ESPN "Insider"

[ABM]

FWIW

A young 54-win team that kept all its parts and added a veteran point guard, Andre Miller, to the mix means the Rose Garden may finally be ready to live up to its name. Assuming Brandon Roy and Greg Oden stay healthy -- no small assumption -- the Blazers could flirt with 60 wins this season. A fantastic regular season, though, is only going to heighten expectations to get out of the first round, a pressure the Blazers blanched under last spring. And if Roy, Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge are truly a championship-caliber triumvirate, getting out of the first round is a must.

To see which player is taking off, who is crashing to earth and which name you'll need to know for the 2009-10 season, you must be an ESPN Insider.

Trending Up: Greg Oden

Last season: 18.13 PER2009-10 projection: 19.11 PER

Oden should enter this season as the unquestioned starter at center, but the major battle will be keeping him on the floor. That applies on multiple levels. First, he needs to stay healthy after missing big chunks of time in his lone college season and both pro campaigns. Second, he must avoid foul trouble long enough to stay on the court.

Clearly, he can average a double-double if he gets in the high 20s in minutes, and he'll spike it with a shooting percentage in the mid-50s and nearly two blocks a game. That may not live up to the Shaq/Ewing/Robinson hype that greeted Oden coming out of high school, but he's still a heck of a player.-- Hollinger

Trending Down: Joel Przybilla

Last season: 15.46 PER2009-10 projection: 13.02 PER

Przybilla is probably going to switch roles with Oden and move to the bench, but given the history of knee trouble for both players, this position battle may come down to who's healthy than who's playing better. It's extremely likely his numbers from last season will recede, with his rebound rate and field-goal percentage the two areas most likely to feel the pinch.

If he ends up with a PER around 13, he'll still provide value because of his defense. But such a decline would make it much easier to shift him into the reserve role of 15-20 minutes that he seems destined to fill this season.-- Hollinger

Bucher's Name to Know: Andre Miller

He has the reputation of dominating the ball and being more of a scorer than an orchestrator, which is why some question how well he'll fit into an already established -- and successful -- hierarchy. But the various teams he's played for haven't had a surplus of scoring power and needed points from him to win. The other oft-heard knock -- quiet and withdrawn -- is a tough trait when you're looking for leadership from your point guard. Fortunately, the Blazers don't need that from him because they have Roy. All they need is Miller's size and strength against the bigger guards in the West.

Two added plusses: Steve Blake, last year's starter, is ideally suited to be a tempo changer off the bench; and Miller is a workhorse, having missed only five regular-season games in his 10-season career. The biggest area of concern is his best scoring attributes are his post-up game and his ability to pull up in -- or around -- the paint. He is not a 3-point threat, so it's going to take a lot of creativity from the coaching staff to integrate all that with two centers (Przybilla and Oden) who can't step away from the basket and Roy, who also does his best work at mid-range. If everyone has an eye on the bigger prize, though, it can be done.-- Bucher

 

[BenDavis503]

Nice read! Thanks for the insider hookup!

 

[RoyIsClutch07]

FWIW

I don't know. I don't see Andre Miller as a guy that thinks he is going to come in and be a scorer for this team. I see a guy that is ready to do the things this team needs to win. Based on the info that came out of the interview in Vegas with he and Nate. He sounds like he is ready to open a whole bunch more opportunities for the team with this play making ability.

 

[Blaz06Draft]

I posted the following on BEdge in response to this article at http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/9/2/1012127/oden-per-jump:

Hollinger has Oden's PER increasing by about one point. "Trending Up: Greg Oden. Last season: 18.13, PER 2009-10 projection: 19.11 PER." Looking at the history of PER jump from rookie year to 2nd year for a bunch of noteworthy big men (first rounders), the average 2nd year PER jump is 2.5. This would take Oden's PER to over 20 (20.63). This would be better than Dwight Howard's 2nd year PER.

There typically is a jump in scoring from rookie to 2nd year when looking on a per 36 minute basis. For example, Howard went from 13.2 pts/36 minutes to 15.4, while Yao Ming went from 16.7 to 19.1. These are increases of 2.2 and 2.4, respectively. If you add the 2.3 average to Oden's rookie year number, you go from 14.8 to 17.1. So it's not unreasonable to think that Oden would score 17 points if he plays full starter minutes.

As far as rebounding, Oden is already a phenomemal offensive rebounder. His got 4.6 o-rebounds per 36 last year. He also had 7.0 d-rebounds per 36, for a total of 11.6. Howard increased his d-rebounds by 1.5 per 36 in his second year. Such an increase would take Oden to 8.5 d-rebounds and 13.1 total rebounds per 36. If Oden increases his d-rebounds to Pryzbilla's level (9.5 per 36), it would add another 1.0, for a total of 14.1 rebounds.

So Greg could be a 17/13 player is he plays 36 minutes!

Oden's big challenge will be staying on the court, given his foul problems last year. This should improve with experience and being in better shape. If he plays 30 minutes, the 17/13 scales to 15/11.

I am going into this season quite optimistic that Oden "surprises" us with what is perceived to be a breakout year. He might be a candidate for most improved, if he lives up to these figures, which are based upon historical trends on top of his rookie year performance.

He might even make a bigger jump than the averages used in this analysis. Some players do: it's the nature of averages. Two factors supporting a greater jump are 1) Greg will be in better shape and one more year removed from microfracture surgery, and 2) Andre Miller and his ability to get big men the ball in scoring position. If he does this, the Blazers are deep into the playoffs!!!

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

Good stuff. I think that the refs will be more comfortable with Oden as well and give him some grace. That will help build some confidence. That said, I still think year 2 is another project year. Better, but still a project.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Oden should enter this season as the unquestioned starter at center

Steve Blake, last year's starter, is ideally suited to be a tempo changer off the bench

Someone should let Nate know this.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Good stuff. I think that the refs will be more comfortable with Oden as well and give him some grace. That will help build some confidence. That said, I still think year 2 is another project year. Better, but still a project.

Do you mean the refs who were officiating the games last year, or the YMCA/Rec league scabs that will be calling the games this year?