First decent Random Survey on where CP3 will play next season

[espn_hall_of_famer]

Haven't seen too many random surveys on national sites that list the five legit choices on where CP3 will be next season (the four from his list plus being sweet-talked into staying in New Orleans).

So here's a random site visited by random guests on a national issue which has reached a statistically valid n sample size of 400 to be within a 95% confidence interval.


The results of the voting so far are:

Portland - 39.1%
New York - 23.9%
Orlando - 22.6%
Dallas - 8.2%
New Orleans - 6.2%

Pretty exciting if you're a Blazer fan. Not sure why New York has so many votes as they can't get anything done until December, so I'm pretty sure they would be out of the picture by now. I think you could count on him staying in New Orleans a little more as well, but probably with NY having a higher population, it is getting more random votes, and nobody from New Orleans is voting driving those votes down.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ting-each-trade-suitor-for-the-all-star-guard

 

[Entity]

Which site? (link please)

 

[Nikolokolus]

So if we win the vote he gets traded to us? Sweet.

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

Which site? (link please)

Sorry. Fixed.

 

[EGame]

That is interesting. On the flip side, ESPN, the fucking idiots they are, are conducting a poll about where CP3 will play this season and Portland is not even listed as an option.

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

That is interesting. On the flip side, ESPN, the fucking idiots they are, are conducting a poll about where CP3 will play this season and Portland is not even listed as an option.

I noticed that. I wondered who did that over there as that was pretty dumb when it's really only down to a few options now. I thought about making a call, but figured it wouldn't fix it and wouldn't be worth stepping on some poor intern's toes that probably didn't know any better.

 

[B-Roy]

So if we win the vote he gets traded to us? Sweet.

It's only a decent random survey BECAUSE we won the vote.

 

[Pritchslap Madness]

NBA.com has same poll on it with out Blazers. Its Hornets, Magic, Knicks or other team. lol Looks like the national media doesn't think blazers will get Paul. 35% say Knicks!!

 

[STOMP]

That is interesting. On the flip side, ESPN, the fucking idiots they are, are conducting a poll about where CP3 will play this season and Portland is not even listed as an option.

they aren't idiots. They don't want it to happen because that would mean that he's gone to a team where there are no ratings... and ratings are their business. As far as they're concerned, they'd probably rather he retire then go to Portland and require the spotlight to leave the preferred big market teams that bring in their revenue

STOMP

 

[jlprk]

espn_hall_of_famer

As the 20+ ESPN grads here know, HOF is one of the 5 main posters remaining on the ESPN board. He has been there much longer than the other 4, but the terrorist moderator doesn't value length of service. HOF, why don't you dump that dying board and post only here. It would be like moving from New Orleans to Portland.

As for the topic, I'll expand what Nik said: There is no causal link between success in a poll and probability of a trade.

 

[barfo]

As for the topic, I'll expand what Nik said: There is no causal link between success in a poll and probability of a trade.

Indeed. Even if the results were statistically meaningful, which they are definitely not (despite 400+ responses!), all it would show is what fans think. And what fans think is worth, well, you know.

barfo

 

[jlprk]

I see HOF joined this board Feb. 2009. He must have joined to play the predictions game, because February was one of the times the terrorist moderator blew up the game. He deleted 2000 of my posts, including all my predictions result posts that I had run for 2 years since the terrorist had blown up Gramps' posting history. Demoralized, I changed my name and tried to soldier on, conducting the game to the end of the season. Then I dumped the board and the game is no more. (And there are a LOT fewer posts there without mine and the responses to them.)

HOF and Nuraman are the smartest ones left. Nuraman posts to many teams, which is the ESPN board advantage, so I doubt he'll come here, but he might get motivated since they've been deleting his posts too. I'll ask him.

 

[axs88]

I see HOF joined this board Feb. 2009. He must have joined to play the predictions game, because February was one of the times the terrorist moderator blew up the game. He deleted 2000 of my posts, including all my predictions result posts that I had run for 2 years since the terrorist had blown up Gramps' posting history. Demoralized, I changed my name and tried to soldier on, conducting the game to the end of the season. Then I dumped the board and the game is no more. (And there are a LOT fewer posts there without mine and the responses to them.)

HOF and Nuraman are the smartest ones left. Nuraman posts to many teams, which is the ESPN board advantage, so I doubt he'll come here, but he might get motivated since they've been deleting his posts too. I'll ask him.

Let it go already, no one here cares about the ESPN board, ESPN mod and who used to be who over there. Get over it. How many posters do you see constantly posting about FanHome and BBB?

 

[mgb]

Portland's up to 45.1. 532 voters. Think we might be influencing it now.

 

[jlprk]

no one here cares

Speak for yourself, not for everyone. I don't know what your motivation is to whine about it, but I think Denny and the regulars here would like it if we got HOF and Nuraman over here. You may take offense at my describing how this board is far superior to that one, but I think others find the comparison interesting. This is about the 3rd post I've written about it in 10 months, contrary to your word "constant." I know I'm interested when people talk about previous boards they've been on.

 

[jlprk]

I'll try not to mention it anymore (although Denny should love it when I put down the competition). By the way, between my previous 2 posts above, I e-mailed Nuraman and asked him to try posting here a little.

 

[axs88]

Speak for yourself, not for everyone. I don't know what your motivation is to whine about it, but I think Denny and the regulars here would like it if we got HOF and Nuraman over here. You may take offense at my describing how this board is far superior to that one, but I think others find the comparison interesting. This is about the 3rd post I've written about it in 10 months, contrary to your word "constant." I know I'm interested when people talk about previous boards they've been on.

Sorry if I was a little harsh. Maybe it's that you have "The ESPN mod is insane" in your avatar (plus the creepy Trader Bob pic).

 

[PHXBlazer1]

jprkl is awesome

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

espn_hall_of_famer

As the 20+ ESPN grads here know, HOF is one of the 5 main posters remaining on the ESPN board. He has been there much longer than the other 4, but the terrorist moderator doesn't value length of service. HOF, why don't you dump that dying board and post only here. It would be like moving from New Orleans to Portland.

As for the topic, I'll expand what Nik said: There is no causal link between success in a poll and probability of a trade.

You know, I thought long and hard about those 12 words that Nik said, and it did really deflate my bubble. It is very true, no matter what type of analysis we do to think we've got more young pieces to add, no matter if Canzano is quoting we have a 20% chance and the Godfather is quoting we have a 10% chance, and New Orleans is quoting we have a 1% chance - the reality is that this isn't an election and the highest percentage doesn't mean anything. At the end of the day it will be a bidding war auction between Cho and Otis Smith of Orlando as to who will offer the sweetest deal to New Orleans and who they feel they want to build their team around.

So good job by you Nik in really helping me see the light. Sometimes us numbers folks get so caught up in getting people's numbers and projections correct, we forget when it's meaningless.

PS - As a site note, I agree that by posting it on this site and only having a sample size of 400-500 votes, we've single-handedly driven it towards Portland. So it is no longer random and pure. LOL. But it would be nice of ESPN or NBA.com fixed theirs so we could get a better reflection from a site that will get tens of thousands of votes.

 

[jlprk]

Great to see you here, HOF !! (HOF works statistics for a living and I used to post stat articles I found for him.) HOF, here are the stat articles I've found in the last couple of weeks. I suspect axs is right and I've shown my anti-ESPN revenge a couple of times too many over the last year, so I'll cool it on mentioning that. And PH1BlazerX is awesome, too!

Pick and roll shooting
http://nbaplaybook.com/2010/07/02/can-a-poor-shooting-pg-run-an-effective-pick-and-roll/

Do foul shooters choke in the last minute of close games?
http://sabermetricresearch.blogspot.com/2010/07/do-foul-shooters-choke-in-last-minute.html

Do individaul +/- stats combine into a team with good +/- ?
http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7038

Arturo Galletti writes statistical articles.
http://arturogalletti.wordpress.com/

 

[Nikolokolus]

You know, I thought long and hard about those 12 words that Nik said, and it did really deflate my bubble. It is very true, no matter what type of analysis we do to think we've got more young pieces to add, no matter if Canzano is quoting we have a 20% chance and the Godfather is quoting we have a 10% chance, and New Orleans is quoting we have a 1% chance - the reality is that this isn't an election and the highest percentage doesn't mean anything. At the end of the day it will be a bidding war auction between Cho and Otis Smith of Orlando as to who will offer the sweetest deal to New Orleans and who they feel they want to build their team around.

So good job by you Nik in really helping me see the light. Sometimes us numbers folks get so caught up in getting people's numbers and projections correct, we forget when it's meaningless.

PS - As a site note, I agree that by posting it on this site and only having a sample size of 400-500 votes, we've single-handedly driven it towards Portland. So it is no longer random and pure. LOL. But it would be nice of ESPN or NBA.com fixed theirs so we could get a better reflection from a site that will get tens of thousands of votes.

Well ... erm ... you're welcome? I didn't really mean to deflate your bubble, it's just one of those times when it doesn't matter what anybody thinks -- except for Dell Demps. Hopefully he can be swayed by the will of the people.