De-Fence

[Rastapopoulos]

I have to admit that I don't believe that our defense can actually be as good as it is. How is this possible? We have two smallish, poor-defending guards. We have no shot-blockers. I don't get it. Stotts is doing some Jedi Voodoo shit. If it can last, I will eat serious crow.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Energy/Effort/Hustle/Gettin' after it/9+ man rotation/1 game at a time/....

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

Team defense, individually we aren't strong but collectively we communicate and hustle very well and we get back on defense about as good as anyone.

 

[RR7]

I have to admit that I don't believe that our defense can actually be as good as it is. How is this possible? We have two smallish, poor-defending guards. We have no shot-blockers. I don't get it. Stotts is doing some Jedi Voodoo shit. If it can last, I will eat serious crow.

Shot blocking doesn't matter as much as fans think. We have one of the better opponent fg%s at the rim. Big key to our defense lately, and I think top nba defenses in general is flexibility. Plumlee isn't stiff, and is very intelligent/high bbiq which helps the back line, even if he isn't a prototypical "rim protector".
Vonleh, Davis, aminu and harkless are all very capable at moving laterally as well to drop and slide on pick and roll coverage, as well as play capably on switches. The ability to switch a 2-4, 2-5, 3-4, 3-5 pick n roll with ease is huge.
Off the bench, crabbe and Henderson have been very active, and big show a good ability to move their feet/stay in front.
Finally, our backcourt isn't great defensively, but both guys are very strong for their size, which is a big help when being posted up.


There was a thread in preseason that mentioned an article talking about how everyone wanted to emulate GS, and neil went opposite of that. And people mocked neil for it. But maybe he viewed their roster differently than article was giving credit (imagine that, an nba gm knowing more about roster constriction than a columnist). Maybe he saw the importance was in their defensive ability to switch everything, match up all over the court, and not be in positions to get taken advantage of in mismatches. People always focus specifically on building to beat the current champ for some reason. More importantly is matching up with any team.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Steals are the most valuable defensive act, when you account for how often they turn into points via fast breaks versus a normal miss or blocked shot. I'll dig up the article but it said a steal is worth the equivalent of 9 points because it stops the opponent AND gives you a very high percentage opportunity on the other end.

Anyway, we have a lot of pesky guys who get steals even though we don't have a big guy who blocks a lot of shots.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-hidden-value-of-the-nba-steal/

I misremembered the thrust of the article but I got it basically right. Steals are a great, underrated indicator of a player's ability to help his team. We've gone from 7.1 steals per game in January to 9.7 steals per game in February. blocks are up a little, but steals is the one area we drastically improved.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/POR/2016/splits/

 

[Draco]

Steals are the most valuable defensive act, when you account for how often they turn into points via fast breaks versus a normal miss or blocked shot. I'll dig up the article but it said a steal is worth the equivalent of 9 points because it stops the opponent AND gives you a very high percentage opportunity on the other end.

Anyway, we have a lot of pesky guys who get steals even though we don't have a big guy who blocks a lot of shots.

Yeah; it's odd we're still well below average in steals for an NBA team. Previous years we had the lowest steal rate in the league though.

The impressive part of our steals is we can do it without gambling. Russell Westbrook gets a lot of steals but gets way out of position.

Dame and CJ are underrated defenders. I don't mean their great but they aren't terrible as many critics say. It doesn't matter if a SG is 6'2" in today's NBA. In some ways it's an advantage to have that quickness defensively. Our schemes expose our guards but allow teammates to be in great positions.

I think the main reason for our defense is depth and Mo Harkless at PF. Other reasons are so many home games, no travel, no back to backs. I'll be very curious how the defense continues to perform.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

I'll put it this way: if we played an entire season like February, we'd be fourth in the league in steals. Our 9.7 steals per game in Feb is well above the league average of 7.9.

 

[WillG]

Energy/Effort/Hustle/Gettin' after it/9+ man rotation/1 game at a time/....

AKA everything that was absent, and drove me nuts, from last years team.
Particularly the anaemic play of LMA and Batum.

This is why I love this team so much - Their all-out, balls to the wall, never say die attitude!

 

[oldfisherman]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-hidden-value-of-the-nba-steal/

I misremembered the thrust of the article but I got it basically right. Steals are a great, underrated indicator of a player's ability to help his team. We've gone from 7.1 steals per game in January to 9.7 steals per game in February. blocks are up a little, but steals is the one area we drastically improved.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/POR/2016/splits/

I agree with the article that a steal has more value than a block. But how does a block have more value than a rebound?

The result of a team stealing the ball is they retake possession of the ball 100% of the time, (or it is not a steal) and they have the next opportunity to score.

The result if a team rebounding the ball is they retake possession of the ball 100% of the time, (or it is not a rebound) and they have the next opportunity to score.

However, when a team blocks a shot, either team has about the same chance of gaining possession of the ball. A blocked shot can go to either team, and still be counted as a block stat. There have been times a player has blocked a shot twice in a row, and the other team still scored next on the third try. The team that blocked both shots did not. Which team has a better chance to win, the team with two blocks, or, the team with two points?

 

[BlazerCaravan]

I think it's because blocks are more rare than rebounds. Not everyone can do it, many come near the rim where FG% is very high, whereas a rebound is already a symptom of a missed shot which happens more than half the time.

Basically, a block REVERSES a score whereas a rebound comes because a shot was already missed.

The article is mostly about how underrated some stats are as indicators of quality. A player who score 6 points a game but averages 3 blocks a game is as valuable to his team as the player who scores 24 points a game but doesn't do anything else.

 

[WillG]

I agree with the article that a steal has more value than a block. But how does a block have more value than a rebound? . . .

. . . However, when a team blocks a shot, either team has about the same chance of gaining possession of the ball. A blocked shot can go to either team, and still be counted as a block stat. There have been times a player has blocked a shot twice in a row, and the other team still scored next on the third try. The team that blocked both shots did not.

Absolutely agree about the possession, but a steal or rebound is not as intimidating as a blocked shot.

There's a psychological level at play when a defender can block shots multiple times.
It can get into a teams head, make for a more intimidating defense, and make the player second guess the type of shot or whether to drive into the paint or not.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Absolutely agree about the possession, but a steal or rebound is not as intimidating as a blocked shot.

There's a psychological level at play when a defender can block shots multiple times.
It can get into a teams head, make for a more intimidating defense, and make the player second guess the type of shot or whether to drive into the paint or not.

Using large sample sizes build in the psychology into the values of the numbers since you'll get an average of everyone who is affected and everyone who isn't.

 

[WillG]

Using large sample sizes build in the psychology into the values of the numbers since you'll get an average of everyone who is affected and everyone who isn't.

Nothing to do with stats or maths.
It's the human part of the game.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Nothing to do with stats or maths.
It's the human part of the game.

Doesn't matter; the numbers take the human part of the game into account. It happens and is recorded, and becomes part of the data.

 

[WillG]

Doesn't matter; the numbers take the human part of the game into account. It happens and is recorded, and becomes part of the data.

Cool. I'll see if I can convince a few players to wear these during games; and get back to you.

 

[oldfisherman]

I agree that a big shot blocking center will alter more shots than they block. But some players will attack a big blocking center with the goal to draw a foul. Others players will shoot from further distance and remove the center’s shot block skills from the game.

The bottom line is, every player on the floor has the same opportunity to alter his opponent’s shots. Rim shot blockers depend on height and jumping ability. Wings depend on speed and athleticism. All depend on timing.

With the game changing to more of a 3pt shot game. I believe a case can now be made that a player that can alter the shot of a 3pr shooter makes a greater impact on wining the game that a rim protecting center that alters shots in the paint.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Cool. I'll see if I can convince a few players to wear these during games; and get back to you.

LOL! You don't have to measure a player's brain to measure every player's aggregate tendencies. All you have to do is record normal game action.

Like let's say we have an amazing shot blocker. The mental game is that he intimidates; this should translate to more opponent mid- and long-range jumpers than the league average, and hopefully to a lower than average FG% up close. These are things that go on in a player's head turning into things that happened in a game turning into numbers reflecting those things.

 

[WillG]

LOL! You don't have to measure a player's brain to measure every player's aggregate tendencies. All you have to do is record normal game action.

Like let's say we have an amazing shot blocker. The mental game is that he intimidates; this should translate to more opponent mid- and long-range jumpers than the league average, and hopefully to a lower than average FG% up close. These are things that go on in a player's head turning into things that happened in a game turning into numbers reflecting those things.

I know BC. It was a joke - hence the winking Devil . .

 

[BlazerCaravan]

I know BC. It was a joke - hence the winking Devil . .

Sorry I'm really bad at this.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

With the game changing to more of a 3pt shot game. I believe a case can now be made that a player that can alter the shot of a 3pr shooter makes a greater impact on wining the game that a rim protecting center that alters shots in the paint.

Great point; this might make steals even more important; you can't really body up to a shooter who can go around you, unless you can also make them lose the ball on the dribble. Crabbe is very effective at this; we've seen several times where the opponent will iso their main guard at the top of the key, and Crabbe will switch onto him. His long arms mean he can be far enough away that the opponent keeps his dribble while he tries to figure out a way around him. It's then that Crabbe times his jab, gets a steal, and a fast break dunk.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Can Guard....
Davis: 4,5
Chief: 1,2,3,4
Harkless: 2, 3, 4
Crabbe: 2,3
Vonleh: 4,5
Hendo: 2,3

 

[blue9]

The reason we're better defensively is because LMA isn't on the team anymore. Seriously. We now have 5 guys on the floor who are all willing to play defense and rotate to cover their teammates backs. Basically, as people have already mentioned: hustle and effort.
Playing 5 guys who aren't individually great, but who play hard and together, will always be better than playing 5 good individual defenders who play individually. And if you've got one guy (LMA) who refuses to rotate your defense will be easy to break.

 

[HomerLovesKoolAid]

The reason we're better defensively is because LMA isn't on the team anymore. Seriously. We now have 5 guys on the floor who are all willing to play defense and rotate to cover their teammates backs. Basically, as people have already mentioned: hustle and effort.
Playing 5 guys who aren't individually great, but who play hard and together, will always be better than playing 5 good individual defenders who play individually. And if you've got one guy (LMA) who refuses to rotate your defense will be easy to break.

Correct. Low effort from our front court, and not just LMA, although he set the tone.

 

[Draco]

The reason we're better defensively is because LMA isn't on the team anymore. Seriously. We now have 5 guys on the floor who are all willing to play defense and rotate to cover their teammates backs. Basically, as people have already mentioned: hustle and effort.
Playing 5 guys who aren't individually great, but who play hard and together, will always be better than playing 5 good individual defenders who play individually. And if you've got one guy (LMA) who refuses to rotate your defense will be easy to break.

Haha is this a joke? He's now a key piece on one of the best defenses of all time.

We're not better defensively either; last years team had a much higher defensive rating even with injuries and a bad bench. The starting unit was exceptional.

 

[blue9]

Haha is this a joke? He's now a key piece on one of the best defenses of all time.

We're not better defensively either; last years team had a much higher defensive rating even with injuries and a bad bench. The starting unit was exceptional.

Regardless of what LMA is doing this year, last year - and in fact, throughout his entire Blazers career - he never rotated on defense. The only time he'd pick up one of his teammate's assignments was on a switch on the perimeter. If someone was coming towards the hoop he'd stick to his man like glue while watching the opponent lay the ball in. That's the very definition of "weak link", and due entirely to either lack of effort or unwillingness.

Also, I think this thread was about our recent defense, not the entire season's defense. Without looking at stats, I think our recent defense has been way better than anything I've seen in the last 5+ seasons.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

The effort put forth by our guys has allowed us to finally graduate from "push through the pick" to "situationally slip and switch". Smarter defensive minds, more effort, better decision making, more TEAM defense and less INDIVIDUAL defense.

 

[Trackjack]

Good defense is a active defense and right now we are very active. That why we are getting steals plus Dame and CJ are getting better on defense. Right now we got 9 players playing great team defense. Look at this Harkless comes in for Von there no let down on defense, Henderson come for CJ defense get better same for Davis and Crabbe coming off the bench there no let down on defense. Most teams NBA team cannot say that in this league.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Haha is this a joke? He's now a key piece on one of the best defenses of all time.

We're not better defensively either; last years team had a much higher defensive rating even with injuries and a bad bench. The starting unit was exceptional.

Last year's team allowed a lower FG%, a lower 3P%, and fewer 3PA than this year's team has. However, I think the OP was referencing the way the defense has improved from what we saw early in the season.

Since Christmas, we've actually only allowed 47% shooting from 2, as compared to 49% last year, have only allowed 23.5 3PA/game (last year was 27), and have allowed 101 ppg, while we allowed 102.8 last year. We're even being more judicious with our fouls, sending more people to the line (26 FTA/g), but opponents are only converting at just over 70%.

So as compared to last year, we actually are better over the span of our past 25 games.