Divisional race update # 89

[julius]

Both teams are 50 games into the season.

Portland 34-16
OKC 25-25

Portland has a 9 game lead with 32 games remaining.

Of the 32 games remaining, Portland only has 14 home games and has 18 road games.

Of the 32 games remaining, OKC has 19 home games and 13 road games. They've played the fewest home games in the Western Conference.

So, here goes.

If Portland finishes the season .400 (their current % over the last 10 games), they'd finish the season with approx 13 more wins (13-19). That means 47-35. I think it's fair to say that would be a huge let down.

For OKC to pass Portland, they would have to go 23-9. Entirely possible.

If Portland finishes the season .500 (16-16), they'd finish the season with 50 wins.

For OKC to pass Portland, they would have to go 26-6. Possible, esp with the # of home games left.

If Portland finishes the season .600 (19-13), they'd finish the season with 53 wins.

OKC would have to go 29-3. This is where it gets a little hard for OKC to win the division.

If Portland finishes the season .65 (21-11) they would finish the season 55-27, OK would have to go 31-1.

If Portland finished with anything above 21 wins, the division is theirs.

So now we have a magic #. Portlands magic # is a combination of 22 Portland wins or OKC losses.

 

[Strenuus]

Well done, Julius.

Seeing as how a 48 point game from Westbrick couldn't help them beat NOLA on their court, it doesn't bode well for them.

 

[Max Power]

I've got a question that Google and Ask Jeeves couldn't answer for me:

If the Blazers fall to 9th but still win the division because OKC finished 10th, do we still get in and a top 4 seed?

 

[magnifier661]

I've got a question that Google and Ask Jeeves couldn't answer for me:

If the Blazers fall to 9th but still win the division because OKC finished 10th, do we still get in and a top 4 seed?

We would

 

[H.C.]

I really hope Westbrook is trying to score 40+ every time out. OKC's record is horrible when he scores over 40.

Chuck it some more Westbrook.

 

[julius]

I've got a question that Google and Ask Jeeves couldn't answer for me:

If the Blazers fall to 9th but still win the division because OKC finished 10th, do we still get in and a top 4 seed?

might've been answered already,but yes, they'd get the #4 seed, but not HCA

 

[magnifier661]

might've been answered already,but yes, they'd get the #4 seed, but not HCA

Yep!

 

[KingSpeed]

Not true, Julius. If we go 22-10, we will be 56-26. If OKC wins out, they are 57-25

 

[Kontrarian]

Hollinger's 2014-15 NBA Playoff Odds says Portland has a 94.9% chance of taking the division.

 

[Strenuus]

Hollinger's 2014-15 NBA Playoff Odds says Portland has a 94.9% chance of taking the division.

After what I saw tonight, I don't know if I believe in the machine!

 

[Orion Bailey]

might've been answered already,but yes, they'd get the #4 seed, but not HCA

Wouldnt we also have HCA in that first round? Division leaders get that I thought?

 

[KeepOnRollin]

Wouldnt we also have HCA in that first round? Division leaders get that I thought?

No. They used to but that was changed.

 

[Orion Bailey]

No. They used to but that was changed.

Damn...

 

[riverman]

Blazers are not dropping out of the playoffs period. You read it here first

 

[KingSpeed]

No. They used to but that was changed.

No they never used to. It used to be division winners were top 3 seeds and when there were only 2 divisions, top 2 seeds but the team with the better record has always had HCA.

 

[KingSpeed]

Blazers are not dropping out of the playoffs period. You read it here first

Nope. But the Clippers might.

 

[julius]

No they never used to. It used to be division winners were top 3 seeds and when there were only 2 divisions, top 2 seeds but the team with the better record has always had HCA.

Correct.

For example, back in 08, the Jazz were the #4 seed (due to winning the NW division) and the Rockets were the #5 seed. The Rockets had 1 more win and thus had HCA (didn't matter, the Jazz won the series anyways). Same (exact) scenario happened in 07 too, Utah winning the Division (and #4) and the Rockets winning more games and getting #5, and losing the series.

Again, same thing happened in 06, but this time Dallas. they had the 2nd best record in the conference, and in the conference finals played the #2 seed Phoenix (because they won their division), but had HCA as the #4 seed, because they had the better record.

Those are the closest we've come to it being funky (at least in the Western Conference. I didn't check the Eastern, because I assumed it never came close to happening there), since they changed the league to 3 divisions per conference back in 04-05. They should change it to just a playoff guarantee if you win the division, not a top 4 seeding.