Overall, I think the voters got it pretty much right this year. I'd predicted over a month ago that Curry would win and it would't be close. He was the best player on a team that won 67 games (tied for 6th most regular season wins in NBA history). I'm also fine with Harden being second and LeBron being 3rd. I would have definitely put Anthony Davis (and maybe Chris Paul) ahead of Westbrook. After all, Davis led his team to the playoffs and Westbrook didn't.
Of all the individual awards, I think team success is critical to winning MVP. I don't care how great your individual stats are, if you're not helping your team win, you're not as valuable as someone who is. The Warriors winning 67 games, this season, in an insanely tough Western Conference is VERY impressive. 67 wins is pretty special in any year, but this year, in the Western Conference, I'm amazed they were able to win that many - and Steph Curry was definitely the best player on the best team.
And, while I'm not a big fan of his style of play, I agree with Harden placing second. The Rockets had a ton of injuries and had to work new players into their line up, but through it all, they just kept on winning and captured the second seed in the incredibly competitive West. So, the best player on the second best team came in second in MVP voting. Makes sense to me.
I did find it interesting that no one on the 60-win Hawks got a single vote. First, good for ATL for winning 60, but 60 wins in the East, where 38 wins was enough to make the playoffs, isn't as impressive as winning 56 in the West. And, ATL really doesn't have a single player that makes them great. They have a very balanced starting 5, without a superstar at any position. Their leading scorer only averaged 16.7ppg, which isn't enough for serious MVP consideration - at least not in the last 40 years - unless your name is Steve Nash and you're also leading the league in assists and TS%, and even then it's a bit iffy.
In terms of using stats to predict the MVP winner, none of the usual (PPG, PER, WS, WS/48) actually had all top six vote getters finish in the six. The only stat that placed all six top MVP vote getters in the top six was VORP. The order was different, but the top six finishers in VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) were:
Stephen Curry - 7.9
James Harden - 7.8
Russell Westbrook - 7.6
Chris Paul - 6.9
LeBron James - 5.9
Anthony Davis - 5.7
Somewhat ironically, although LaMarcus Aldridge finished 7th in MVP voting, his teammate Damian Lillard was 7th in VORP at 5.2. And, while Lillard didn't get a single MVP vote, it was Aldridge that failed to finish in the top 20 in VORP. Although at the end of the day, I'm glad we have both players on our team. How many other teams have two different players that finished in the top 7 in MVP voting or VORP - exactly zero. I know the season, and playoffs, ended on a disappointing note, but I do think we need to keep these two together as the core to build around going forward.
BNM
