ESPN's summer forecast predicts the Blazers to finish 4th in the West @ 51-31

[SlyPokerDog]

[TWEET]499246505228644354[/TWEET]

 

[SlyPokerDog]

1. Thunder
2. Spurs
3. Clippers
4. Blazers

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11334331/2014-summer-forecast-west-standings&ex_cid=espnnbaTwitter

 

[SlyPokerDog]

For the EC they have,

1. Cavs
2. Bulls
3. Raptors
4. Wizards
5. Hornets
6. Heat
7. Hawks
8. Nets

9. Pacers
10. Knicks
11. Pistons
12. Celtics
13. Magic
14. Bucks
15. 76ers

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11334160/2014-summer-forecast-east-standings

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

Can't complain with that

 

[Boise Blazer]

So lost a little in this is that they are predicting that the 4th place team will win 51 games!!!! The west is going to be crazy this year.

 

[HailBlazers]

1. Thunder
2. Spurs
3. Clippers
4. Blazers

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11334331/2014-summer-forecast-west-standings&ex_cid=espnnbaTwitter

Smart.

 

[tester551]

Remember Blazers one 54 games last year and only finished 5th.

With 51 games, they would have barely made the playoffs.

 

[illmatic99]

Remember Blazers one 54 games last year and only finished 5th.

With 51 games, they would have barely made the playoffs.

I think the thought is that more competition in the middle of the WC (LAL/NO/PHX/GS/etc all will be better this year), so win totals will be deflated. TBH, I thought that would happen last year, but injuries changed that.

 

[crandc]

Also the West won't feast on the East quite as much in the coming season, when last year there were Miami, Indiana and scrubs.

 

[Eastoff]

It should be another exciting and interesting season.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Also the West won't feast on the East quite as much in the coming season, when last year there were Miami, Indiana and scrubs.

Hmm... I'm not sure what to make of the East. The ONLY two teams that gave the West fits last season, the Heat and the Pacers, have both gotten a LOT weaker, but overall, there will be more parity in the East this coming season. Still, I think the Cavs would be the ONLY Eastern Conference team that would be a lock to make the playoffs if they were in the Western Conference. Perhaps fewer truly awful teams in the East this year, but outside of Cleveland, I'm seeing a whole lot of mediocrity.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Remember Blazers one 54 games last year and only finished 5th.

With 51 games, they would have barely made the playoffs.

Well, they actually have all four of the top teams winning fewer games this year than the last:

OKC from 59 to 58
SAS from 62 to 57
LAC from 57 to 56
POR from 54 to 51

The complete results aren't posted yet, but they also have HOU, GSW and MEM all winning less than 50 games this season. Looks like they are expecting much more parity in the league, over all, this season.

BNM

 

[illmatic99]

Hmm... I'm not sure what to make of the East. The ONLY two teams that gave the West fits last season, the Heat and the Pacers, have both gotten a LOT weaker, but overall, there will be more parity in the East this coming season. Still, I think the Cavs would be the ONLY Eastern Conference team that would be a lock to make the playoffs if they were in the Western Conference. Perhaps fewer truly awful teams in the East this year, but outside of Cleveland, I'm seeing a whole lot of mediocrity.

BNM

Ya I know it's a big "if," but DRose is back and healthy, man. If he stays that way, they'll be nasty. Their lineup is sick and Thibs is a monster. I'd put them in the top 4 if they played in the west

 

[Boob-No-More]

Ya I know it's a big "if," but DRose is back and healthy, man. If he stays that way, they'll be nasty. Their lineup is sick and Thibs is a monster. I'd put them in the top 4 if they played in the west

Agreed, it's a BIG if on DRose. IF he can be healthy and IF he can return to his former level of play. He only played 49 games over the past three seasons and hasn't played at an elite level since 2010-11. He'll have to prove he's really and truly back for me to take Chicago seriously as a contender.

BNM

 

[illmatic99]

They updated the rest of the west:

1. OKC
2. SAS
3. LAC
4. POR
5. DAL
6. MEM
7. GSW
8. HOU

DAL being a bit overrated here.

 

[Boob-No-More]

They updated the rest of the west:

1. OKC
2. SAS
3. LAC
4. POR
5. DAL
6. MEM
7. GSW
8. HOU

DAL being a bit overrated here.

Agreed. I don't get the Dallas love. They are the ONLY Western Conference team they predict will win more games this year than last. Granted, it's only a 1-game improvement, but it lacks consistency when they predict all the other top 8 will lose more games this year than last.

BNM

 

[BoBoBREWSKI]

#4 sounds good to me! Home court in the first round!

 

[Denny Crane]

Agreed. I don't get the Dallas love. They are the ONLY Western Conference team they predict will win more games this year than last. Granted, it's only a 1-game improvement, but it lacks consistency when they predict all the other top 8 will lose more games this year than last.

BNM

Dallas' starting 5: D. Harris, M. Ellis, C. Parsons, D. Nowitzki, T. Chandler. Seems pretty solid, tho Harris is a shadow of what he once was.

 

[Minstrel]

Dallas' starting 5: D. Harris, M. Ellis, C. Parsons, D. Nowitzki, T. Chandler. Seems pretty solid, tho Harris is a shadow of what he once was.

It's decent--it would have been a great starting lineup several years ago. Nowitzki is still a hell of a player, but he's declined from his prime. Chandler is still a good defender but he also is declining. Harris, as you said. Ellis has fit in well but, like everyone in that lineup currently other than Chandler, plays weak to no defense.

It should be a relatively potent offensive lineup but a declining Chandler won't be able to drag them across the finish line on the defensive end. I think they'll be in the 7/8 seed mix.

 

[Denny Crane]

It's decent--it would have been a great starting lineup several years ago. Nowitzki is still a hell of a player, but he's declined from his prime. Chandler is still a good defender but he also is declining. Harris, as you said. Ellis has fit in well but, like everyone in that lineup currently other than Chandler, plays weak to no defense.

It should be a relatively potent offensive lineup but a declining Chandler won't be able to drag them across the finish line on the defensive end. I think they'll be in the 7/8 seed mix.

Parsons is better than average defending SFs. Harris gave up a 13.6 PER for opposing PGs and 11.4 for opposing SGs last season. Seems like good defense to me. Ellis gave up a 12.9 PER to opposing SGs.

But 82games.com is really messed up. It's hard to tell if the numbers are legit.

 

[Minstrel]

Parsons is better than average defending SFs. Harris gave up a 13.6 PER for opposing PGs and 11.4 for opposing SGs last season. Seems like good defense to me. Ellis gave up a 12.9 PER to opposing SGs.

But 82games.com is really messed up. It's hard to tell if the numbers are legit.

The PERs against are tough to parse because the team's defensive schemes and help defenders play into that as well. From what most seem to think, Ellis has always been a defensive liability and Parsons is below average defensively, and my own observations haven't run counter to that.

 

[Denny Crane]

The PERs against are tough to parse because the team's defensive schemes and help defenders play into that as well. From what most seem to think, Ellis has always been a defensive liability and Parsons is below average defensively, and my own observations haven't run counter to that.

So you're agreeing with me that Dallas' defense could be pretty good because of their defensive schemes and help defense.

Good.

 

[Pinwheel1]

They updated the rest of the west:

1. OKC
2. SAS
3. LAC
4. POR
5. DAL
6. MEM
7. GSW
8. HOU

I think the top 3 teams are right. (Unless Cp3 or Durant go down) But the next 5 are a crap shoot. We are talking about a few games separating them, so as always it will come down to injuries.

Personally I think Houston and GS will finish higher than Dallas and Memphis. But again it is going to be really close.

 

[crandc]

Miami is not a championship contender but still has enough talent to not be a pushover; agree Chicago could be improved, Cleveland will be nasty, Pacers even without Paul George will be at least decent.

Dallas? Why would they move up in the standings over last year?

Personally I think Spurs end up #1, and I am not sure the Clips will be ahead of Portland; I see a #3 seed as not out of reach.
But Houston had a better off season! Why are they only #8?

 

[Boob-No-More]

Miami is not a championship contender but still has enough talent to not be a pushover; agree Chicago could be improved, Cleveland will be nasty, Pacers even without Paul George will be at least decent.

Disagree on the Pacers. They completely nosedived after the Granger trade last season and now have lost two starters (Lance Stephenson and Paul George) They had one of the worst benches in the league last year. So, I don't look for anyone to step right in and replace George and Stephenson.

Portland; I see a #3 seed as not out of reach.
But Houston had a better off season! Why are they only #8?

Was that supposed to be in green font?

BNM

 

[oldmangrouch]

Well, they actually have all four of the top teams winning fewer games this year than the last:

OKC from 59 to 58
SAS from 62 to 57
LAC from 57 to 56
POR from 54 to 51

The complete results aren't posted yet, but they also have HOU, GSW and MEM all winning less than 50 games this season. Looks like they are expecting much more parity in the league, over all, this season.

BNM

That seems like a reasonable prediction. Finishing 4th would have to be considered a successful season for the Blazers. Where you finish relative to the competition would seem more important that specific win totals.

 

[Minstrel]

So you're agreeing with me that Dallas' defense could be pretty good because of their defensive schemes and help defense.

Parsons wasn't a Maverick last year.

Ellis having a good PER against doesn't mean he's a good defender or even that he's a good defender within the Mavericks' scheme. IMO, it mostly means that he got a lot of help that compromised their defense elsewhere, leading to more open shots.

Chandler will help but, again, in his decline phase probably not enough.

 

[Denny Crane]

Parsons wasn't a Maverick last year.

Ellis having a good PER against doesn't mean he's a good defender or even that he's a good defender within the Mavericks' scheme. IMO, it mostly means that he got a lot of help that compromised their defense elsewhere, leading to more open shots.

Chandler will help but, again, in his decline phase probably not enough.

The Mavericks won 49 games last season. They're basically replacing Marion with Parsons and Dalembert with Chandler. Seems like the slight upgrade they're predicting is right to me.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Chandler will help but, again, in his decline phase probably not enough.

Agreed. While Chandler is only 31, his body has a lot of NBA miles on it. He's only played more than 66 games once in the last six seasons - and that was 2010-11 when he won the championship with the Mavs. Unfortunately for Mark Cuban, 2010-11 Tyson Chandler is not walking through that door ever again. You should have kept him when you had him. Too late now... Hell the Knicks couldn't even make the playoffs in the pathetic East least season with Chandler as their starting center. He's not going to make the aging, defenseless Mavs into a contender in the West.

BNM

 

[Minstrel]

The Mavericks won 49 games last season. They're basically replacing Marion with Parsons and Dalembert with Chandler. Seems like the slight upgrade they're predicting is right to me.

They're predicting a pretty large upgrade relative to the rest of the West, which I don't see. I don't think they made up that much ground relative to everyone else. Dallas finished 8th last year and I went with 7/8 this year, which allows for the possibility of a slight upgrade.