But I'm slightly confused by one point...why would ice accumulating at the poles have an "ice skater pulling arms in" effect? The ice skater is just maintaining angular momentum, increasing angular velocity as a square of the radius decrease of the outlying mass. But if water is moving, say, in the most extreme mode, as water from the equator to ice on the poles, the radius difference is 21km (about 1/2 of 1% of earth's diameter). Does that really justify an increase in angular velocity that would heavily impact magnetic fields? It would be the equivalent of an ice skater doing everything the same except making fists instead of fingers-out.
I'm much more inclined to gut-feel it by saying that solar 'happenings" are much more likely to have a large effect on the magnetic field, which would then cause shifting in the lead-based core, causing rotational increases (or more likely, "wobbles"). But that's just a gut feeling.