Dark Horse Blazers?

[Blazinaway]

A nice little positive spin for Sunday mornin reading a day before our first presseason game

http://basketball.realgm.com/articl...ers_&_Grizzlies_Will_Be_Legitimate_Contenders

 

[Kaydow]

This is surprising. I didn't think anybody IN Portland considered this team a contender (not to mention a National Writer).

This does feel a little bit like the '98-99 lockout shortened season for the Blazers. The year before, they had been bounced from the 1st round of the playoffs for the 6th straight year (sound familiar?). They didn't make a huge splash that off season, but added Greg Anthony and Jimmy Jackson. That team wasn't star studded, but they were deep, and that helped them in the condensed season get the #3 seed. They parlayed that into a surprising playoff run that ended in the WCF. Not the exact same situation, but there are some similarities . . .

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I believe that's the first time I've seen Aldridge referred to as a legit MVP candidate. If he's right about that, then he could end up being right about the rest of it too.

 

[crowTrobot]

same guy wrote the article linked on LMA. has a crush on him apparently.

 

[Draco]

I think we're in the mix for the #3 seed this year, outside of OKC and maybe Dallas the west does not have elite teams at all as it did the last 5 years. It's really going to be a crapshoot between Memphis, Clippers, Lakers, Spurs, and our Blazers all having a shot of getting a few lucky breaks and finishing with HCA.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I'm cautiously skep-timistic.

I think that IF a) we utilize our greyhounds to play great D and then run people off of the court, b) we stay relatively healthy, and c) Oden gives us anything at all this year, then we could win the division and get a Top 3 seed.

If we play Nate-ball, regardless of the other two we'll probably be a 5-6

I don't see any way that we don't make the playoffs with this roster, other than 4-5 significant injuries.

 

[magnifier661]

I believe in this team. I believe that they have confidence to do very well. I think more than anything, this team needs to gel. Doesn't matter how many stars you have on the team; you need to work well together. That nba 98-99 team was like that. It just seemed like everyone was comfortable playing together; which helped us to be the best defensive team in the league. We have that ability now but they all have to work together.

And Aldridge is better than brian grant, Matthews is better than rider, Felton and Damon are about the same, Wallace is much better than sheed playing sf, camby isnt as good as sabas, our bench of Batum, Thomas, Crawford are just as good, if not better than Anthony, Jackson, Cato

 

[chris_in_pdx]

This does feel a little bit like the '98-99 lockout shortened season for the Blazers. The year before, they had been bounced from the 1st round of the playoffs for the 6th straight year (sound familiar?). They didn't make a huge splash that off season, but added Greg Anthony and Jimmy Jackson. That team wasn't star studded, but they were deep, and that helped them in the condensed season get the #3 seed. They parlayed that into a surprising playoff run that ended in the WCF. Not the exact same situation, but there are some similarities . . .

One of the other things that happened in 98-99 was that the team as a group stuck around Portland and worked out together and met in secret with the coaching staff to be more advanced than other teams coming out of the lockout.

 

[Pinwheel1]

The problem I see is that I can't envision us not getting off to a slow start. Even with lots of home games. New players, a new offense, and very little preseason to mesh is not a good sceanario IMO. They literally have 1 week to put it all together.

Somehow they need to weather the storm early on so they are in position to get home court in the post season. But I see lots of turnovers, resulting in frustration early on by players, coaches and fans.

 

[Masbee]

This thread is so last week.

http://sportstwo.com/threads/202472-Entirely-Premature-Playoff-Race?p=2695936#post2695936

Lakers just gave away their 3rd best player for nothing. How would you feel about the Blazers if we gave away Gerald Wallace?. They have no PG worth a damn and that matters now that they are dumping the Triangle, and Kobe can't carry that team on his back. When healthy their starting 5 is pretty decent (minus the PG), but their bench? On paper, yeah, better than Blazers, but not by much.

Dal, did just lose their defending/rebounding center and won't be able to replace that, but man are they deep. They should be very strong.

SA, I am not sure why you think they are a lock to be good. They are counting on Duncan and Ginobili having healthy and strong seasons or they are toast.

Clippers? They don't play defense. Wake me up when they do.

OKC - fuck them. Yes they are better than us.

Mem better on paper only if they keep Gasol.

Utah? Where do you get that? Their pieces don't fit very well with each other.

Warriors? Two tiny gunners and who are their bigs? I don't think so.

I think it is Dallas and OKC on top.

Lakers below that.

SA, Mem & Por below that.

Of course all this is depending on trades and free agent signings and health during the season.

So, now you have to throw the Clippers into the mix with Chris Paul, Billups and Butler being a big talent and experience upgrade. Memphis did keep Gasol which is big for them. But, even before the Blazers signed Crawford and Smith, I thought the Blazers were one of several teams that could be in the mix for a top 4 slot. Now, they have depth that can keep them in the mix through some injuries, I like their chances even more.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I've yet to really delve into the composition of our schedule compared to the rest of the West. Without the guaranteed split of games against every team in the league or even in conference some teams are going to get screwed and others gifted inherent advantages. Throw in the compressed schedule it makes every game count a little more than if it was a longer season and I think it's going to have an inevitable affect on seeding. If the Blazers have a favorable schedule then maybe they can get a high seed, but we've yet to see this iteration of the Blazers play a single game together and we have no idea how injuries are going to play out.

Frankly I think this whole year is going to be one big crap shoot, with lots of unfamiliar faces repping the conferences in the playoffs, so who knows how it's going to shake out.

 

[Masbee]

BUMP.

In a short and quick season, it doesn't hurt to have a little update regarding the Western Conference. I was worried about battling teams like Memphis and San Antonio for a good seed. But, injuries are already taking a toll and changing the game:

Lakers - as I thought with a new coach and system and giving away Odom for nothing, they are slow out of the gate. Gasol and Kobe have been playing well. They are getting more out of Murphy, Blake, and McRoberts than I expected, but Fisher and Artest are TERRRIBLE. Key for them: Bymun is having a monster start. If he stays healthy, they cruise into the playoffs.

Dallas is having early trouble integrating 3 new starters and having lost their defensive anchor, but once they have some practice time under their belt, they still look to win a lot of games and be in the top 4. Question is, can they win a playoff series?

San Antonio - as I said, they are 3 players. Duncan looks OOOOOLLLLLLLD. And now, Ginobili is out 2 months with shooting hand surgery. A top 4 seed is likley out of the question. They now have to looked at as nothing better than a dark horse. They might miss the playoffs entirely.

Clippers - as I said, wake me up when they play defense. Griffin can dunk. Yippee! Paul is great, but after that not as good as some (national media whores) claim(ed).

OKC - in another post, I said I hoped that Westbrook continued his trend from last year of ball-hogging, selfish, stupid basketball. And, bless his little heart, he is still at it this season. Until they suffer a major injury, that problem is the biggest hurdle for OKC running through the West this year.

Mempis - they did bring back all their key players, but now an ACL tear to last season's team MVP, Zach Randolph, coupled with the previous season-ending injury to Darrell Arthur who could have shored up the front line until Zach returned, ruins their chance for a top 4 seed.

Utah and Warriors - who the heck was picking them to do anything? I can't remember. I still don't expect they will be a factor.

Denver is off to a nice start. I didn't expect them to keep Nene, but they did, and he is the foundation of their (pretty good) defense. I didn't know Ty Lawson was going to be this good. And Andre Miller, Gallinari and Al Harrington are all playing well to start. Yet, I don't think this team will be a factor. Lawson and Harrinton will drop back to their norm. Nene or Anderson will get hurt for stretches, damaging their defense.

New Tiers:

Tier 1: OKC
Tier 2: Lakers, Dallas, Portland
Tier 3: who cares.

 

[Nikolokolus]

You forgot to mention the Timberpups ... they won't be a high seed, but based on a very small sample size they look very playoff-ish.

 

[SantaDora]

The Pups look good when Rubio is playing right now. The question is - what happens when NBA teams have enough data on him and adjust - will he be able to adjust back - or is he going to be the next Sergio Rodriguez?

 

[MickZagger]

The Pups look good when Rubio is playing right now. The question is - what happens when NBA teams have enough data on him and adjust - will he be able to adjust back - or is he going to be the next Sergio Rodriguez?

They look good with Ridnour in the game, too. The only problem with the Wolves is that they rely way too much on jump shooting.

 

[Nikolokolus]

The Pups look good when Rubio is playing right now. The question is - what happens when NBA teams have enough data on him and adjust - will he be able to adjust back - or is he going to be the next Sergio Rodriguez?

Who knows, but given the fact that he's playing for a coach with a track-record of maximizing talent on offense and that he's probably just flat out a better prospect than Sergio ever was I'd say his chances are pretty good.

 

[SantaDora]

They look good with Ridnour in the game, too. The only problem with the Wolves is that they rely way too much on jump shooting.

Not in the games I watched nor the statistical information. They are -5.5 per 48m with Ridnour, they are +9 per 48m with Rubio.

BTW - if you look at their data from last year, they were -5.5 per 48m with Ridnour last year as well. I would say that most of their improvement so far this year has come when Rubio is on the floor. Love looks slightly better than last year, Beasley is about the same as before - but this team looks like it knows what it is doing on the floor when they have someone that can actually run plays and create for others - and so far, it is mostly Rubio's job.

 

[magnifier661]

Blazers are #1 and that's all that matters.

 

[Masbee]

You forgot to mention the Timberpups ... they won't be a high seed, but based on a very small sample size they look very playoff-ish.

I'm am not on the Timberwolves bandwagon. Love and Rubio. That's pretty much it right? Beasly is terrible. Ridnour and Darko? Might be helping them for the moment, but No. Rubio will be scouted and not look this good all season. Love I have to admit I don't get. His stats are huge, yet I just don't see him being a franchise player on a playoff team.

They have been bad for too long for me to jump on their first hint of decent play. I don't think they get enough of it to matter this season. If I am wrong, I don't really care, as they would be in Tier 3. See above.

 

[KingSpeed]

This is surprising. I didn't think anybody IN Portland considered this team a contender (not to mention a National Writer).

This does feel a little bit like the '98-99 lockout shortened season for the Blazers. The year before, they had been bounced from the 1st round of the playoffs for the 6th straight year (sound familiar?). They didn't make a huge splash that off season, but added Greg Anthony and Jimmy Jackson. That team wasn't star studded, but they were deep, and that helped them in the condensed season get the #3 seed. They parlayed that into a surprising playoff run that ended in the WCF. Not the exact same situation, but there are some similarities . . .

Didn't we add Brian Grant that year too?

 

[KingSpeed]

This is surprising. I didn't think anybody IN Portland considered this team a contender (not to mention a National Writer).

This does feel a little bit like the '98-99 lockout shortened season for the Blazers. The year before, they had been bounced from the 1st round of the playoffs for the 6th straight year (sound familiar?). They didn't make a huge splash that off season, but added Greg Anthony and Jimmy Jackson. That team wasn't star studded, but they were deep, and that helped them in the condensed season get the #3 seed. They parlayed that into a surprising playoff run that ended in the WCF. Not the exact same situation, but there are some similarities . . .

Didn't we add Brian Grant that year too?

 

[KingSpeed]

No it was the season before

 

[magnifier661]

Didn't we add Brian Grant that year too?

No man....