Chris Haynes: Chad in panic mode (Re: Batum)

[Draco]

Nic is also 3 years younger. Whether anyone wants to or not the team that signs him is going to have to pay for that potential.

If you really want to keep Batum here in the long term it may be better to wait a few months until he's a RFA, he will be eligible for a 5 year contract from the Blazers in the summer but right now is only eligible for 4 additional years on an extension.

 

[Boise Blazer]

I like a 5 years deal but I also worry that if he goes RFA then some team that isnt smart like some want us to be and will overbid for him and we will need pressured to match then instead of overpaying him a little now we will be overpaying him a lot later. Maybe, maybe not. I dont know but I guess its a pick your poison situation.

 

[Draco]

I agree that makes sense if you were looking at the big and you were doing that for all of the rotational players - but you're not. What other up and coming players do we have that show the potential Batum may have? You make a valid point about the mindset but you describe the worst case scenario if we did that for every player.

I'm a little burned out on the "potential" thing. How many times did we hear that about Travis Outlaw? Martell Webster? Sergio Rodriguez? Rudy Fernandez? Sure I'd rather have an identical player who is younger. But I'm not willing to drastically overpay an inferior player just because he is younger. Young players who are stud difference makers show glimpses as a rookie, it didn't take Lebron or Durant years to become studs, they were that way right out of the gate. LaMarcus was a solid #2 option in his second season. Sure other young guys could improve, but after a few years if it hasn't happened you're hoping for a great role player not a franchise building block.

Crawford, Wallace, Felton, and Camby will all be free agents, but unlike Batum they will all be unrestricted. We are going to want a new PG and C. I think it's much more likely we need an extra $2million to bring in a starter at one of those positions then it would be to overpay Batum now when we have rights to match any offer he receives anyways.

I like a 5 years deal but I also worry that if he goes RFA then some team that isnt smart like some want us to be and will overbid for him and we will need pressured to match then instead of overpaying him a little now we will be overpaying him a lot later. Maybe, maybe not. I dont know but I guess its a pick your poison situation.

Just because something bad could possibly happen doesn't mean we should do a less bad decision now. Also, if Batum gets a huge RFA offer that likely means he is playing well this season and we have a great player to build around, so that isn't such a horrible scenario.

What if we give Batum a big extension now and he plays like he has his entire career for the rest of the season? Maybe he wouldn't get more then the $5million MLE? Then we would've overpaid him and lost the flexability to add a free agent.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Darius was younger then Batum is now and accomplished a hell of a lot more in the NBA.

Define "accomplished". Miles had accomplished alienating two franchises and pissing off two coaches before he was exiled to Portland. Until that first half season in Portand, in a contract year playing for an owner with deep pockets, he'd never put up a PER => 15.0 (average NBA player). Sure, he played big minutes on some crappy teams, but his performance actually declined when he was traded from the Clippers to the Cavs. He never played on a team good enough to make the play-offs.

Batum has been, until this season, primarily a starter on a team that has made the play-offs every year he's been here and has averaged 51 wins. He doesn't cause problems with his coaches or teamates. You're right. He's no Darius Miles.

It's critical we don't overpay borderline starters if we want to have any chance of becoming a legit contender.

Gerald Wallace and Nicolas Batum are not borderline starters. They are both above average starters who also happen to play excellent defense.

Should we resign both of them? It depends on how much it would cost and what other options are available. I'd be reluctant to give Wallace big dollar, long term contract give his age, injury history and style of play. Batum is still young and improving. I'd be much more willing to roll the dice on him and lock him up long term. What looks to be overpaying now could look like a real bargain in two or three years.

BNM

 

[blue32]

I'm a little burned out on the "potential" thing. How many times did we hear that about Travis Outlaw? Martell Webster? Sergio Rodriguez? Rudy Fernandez? Sure I'd rather have an identical player who is younger. But I'm not willing to drastically overpay an inferior player just because he is younger. Young players who are stud difference makers show glimpses as a rookie, it didn't take Lebron or Durant years to become studs, they were that way right out of the gate. LaMarcus was a solid #2 option in his second season. Sure other young guys could improve, but after a few years if it hasn't happened you're hoping for a great role player not a franchise building block.

Crawford, Wallace, Felton, and Camby will all be free agents, but unlike Batum they will all be unrestricted. We are going to want a new PG and C. I think it's much more likely we need an extra $2million to bring in a starter at one of those positions then it would be to overpay Batum now when we have rights to match any offer he receives anyways.




Just because something bad could possibly happen doesn't mean we should do a less bad decision now. Also, if Batum gets a huge RFA offer that likely means he is playing well this season and we have a great player to build around, so that isn't such a horrible scenario.

What if we give Batum a big extension now and he plays like he has his entire career for the rest of the season? Maybe he wouldn't get more then the $5million MLE? Then we would've overpaid him and lost the flexability to add a free agent.

Amen. I am tired of hearing the word "potential" as well. The entire McMillian era has been about "potential", w/only 2 real players actually displaying anything worth "Must have". Everyone else is just garbage in comparison. Now don't get me wrong, Batum is good, but not worth "panic-mode, must buy now".

 

[jlprk]

Amen. I am tired of hearing the word "potential" as well. The entire McMillian era has been about "potential"

Bingo. McMillan is unable to bring out the potential that we pay for but never get. McMillan costs this team millions and millions of unrealized dollars.

 

[PapaG]

Afflalo had a really great year last year which was well timed. Is Nic better or worse? I don't know. I guess I'd say Nic's ceiling could be higher, but to date his production has been lower.

Afflalo had a PER of 13.6 last year and a DRTG of 111, which is horrible for a supposed "stopper".

Denver completely overpaid for him, and that could actually harm the Blazers, because Nic's agent can just point to that contract as a measuring stick.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Afflalo had a PER of 13.6 last year and a DRTG of 111, which is horrible for a supposed "stopper".

Denver completely overpaid for him, and that could actually harm the Blazers, because Nic's agent can just point to that contract as a measuring stick.

Interesting. I hadn't looked at his stats, but I just remember the few times I watched him that he looked impressive and I know he was lights out from deep ... (you did forget to mention that his ORTG was 123 and he was almost a 50-40-90 guy however).

 

[MickZagger]

Is there anywhere I can find a list of all the 50-40-90 guys?

 

[Nikolokolus]

Is there anywhere I can find a list of all the 50-40-90 guys?

use basketball-reference.com and the player index finder

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/

 

[Sinobas]

He's not asking for the max but he is worth more than the MLE.

They have to get this done.

Wallace will be 30 and his type don't age gracefully.

To me, Wallace looks like he's already teetering on the edge of basketball geezer-hood. He still shows sparks of his old self at times, but the rest he just looks old, tired....

 

[PapaG]

Interesting. I hadn't looked at his stats, but I just remember the few times I watched him that he looked impressive and I know he was lights out from deep ... (you did forget to mention that his ORTG was 123 and he was almost a 50-40-90 guy however).

His offensive efficiency is largely reflected in his PER, though. I thought the same as you, probably because it seemed like he killed the Blazers every game I watched last year. Regardless, that contract isn't going to help lower Batum's value around the NBA.

 

[Nikolokolus]

His offensive efficiency is largely reflected in his PER, though. I thought the same as you, probably because it seemed like he killed the Blazers every game I watched last year. Regardless, that contract isn't going to help lower Batum's value around the NBA.

Actually his PER gets pulled down because he's such a low usage guy. ORTG and DRTG have some individual weight, but they are heavily autocorrelated with teammates and lineups.

And you're right, his contract pushes Batum's asking price up.

 

[PapaG]

Actually his PER gets pulled down because he's such a low usage guy. ORTG and DRTG have some individual weight, but they are heavily autocorrelated with teammates and lineups.

And you're right, his contract pushes Batum's asking price up.

Finally, a fellow genuis!

 

[Nikolokolus]

Finally, a fellow genuis!

Thank god I missed that.

 

[magnifier661]

Okay I'll bite... What the fuck are you guys talking about. I've never been good with those per thingies. 50-90-50?

 

[Nikolokolus]

Okay I'll bite... What the fuck are you guys talking about. I've never been good with those per thingies. 50-90-50?

PER is player efficiency rating. In short, it tries to measure if players are effective on a per possession basis by aggregating all of the positiv things they do minus all of the negative and it's independent of minutes played ie a 36 minutes per night guy can have the same PER as a 10 mintues per night guy (or lower or higher as the case may be.)

The 50-40-90 stat refers to 50% on FGAs, 40% on 3s and 90% from the free throw line.

 

[magnifier661]

PER is player efficiency rating. In short, it tries to measure if players are effective on a per possession basis by aggregating all of the positiv things they do minus all of the negative and it's independent of minutes played ie a 36 minutes per night guy can have the same PER as a 10 mintues per night guy (or lower or higher as the case may be.)

The 50-40-90 stat refers to 50% on FGAs, 40% on 3s and 90% from the free throw line.

Thanks a ton. I look at per and just know the higher number the better, but when I saw that 50-40-90 thingy I was totally confused.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

I think everyone agrees that the Blazers shouldn't overpay for a player, that is just stating the obvious. The million dollar question is how much is overpaying?

This thread makes me think when Roy and Aldridge were extended. At the time the consensus (with a few dissents) was Roy got paid fairly and Marshmellow Aldrdige was overpaid.

If Nic bust out on the NBA scene, he is a bargin, If he fizzles out into a bench role player, he is overpaid. I think he is worth the risk.

 

[Blazinaway]

To me, Wallace looks like he's already teetering on the edge of basketball geezer-hood. He still shows sparks of his old self at times, but the rest he just looks old, tired....

I agree, Gerald has beem very inconsistent for a very who should no be this up and down, I am not at all impressed with his play. I say we go with Nic and try to trade Gerald for what we can get

 

[BBert]

To me, Wallace looks like he's already teetering on the edge of basketball geezer-hood. He still shows sparks of his old self at times, but the rest he just looks old, tired....

This. I really wanted Gerald Wallace on the Blazers -- 5 years ago. I'd pay Nico $8 mil per and be happy, up to $9 mil if I had to. It will be interesting to see if the new CBA and financial realities results in slightly reduced contracts around the league.

 

[HailBlazers]

The title of this thread should be : Chris Haynes in panic mode

 

[Kamper]

Look at Scottie Pippen's career numbers, not all that impressive at all, then look at Batum's, unfortuanately the numbers are close. Perhaps Pippen wasn't all that he was made out to be. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottie_Pippen#Career_statistics ... Surprisingly low numbers across the board. Hell, Westbrook is pulling much higher numbers playing second fiddle to Durant. Maybe we've all been deceived.

Perhaps he's been Pippen all along and we've been blindsided by his "Pippenesque" abilites, only to be decieved that he is performing at those numbers.

 

[Kamper]

Given that he would be given the Pippen number of minutes and the fact that he seems to perform better as a starter.