi foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, called Iran "a neighborly, important country in the region." "Under any circumstance, escalation in the region is in nobody's interest," he said.

Rice slipped away from Bush's entourage in the Saudi capital at 6:40 a.m. Tuesday for an unannounced trip to Iraq. Bush said he had been encouraged by signs of legislative progress in Baghdad and decided about 10 days ago that he would send her — but not go himself, as some speculated — because she could "push the momentum by her very presence."

In Baghdad, Rice congratulated Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki on the political progress that has moved along "quite remarkably," citing passage of U.S.-sought legislation reinstating former Saddam Hussein loyalists to government jobs.

She flew back to Saudi Arabia in time for dinner with Bush and the king at the ranch and then hurried to Riyadh for a news conference with Saud.

"I don't know what more outreach we can give the Israelis," Saud said, referring to an Arab peace plan and the sentiment in the region that Israel hasn't been meeting its obligations under an internationally sponsored roadmap, and that the U.S. is too lenient on that point. He said Israel's continued Jewish settlement activity in the Palestinian territories "cast doubt on the seriousness of the negotiations."

Bush acknowledged widespread skepticism about him in the Middle East. "Of course. I mean, my image: `Bush wants to fight Muslims,'" he said in an ABC News "Nightline" interview. "I'm sure people view me as a war monger and I view myself as a peacemaker. They view me as so pro-Israeli I can't be open-minded about Palestinian peace. ... You just have to fight through the stereotypes by actions."

Bush said that throughout his trip, he encountered "genuine concern about protectionism" in the United States, including questions about whether foreign capital was welcome and what message U.S. visa restrictions send. "That troubles me because that's not the way our country is," he said.</div>

Source: Yahoo News
 
The price of gas doesn't seem to be tied that directly to the price per barrel of oil. If it were, we'd be paying $6 or more per gallon. It was $40/barrel last year sometime, I'm pretty sure. It's certainly not 2.5x the price at the pump (it's ~$100/barrel now).

We simply don't have the refineries to make more gasoline, or enough to bring the price down (supply/demand curve). We haven't built a new one in decades...
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ Jan 16 2008, 12:16 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>The price of gas doesn't seem to be tied that directly to the price per barrel of oil. If it were, we'd be paying $6 or more per gallon. It was $40/barrel last year sometime, I'm pretty sure. It's certainly not 2.5x the price at the pump (it's ~$100/barrel now).

We simply don't have the refineries to make more gasoline, or enough to bring the price down (supply/demand curve). We haven't built a new one in decades...</div>

I read the price hasn't jumped because we're still using cheap reserves we purchased prior to the spike in the price per barrel. One of the Ivy League (I think Princeton) colleges did a study on what the price has to be before people change their driving habits. The magic number was $4.72 per gallon.

Gas reaching at least $4.00 by summer is a safe bet.

I heard today California might vote to have a new gasoline tax that would tax drivers .40 cents per gallon more to force people to buy more gas efficient vehicles.
 
That law would never pass in California, at least...I hope it wouldn't. What about the people driving gas efficient cars? That's a lose/lose for everybody.

If Gas goes to $4 a gallon, I'll kill somebody. That's ****ing ridiculous.
 
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/22/business...amp;oref=slogin

Record Failures at Oil Refineries Raise Gas Prices

By JAD MOUAWAD
Published: July 22, 2007

Oil refineries across the country have been plagued by a record number of fires, power failures, leaks, spills and breakdowns this year, causing dozens of them to shut down temporarily or trim production. The disruptions are helping to drive gasoline prices to highs not seen since last summer’s records.

These mechanical breakdowns, which one analyst likened to an “invisible hurricane,” have created a bottleneck in domestic energy supplies, helping to push up gasoline prices 50 cents this year to well above $3 a gallon. A third of the country’s 150 refineries have reported disruptions to their operations since the beginning of the year, a record according to analysts.

There have been blazes at refineries in Louisiana, Texas, Indiana and California, some of them caused by lightning strikes. Plants have suffered power losses that disrupted operations; a midsize refinery in Kansas was flooded by torrential rains last month.

American refiners are running roughly 5 percent below their normal levels at this time of the year.

“You have a system that is taxed to the limit,” said Adam Robinson, an energy research analyst at Lehman Brothers. “This is what happens when spare capacity is eroded.”

After Hurricanes Katrina and Rita disrupted the nation’s energy lifeline two years ago, oil companies delayed maintenance on many of their plants to make up for lost supplies and take advantage of the high prices. But, analysts say, they are now paying a price for deferring repairs.

As a whole, refining disruptions have been considerably higher than in previous years: they averaged 1.5 million barrels a day in the first quarter, compared with 700,000 to 900,000 barrels a day from 2001 to 2005. In the days after the hurricanes, refiners were forced to briefly halt as many as five million barrels of production.

In 2006, when refiners were still reeling from the impact of the hurricanes, disruptions in the first quarter averaged 1.35 million barrels a day.

Many factors have led to the rise in gas prices, including disruptions in oil supplies from places like Nigeria and Norway. But analysts say the refining bottleneck in North America has been one of the main drivers of higher energy prices this year.

The refining crunch has pushed wholesale gasoline prices up 35 percent this year and has contributed to a 23 percent gain for crude oil prices. Oil futures in New York closed at $75.57 a barrel on Friday.

Some critics of the industry have theorized on Internet blogs that the squeeze on gasoline and other refined products points to a deliberate effort among oil companies to bolster profits by keeping supplies tight. But experts point out that the companies have little incentive right now to hold back on fuel supplies.

“Every refinery would like to run as much crude as possible but they simply can’t,” said David Greely, senior energy economist at Goldman Sachs, who in a recent report compared the drop in domestic refining with an “invisible hurricane.” “These are more complex systems. There are more chances for things to go wrong. And when things go wrong, they tend to back up the system.”

Meanwhile, refiners have been scrambling to meet a raft of environmental regulations, phase out toxic additives, add ethanol to the fuel mix and introduce new ultralow sulfur standards for gasoline and diesel. Industry insiders attribute much of the fragility of refining operations to the difficulty of making these cleaner fuels.

Refiners spent $9 billion from 2002 to 2006 to make low sulfur diesel. But producing these cleaner fuels means processing crude oil more intensely through the refining process, at higher pressures and temperatures. This, in turn, leads to more chances for glitches or breakdowns, refiners say.

“It’s a marvel we can continue to run refineries the way we do these days given the many requirements and specification changes we have,” said Charles T. Drevna, executive vice president of the refining industry’s main trade group, the National Petrochemical and Refiners Association. “There comes a time when the piper has got to be paid.”

This year’s problems have raised alarms about the safety of refining operations, especially after a deadly accident at a BP refinery in Texas two years ago that killed 15 workers. The federal Chemical Safety Board issued a highly critical report blaming a broken safety culture at BP. But the board’s chairwoman, Carolyn W. Merritt, who has spoken out about safety problems at refineries, said there was a pattern in many other refinery incidents that the board had investigated.

“There is a lack of investments in modern equipment,” Ms. Merritt said. “The overwhelming preponderance is that if you have inadequate engineering and equipment, poor process safety management, and poor staffing, you’re set up for a catastrophe.”

Ms. Merritt, who was appointed by President Bush and will retire after her five-year term ends in August, also said the Occupational Safety and Health Administration does not conduct enough inspections. “There is no enforcement,” she said.

OSHA defended its record and said it had inspected almost 500 refineries from 1994 to 2004. The agency also said it would inspect all refineries under its jurisdiction within the next two years. “OSHA inspections of refineries have proven to be effective,” the agency said.

Meanwhile, demand has been rising relentlessly, providing little respite to the nation’s aging energy infrastructure. Even as consumers complain loudly about high prices, they show no signs of scaling back. Gasoline consumption reached 9.66 million barrels a day in the first week of July, the second-highest level on record.

“The cushion that used to be available five to seven years ago for these unplanned perturbations is no longer there,” said Jeet Bindra, Chevron’s president of global refining. “When a refinery has a hiccup, there are consequences on supplies.”

Part of the problem, analysts and refiners said, stems from the hurricanes two years ago. In Louisiana and Mississippi, many refineries were flooded, and about a quarter of the nation’s refining capacity was shut for weeks.

“Since refining has become such a wonderful business, refiners have delayed maintenance,” Mr. Robinson said. “But when they do go down, they stay down for longer and they discover all sorts of problems.”

In late March, for example, a fire at a large compressor at a BP refinery in Whiting, Ind., caused a hydrogen-treating unit that removes sulfur from some oil products to shut. That meant BP had to turn off a crude oil unit for early maintenance. Two weeks later, a brief power disruption damaged another distillation tower. And in July, a third crude oil tower was shut briefly so operators could fix a small leak. Since the first incident, the 405,000 barrels-a-day refinery has been running at about half its capacity.

Not all refining disruptions are the result of similar incidents. Refineries typically schedule yearly maintenance that sometimes requires them to halt production entirely. But even these long-scheduled shutdowns can now take longer to complete.

No refineries have been built in the United States in over three decades, because refiners say they are too costly. Instead, they have been expanding their existing refineries.

All this is happening as the industry goes through another golden age. After 20 years in the doldrums, the refining business has never been so good for oil companies. Refining margins — the difference between the price of crude oil and the value of refined gasoline made from it — have shot up as much as $25 a barrel for some types of crude oil, compared with about $5 a barrel just a few years ago.

But with a third summer of high gasoline prices, lawmakers are debating legislation they claim would punish oil companies for exploiting the tight supply situation and engaging in “price gouging.” At the same time, they are pressing refiners to produce more fuel.

“Refiners want to keep running in today’s economic environment,” said Mr. Drevna of the refiners association. “But when they shut down they are accused of gouging the system. When they don’t, they are criticized for overrunning their facilities.”
 
Selected quotes from the above article:

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>“You have a system that is taxed to the limit,” said Adam Robinson, an energy research analyst at Lehman Brothers. “This is what happens when spare capacity is eroded.”</div>

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>Many factors have led to the rise in gas prices, including disruptions in oil supplies from places like Nigeria and Norway. But analysts say the refining bottleneck in North America has been one of the main drivers of higher energy prices this year.

The refining crunch has pushed wholesale gasoline prices up 35 percent this year and has contributed to a 23 percent gain for crude oil prices. Oil futures in New York closed at $75.57 a barrel on Friday.</div>

(Note the price has jumped 33% for oil/barrel, but the price at the pump hasn't).

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>Some critics of the industry have theorized on Internet blogs that the squeeze on gasoline and other refined products points to a deliberate effort among oil companies to bolster profits by keeping supplies tight. But experts point out that the companies have little incentive right now to hold back on fuel supplies.</div>

Everything I've seen is that the refineries have been running as close to 100% capacity as they can, given the need for repairs, system failures, hurricanes (Katrina) and regulations...

And this addresses the theory that we're using up some cushion of cheaper oil reserves before the gas prices skyrocket to match crude oil:

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>“The cushion that used to be available five to seven years ago for these unplanned perturbations is no longer there,” said Jeet Bindra, Chevron’s president of global refining. “When a refinery has a hiccup, there are consequences on supplies.”</div>
 

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