Examining the 2007 draft

[ebott]

With all the negative talk about Oden I figured now would be a good time to discuss how the 2007 draft would have gone differently if we knew then what we know now.

How far do you think Oden would have fallen?

 

[Ed O]

He would not have fallen. He still would have gone #1.

Ed O.

 

[Sheldon Shape]

#1, still.

 

[RoyToy]

If I knew Oden would have MF surgery and Durant would be 4th in scoring before he even turns 21, I don't think that decision is so easy. Not at all.

 

[Minstrel]

Still #1. Fans are down on Oden, but I think his underlying numbers are strong and GMs would still see his performance as consistent with a top center talent.

 

[ebott]

I'm saying #2 simply because of how impressive Kevin Durant has been. I'll take the potential of a hurt Greg over a healthy Horford and nobody else even comes close.

 

[AgentDrazenPetrovic]

Second. Durant would have been #1 if it were known greg would have microfracture surgery.

 

[AgentDrazenPetrovic]

HOWEVER, I believe that if Oden went to Seattle, they would still be the supersonics.

just the incredible hype would have gotten the city on its feet to save the sonics.

 

[alex42083]

G.O. was the consensus No. 1. You'd be pretty stupid to have turned him down at the time then, and now.

 

[RoyToy]

G.O. was the consensus No. 1. You'd be pretty stupid to have turned him down at the time then, and now.

That was then. Now, not so much.

Oden may still warrant the #1 pick if the draft was today and we know what we know(maybe), but it's very, very, close. Durant is that good.

 

[AgentDrazenPetrovic]

both were essentially can't lose prospects. the thing is that the prevailing thought is big men = rings while swingmen = scoring championships.

probably and likely going to hold true.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Kevin Durant has improved massively since last season, when he was looking like a one-dimensional gunner. But he's still a high volume shooting small forward. How many of them lead their teams to championships?

Comparing Durant with Oden (viewed pessimistically) is like comparing Glenn Rice with Alonzo Mourning. Or Bernard King with Wes Unseld. Or Alex English with Dikembe Mutombo. Sure, the former player in each pair gets a lot more attention and probably will sell more shoes, but the latter is way more important to their team's success. If Durant can learn to play defense then it might be more of a contest.

As it is, if I had a time machine and could go back and be Pritchard on draft night knowing what I know now, I think my choices ranked in order would be:

1. Draft Oden
2. Trade the pick.

I just don't see Durant pushing this team over the hump. I'd be more tempted by Horford than Durant.

 

[Kaydow]

Well, there was a pretty good swingman out of Chicago a few years back that won a few titles. You may remember him . . . He never had a Center and won 6 rings. Look at the best teams in the NBA right now: Lakers (Kobe) Cleveland (Labron) Boston (Pierce/Allen) All of them have elite SG/SF's.

I would take Durrant over Oden today, no question. While I agree that a dominant big man is a rarity, I don't think Oden is one. I think (even if he does stay relatively healthy in his career) he is a good/not great big man. On the other hand, I think Durrant and Labron will be THE premier SF's in the league for the next 10 years.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Kevin Durant all day!

 

[Big Frame]

Durant 1st
Stucky 2nd
Oden third?

 

[Minstrel]

Durant 1st
Stucky 2nd
Oden third?

Oden undrafted free agent.

 

[Denny Crane]

I remember talking to gambitnut on AIM before the draft and telling him that Durant is going to be like Kobe and is a can't miss. I suggested the Blazers draft him, keep ZBo, and play LMA at C.

With 20-20 hindsight, you'd have to take Durant #1 and consider that Oden would be #2 or maybe even lower.

Oden had all that hype and he's still so young... We haven't seen his real upside

 

[Minstrel]

Oden had all that hype and he's still so young... We haven't seen his real upside

Sure we have. He has a PER close to 18 as a rookie, despite having had a year off from basketball. In addition, he's been a difference-maker on defense. The team's lame perimeter defense allows slashers galore and Oden has been a presence in closing the lane. Of course, those slashers galore have also racked up his fouls, leading to fewer minutes.

I also thought Durant was can't-miss and he's proving me right. I thought Oden was can't-miss, too. Unless he continues to get injured, I think he's proving me right, too, based on his play on the court.

 

[Denny Crane]

Sure we have. He has a PER close to 18 as a rookie, despite having had a year off from basketball. In addition, he's been a difference-maker on defense. The team's lame perimeter defense allows slashers galore and Oden has been a presence in closing the lane. Of course, those slashers galore have also racked up his fouls, leading to fewer minutes.

I also thought Durant was can't-miss and he's proving me right. I thought Oden was can't-miss, too. Unless he continues to get injured, I think he's proving me right, too, based on his play on the court.

Durant is closer to being the best player in the league than Oden is to being the best C on the team.

That's saying a lot about Przybilla, who I think is underrated.

 

[Mr. J]

Wow, who said tenth?

 

[MAS RipCity]

#2...I am seriously worried about his body..just seems very fragile. Again, not a knock on him personally, but maybe his body wasn't made for the long haul that is the NBA?
If he didn't have the injuries, I'd say #1, because when on the court, he does produce nicely.

 

[Minstrel]

Durant is closer to being the best player in the league than Oden is to being the best C on the team.

Durant wasn't particularly close last year, his rookie season. Oden's in his rookie season.

Also, I think post-oriented big men and point guards have the toughest transition to make in the pro game. Swingmen have an easier transition. They can initiate the offense themselves, while post-oriented big men, even very good ones, need to be fed the ball. Also, their defensive miscues result in fouls, which limit their court time, while the miscues of perimeter players generally just lead to being beaten...but not a foul.

That's saying a lot about Przybilla, who I think is underrated.

Well, I think Oden is a better player than Przybilla. But Przybilla is better able to stay on the floor, so he has been more valuable. I agree that Przybilla is underrated and a very quality player.

Oden hasn't been dominant this year. However, his play has been consistent with essentially unanimous scouting appraisal of him. He's struggling with fouls, and not being given the ball a lot, which drags down his per-game numbers, but I think his offensive, defensive and rebounding efficiency has been very good.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

The way I look at it is; who would I trade him for right now? It actually didn't turn out to be that good of a draft, but definitely Durant or Rodney Stuckey. And I would have to think about Jeff Green and Al Horford.

 

[DaRizzle]

2nd but that draft sucked besides Durant, Oden, and Horford

link to draft

 

[Toko]

Give him this year+next year before you decide. He could still pan out to be a very good center(though not a once in a generation one).

 

[C_note]

Knowing that Greg would have MF surgery, but not knowing how he would rehab/deal with it and come back, Durant #1. Otherwise, Oden still #1, and Oden #1 knowing what we know today.

 

[Natebishop3]

The microfracture and other injuries would have tipped the scales in Durant's favor.

 

[MrJayremmie]

As of right now, I think he'd go #2.

 

[crandc]

For those whose memory does not extend two years, it was said at the time that Durant would eventually win scoring titles and Oden would eventually win championships.

So far neither had done either, but at least in his rookie year Oden's team is making the playoffs. Durant's is not close.

I guess it depends on whether you prefer flashy numbers or team success. KP opted for team success and surely the Blazers have been more successful than OKC, unless your name is Mixum, in which case won-loss record does not count.

 

[Stevenson]

Nobody would have picked a offensively-raw, injury-prone center first or second - someone who has played maybe 30 games out of 130 or so in two years.

No way.