Can Oden still be a once-in-a-generation ceneter?

[Deebag]

Sure, he's improved. He's most likely no longer a complete bust. But now the question remains. Is he just going to be a serviceable offensive force with a dominating defensive presence? Or can he still be that guy everyone thought he was coming out of high school? I know he's not ever going to put up Bill Russell/Olajuwon stats anytime soon. But do you still think he has what it takes to at least challenge Dwight as the top center in the league?

I'm gonna take a guess at his career highs @ 22 / 14 / 4 assists / 3 blks

If Aldridge ever faces a major injury for an extended period of time, that point total could raise as well.

So color me optimistic.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Consider yourself so colored.

First of all Oden was never a complete bust ... his PER is way to high to be a bust, but to answer your question, he isn't a once in a generation center either, best case scenario is probably Dwight Howard-lite, something in the neighborhood of 18 points, 12 boards and maybe 2.5-3 blocks in his prime.

FWIW, a 15pts/11 boards/2.5 blocks and 20+ PER Oden is probably plenty for this team to seriously contend.

 

[Minstrel]

but to answer your question, he isn't a once in a generation center either, best case scenario is probably Dwight Howard-lite

I think it's far too early to say that. Playing his rookie season while clearly limited by his recovery, he put up a PER in shouting distance of All-Star caliber. His minutes played weren't good, but for reasons that seem to be correctable.

I consider his median expectation to be similar to Dwight Howard: he doesn't develop his offensive game that much, but scores purely by dint of size and athleticism, and he adds dominating rebounding (which he already showed his rookie season) and dominating defense.

I think his best case scenario is Dwight Howard with a very effective post-up game. Roughly, Tim Duncan level value.

 

[Eastoff]

I don't think Oden stands a chance at being a senator.

 

[RoyIsClutch07]

Sure, he's improved. He's most likely no longer a complete bust. But now the question remains. Is he just going to be a serviceable offensive force with a dominating defensive presence? Or can he still be that guy everyone thought he was coming out of high school? I know he's not ever going to put up Bill Russell/Olajuwon stats anytime soon. But do you still think he has what it takes to at least challenge Dwight as the top center in the league?

I'm gonna take a guess at his career highs @ 22 / 14 / 4 assists / 3 blks

If Aldridge ever faces a major injury for an extended period of time, that point total could raise as well.

So color me optimistic.

I think so. Brian Grant made a great point tonight on courtside. People were too quick to jump off his ship last year. He has it in himself just by the few plays I have seen to be something special. I believe in him big time.

But I think he is going to do most of his damage defensively. If he averages a career high of 22 points per game, that is a lot more than I would ever anticipate him averaging. Mainly because on this team, he doesn't need to score. Unless Roy or Aldridge goes down with injury or the two of them are disqualified due to foul trouble. There are so many scorers on this team. What the team needs is for him to be a dominant force defensively. If he does that than, I think he can and will make a name for himself as a once in a generation center. The only difference he will be doing it with his defense rather an offense. Kind of like Russell. What will really determine this though is championships.

 

[PapaG]

I think it's far too early to say that. Playing his rookie season while clearly limited by his recovery, he put up a PER in shouting distance of All-Star caliber. His minutes played weren't good, but for reasons that seem to be correctable.

I consider his median expectation to be similar to Dwight Howard: he doesn't develop his offensive game that much, but scores purely by dint of size and athleticism, and he adds dominating rebounding (which he already showed his rookie season) and dominating defense.

I think his best case scenario is Dwight Howard with a very effective post-up game. Roughly, Tim Duncan level value.

Offensively, I just don't see it. Duncan is one of the best face-up posts in NBA history. I think you're undervaluing Duncan and setting too high of an expectation for Oden. That said, we can dream, right?

 

[RoyIsClutch07]

Offensively, I just don't see it. Duncan is one of the best face-up posts in NBA history. I think you're undervaluing Duncan and setting too high of an expectation for Oden. That said, we can dream, right?

I think he will be better on the defensive end than Howard.

 

[mook]

Well, as skilled as Duncan was (and still is), on his very best day he was never as strong as Oden is right now. Minstrel didn't say he'd have the same skills as Duncan, just that it's possible he could be that caliber of talent.

And really is that so far off?

Personally, I think at the low end he's an Alonzo Mourning-type center. Good offensively, fantastic defensively. On the high end? Yeah, I can see Duncan.

Somebody has to be the next Shaq, Hakeem, Duncan, Garnett or Robinson. Right now it's Dwight and a bunch of quality-but-not-dominant big men like Pau and Bosh and (probably pretty soon if not already) Aldridge.

Is there a better candidate right now in the league to join that really elite status besides Howard? I can't think of one.

I'm not saying he WILL get there. Just that it's really exceptional to find somebody with the tools to even consider getting there, and I think Oden might have those tools.

 

[RoyIsClutch07]

Well, as skilled as Duncan was (and still is), on his very best day he was never as strong as Oden is right now. Minstrel didn't say he'd have the same skills as Duncan, just that it's possible he could be that caliber of talent.

And really is that so far off?

Personally, I think at the low end he's an Alonzo Mourning-type center. Good offensively, fantastic defensively. On the high end? Yeah, I can see Duncan.

Somebody has to be the next Shaq, Hakeem, Duncan, Garnett or Robinson. Right now it's Dwight and a bunch of quality-but-not-dominant big men like Pau and Bosh and (probably pretty soon if not already) Aldridge.

Is there a better candidate right now in the league to join that really elite status besides Howard? I can't think of one.

I'm not saying he WILL get there. Just that it's really exceptional to find somebody with the tools to even consider getting there, and I think Oden might have those tools.

The Alonzo comparison is a good one. The good news is Greg is more athletic than Alonzo. Greg is more athletic than what Patrick Ewing was.

 

[PapaG]

Well, as skilled as Duncan was (and still is), on his very best day he was never as strong as Oden is right now. Minstrel didn't say he'd have the same skills as Duncan, just that it's possible he could be that caliber of talent.

And really is that so far off?

Personally, I think at the low end he's an Alonzo Mourning-type center. Good offensively, fantastic defensively. On the high end? Yeah, I can see Duncan.

Somebody has to be the next Shaq, Hakeem, Duncan, Garnett or Robinson. Right now it's Dwight and a bunch of quality-but-not-dominant big men like Pau and Bosh and (probably pretty soon if not already) Aldridge.

Is there a better candidate right now in the league to join that really elite status besides Howard? I can't think of one.

I'm not saying he WILL get there. Just that it's really exceptional to find somebody with the tools to even consider getting there, and I think Oden might have those tools.

I think that comparing Oden to Tim Duncan, even in a "best-case" scenario, is a bit ambitious at this point and probably isn't fair to Greg.

 

[MIXUM]

CAN ODEN MAKE IT THROUGH A SEASON WITH GOOD PLAY FOR BEFORE WE MENTION "ALL TIME CENTERS"

ARE U KIDDING ME????

 

[Natebishop3]

I still think the potential to be an all-time great is there. He's so young. It's like people think he's 25 or something.

 

[Deebag]

Don't forget that Oden also has a great ability to learn on the go. He might not have a huge offensive arsenal at the moment, but remember that he learned to play with his left hand in college. And recently he's acquired a solid jumpshot and improved his free throw shooting within the summer.

Sure he seemed really robotic and awkward in his first playing season, but based on merely a half-season we've seen him play, we can not say for sure that he won't be able to pick up things with ease in time. It takes time and experience for centers to adjust to the NBA. Something Oden hasn't had much of so far in his young career due to fouls and injuries. Fouls is something that will magically go away, trust me. And I'd rather not worry about injuries even if they are a real factor.

Honestly, I see nothing about Howard that Oden can't do better or has definite potential to do better.

Edit - lol, 'scuse the typo in the title.

 

[Minstrel]

Well, as skilled as Duncan was (and still is), on his very best day he was never as strong as Oden is right now. Minstrel didn't say he'd have the same skills as Duncan, just that it's possible he could be that caliber of talent.

That's right, I was careful in my wording...I wasn't saying Oden would play like Duncan, but that (in his best case scenario) he would approximate Duncan's overall value, combining offense, defense and rebounding.

I don't think (to answer PapaG's explicit response to mook and implicit response to me) that that's an unfair or unreasonable top-end comparison. Oden was nearly universally considered by scouts to be one of the best center prospects ever. I haven't seen any evidence, yet, that they were wrong. His rookie season wasn't disappointing to me, in context (being limited athletically as he recovered from surgery, having been over a year away from competitive basketball, not having had a chance to train properly in the off-season).

I would never say any prospect's expected level is a top-tier Hall of Famer like Duncan. But his best case? Sure. Oden has freakish athleticism for his huge frame, he used it effectively in college and showed glimpses of it in his rookie season despite the aforementioned limitations. He may never develop his offensive game further, but I think there's plenty of reason to believe he can improve his footwork and post moves.

 

[DaRizzle]

no.

 

[Natebishop3]

not until he's a laker.

Fixed.

 

[DaRizzle]

still no

 

[Natebishop3]

still no

Do you think Andrew is a once-in-a-generation center?

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Do you think Andrew is a once-in-a-generation center?

"How often will Bynum play a full season?"

"Once a generation."

 

[Nikolokolus]

Do you think Andrew is a once-in-a-generation center?

No.

 

[MrJayremmie]

I think Oden could very well end up being similar to Dwight Howard of this past year.

As a once in a generation center? Doubtful, but as Minstrel said, to early to tell.

 

[BlazersBlood]

....but scores purely by dint of size and athleticism...

Dint of size? Dang! Minstrel droppin some knowledge! I had to google that.

I think he can achieve Dwight Howard's level of offensive prowess...easily. If he can develop a consistent face up shot and actually get that ugly hook to develop some touch, he could put up 20/12 with no problem.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Same Thread, Different Day....

Oden WILL be a once-in-a-generation REBOUNDER. Overall center? He won't put up gaudy offensive numbers like some other centers have so people will be disappointed in him, which of course is stupid.

 

[STOMP]

Same Thread, Different Day....

Oden WILL be a once-in-a-generation REBOUNDER. Overall center? He won't put up gaudy offensive numbers like some other centers have so people will be disappointed in him, which of course is stupid.

another factor is any center's offensive numbers would take a hit if they were surrounded by capable scorers like Greg is... less opportunities = less numbers for every player.

To the OP... I don't see why not. If he's really got his legs/agility back then he's one of the most impressive physical specimens in the league.

STOMP

 

[magnifier661]

Sure, he's improved. He's most likely no longer a complete bust. But now the question remains. Is he just going to be a serviceable offensive force with a dominating defensive presence? Or can he still be that guy everyone thought he was coming out of high school? I know he's not ever going to put up Bill Russell/Olajuwon stats anytime soon. But do you still think he has what it takes to at least challenge Dwight as the top center in the league?

I'm gonna take a guess at his career highs @ 22 / 14 / 4 assists / 3 blks

If Aldridge ever faces a major injury for an extended period of time, that point total could raise as well.

So color me optimistic.

All Oden needs to be is an offensive threat. Some games able to score 30 points if they try to play him "straight up". All we need is for other teams knowingly having to pre for Oden. Having him able to score, but his main focus is on the defensive end and offensive put backs.

If other teams play us straight up, then have Oden punish them down low. But I would be considering him a success if he averages 15-12-3 (blocks) a game.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I know he's not ever going to put up Bill Russell/Olajuwon stats anytime soon.

I think Oden will be a better offensive player than Russell. Russell's career high scoring average was 18.9 PPG and he averaged 15.1 PPG for his career. I think Oden has the potential to top both of those, or at least come close. The real difference will be in FG%. Russell had a career FG% of 0.440, with a high of 0.467. Oden as a rookie, shot 0.564 from the field.

Like Russell, Oden will be the center on a team full of other great players. So, he will likely never be the #1 scoring option on offense. Like Russell, his main contributions will be on defense and rebounding the ball. Of course, he won't average as many RPG as Russell did. No one averages 22 - 24 RG these days. The pace is slower and the shooting percentages much higher. So, that means there are a lot fewer missed shots to rebound. It's too bad TRB% is not available for the time when Russell played. That would have been a great way to compare rebounding between these two players whose careers are separated by 50 years. Russell led the league in RPG five times and was top 3 in RPG 13 times. If Oden can come close to matching that, we'll call the rebounding a draw. If not, advantage Russell.

In terms of defense, I think Oden will be a great defender, but Russell is the greatest of all time. He is the all-time career leader in defensive win shares and led the league in this category 11 times (including 10 straight seasons).

And, then there's the rings. Russell has 11, and five finals MVPs. As much as I'd love to see it, I don't think Oden (or anyone) will come close to matching that.

Oden won't be Bill Russell. He will be Greg Oden. He will play a similar role. I think his offense will be a little better than Russell's (based on higher shooting percentages). His rebounding will be similar (after accounting for differences in pace and FG%), perhaps not quite as good as Russell's. Oden will be a great defender for his generation, but not an all-time great (or THE all-time great), like Russell. I do think Oden will be a vital part of multiple championships, but not nearly as many as Russell (keep in mind there were only 8 or 9 other teams in the league when Russell played, not 29). If Oden ends up being a modern day, poor man's Bill Russell, I will be totally happy. While I think low post scoring is very important, but when it comes to big men, I value rebounding and defense even more. Oden will never lead the league in scoring, probably never crack the top 10, maybe not even lead his own team in scoring, but his contributions on defense and rebounding will justify taking him first over all in the 2007 NBA draft.

BNM

 

[PapaG]

That's right, I was careful in my wording...I wasn't saying Oden would play like Duncan, but that (in his best case scenario) he would approximate Duncan's overall value, combining offense, defense and rebounding.
I don't think (to answer PapaG's explicit response to mook and implicit response to me) that that's an unfair or unreasonable top-end comparison. Oden was nearly universally considered by scouts to be one of the best center prospects ever. I haven't seen any evidence, yet, that they were wrong. His rookie season wasn't disappointing to me, in context (being limited athletically as he recovered from surgery, having been over a year away from competitive basketball, not having had a chance to train properly in the off-season).

I would never say any prospect's expected level is a top-tier Hall of Famer like Duncan. But his best case? Sure. Oden has freakish athleticism for his huge frame, he used it effectively in college and showed glimpses of it in his rookie season despite the aforementioned limitations. He may never develop his offensive game further, but I think there's plenty of reason to believe he can improve his footwork and post moves.

Duncan is a two-time NBA MVP and 3-time Finals MVP. That's a pretty high ceiling for any player, let alone one who has had difficulties finding his groove. Duncan was the primary offensive threat and the offense ran through him in his best years. That's some pretty incredible value. I hope Oden gets there, but I think using Tim Duncan as a comparison is a reach at this point.

 

[magnifier661]

Duncan is a two-time NBA MVP and 3-time Finals MVP. That's a pretty high ceiling for any player, let alone one who has had difficulties finding his groove. Duncan was the primary offensive threat and the offense ran through him in his best years. That's some pretty incredible value. I hope Oden gets there, but I think using Tim Duncan as a comparison is a reach at this point.

Keep in mind that Oden came back from micro-fracture knee surgery. The NBA game is a much faster pace than the college level, plus that type of injury take two years to fully recover from. I think this will be a good year to realistically rate Oden.

 

[PapaG]

Keep in mind that Oden came back from micro-fracture knee surgery. The NBA game is a much faster pace than the college level, plus that type of injury take two years to fully recover from. I think this will be a good year to realistically rate Oden.

I'm well aware of how Oden has been impacted by his microfracture surgery. That said, I still find comparing his potential value to Tim Duncan, who is arguably the best PF in history, is a little unrealistic based on what we've seen of Oden at this point.

 

[magnifier661]

I'm well aware of how Oden has been impacted by his microfracture surgery. That said, I still find comparing his potential value to Tim Duncan, who is arguably the best PF in history, is a little unrealistic based on what we've seen of Oden at this point.

Sounds good. I just think some of the naysayers aren't taking into consideration on his injury.