Fixing the Blazers Part 1 & II (1 Viewer)

[cmeese47]

Here is how to fix LA and the Blazers offense Part 1:

The biggest piece of the Blazers offense that needs fixing is Lamarcus Aldridge.

To save time I will rehash a little of what I wrote in the Memphis game thread for anyone who might of missed it. He needs a little more Blake Griffin in his game, Griffin once a terrible shooter is now converting at a similar clip to LA from mid range but Blake rarely just relies on his jump shot, he aggressively moves without the ball forcing teams to take notice in order to prevent a highlight reel jam. Blake also fights hard for post position often getting deep position to score easy buckets, jams or draw fouls. Sure Blake's style is not sustainable over a 12-15 year career but LA needs to use his god given tools to make the team better, sure he might get a few more bumps and bruises along the way but his attempts at being Dirk are not going to get it done in the playoffs. Either LA needs to bang in the post or shoot the three because like it or not LA and not Batum is the problem with this team right now.

Right now at 46% shooting LA is putting up 92 points per 100 shots to match that number from three point range, LA would need to be able to shoot just over 30%. It is highly plausible that a man who shoots 18-23 foot jumpers at around a 41% clip would be able to take a step back without losing 11% off of his shooting percentage. Chris Bosh is the perfect example of someone LA should emulate; Bosh who had always been a prolific mid range shooter started adding the three point shot into his repertoire. This season on 2.4 attempts per game Bosh is shooting 38.3% from deep. This shot has allowed Bosh to remain efficient without requiring him to bang in the post and get 8-10 FTA a night. It is the same model that worked for Dirk. The fear of the step back three will make LA that much harder to guard on pick and roll; it will also make his face up game easier by forcing his man to jump out even further to prevent an open jumper. In addition, it will make life easier for the Blazer guards specifically Lillard on pick and roll by creating more space.

Basically LA needs an infusion of Dirk and Bosh to his game during the regular season. A three point shot will make him a more efficient scorer and a harder cover; in addition it will allow him to continue to play with the same amount of finesse as his current jump shooting style. Then he needs to add in some Blake Griffin during the playoffs when jump shots are more closely contested and scoring becomes that much more difficult. It is here we need LA to be getting 10 FTA per game. He is capable of leading this team but without some significant changes LA will never be the Batman Portland needs. Right now LA is no Batman and a few more 8-23 nights he might not even be an acceptable Robin.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Re: Fixing the Blazers Part 1

We may be the official forum of the Blazers but that doesn't mean the players read anything posted here.

 

[cmeese47]

Re: Fixing the Blazers Part 1

We may be the official forum of the Blazers but that doesn't mean the players read anything posted here.

Nor would I want them to see half the crap written about them on here, but regardless of whether or not this information will reach the players, why should that preclude myself or anyone else on here from offering advice and analysis?

 

[blue9]

Re: Fixing the Blazers Part 1

You know, I agree. If LMA is going to shoot jumpers he should really take one step back and shoot a 3 instead. Shooting 2s makes him a very inefficient scorer, but the chance to get 50% more points out of essentially the same shot would make him more efficient, but would do even more for the team aside from the extra points. Currently teams don't defend him on the pick/pop - they know that LMA shooting 18' jumpers will rarely beat them. So they give them to him. What this does is throw Lillard - the guy with the ball - into a double-team every single time he runs off of a LMA screen. So you've got your two best players shooting low-percentage jumpers or getting jammed with two defenders. BUT - if LMA is shooting 3s at anything close to the percentage he's shooting on his long-2s then the opponent can't afford to swarm Lillard with two defenders on every pick. This puts Lillard in single coverage, where he's freer to maneuver, pass, and score.

 

[cmeese47]

Re: Fixing the Blazers Part 1

You know, I agree. If LMA is going to shoot jumpers he should really take one step back and shoot a 3 instead. Shooting 2s makes him a very inefficient scorer, but the chance to get 50% more points out of essentially the same shot would make him more efficient, but would do even more for the team aside from the extra points. Currently teams don't defend him on the pick/pop - they know that LMA shooting 18' jumpers will rarely beat them. So they give them to him. What this does is throw Lillard - the guy with the ball - into a double-team every single time he runs off of a LMA screen. So you've got your two best players shooting low-percentage jumpers or getting jammed with two defenders. BUT - if LMA is shooting 3s at anything close to the percentage he's shooting on his long-2s then the opponent can't afford to swarm Lillard with two defenders on every pick. This puts Lillard in single coverage, where he's freer to maneuver, pass, and score.

If you need any more proof that it works just look at Channing Frye, we all saw they player he was in Portland basically a poor mans version of LA and the player he became once he added the three point shot. Frye is a decent player but he is not in LA's league a small change can make for drastic improvements.

 

[Sinobas]

Re: Fixing the Blazers Part 1

Teams will give LA all the mid range turn around fade aways he wants. It's not a good shot. Portland was better off without him. Have they won a game since he returned?

 

[Strenuus]

Re: Fixing the Blazers Part 1

At this point, I'd be okay trading him... his stock won't be any higher.

#unpopularopinion

 

[BigGameDamian]

Re: Fixing the Blazers Part 1

Last I saw basketball is a team game. Aldridge really isn't playing any different than he was early in the season when the Blazers where hot. Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith always warned us about jump shooting teams. They also said the Blazers would slip as the season went on. I don't think Aldridge is the only one to blame here. Part two better be about Stotts or Lillard.

 

[TBpup]

Re: Fixing the Blazers Part 1

Aldridge continues to regress and become a less and less efficient shooter every season lately. Sadly, he is becoming a volume, shooter who is not converting very well from an effective FG% rate at all.

There was an article done earlier in the year pointing out this exact thing but the writer took a lot of flak for it from this and other forums. It turns out as the season goes on, that particular take is becoming more and more true.

LaMarcus needs to get to the basket more and spend more time in the deep post. Fadeaway jumpers as the season goes on and the legs get tired are just not a dependable shot.

 

[BigGameDamian]

Re: Fixing the Blazers Part 1

Aldridge continues to regress and become a less and less efficient shooter every season lately. Sadly, he is becoming a volume, shooter who is not converting very well from an effective FG% rate at all.

There was an article done earlier in the year pointing out this exact thing but the writer took a lot of flak for it from this and other forums. It turns out as the season goes on, that particular take is becoming more and more true.

LaMarcus needs to get to the basket more and spend more time in the deep post. Fadeaway jumpers as the season goes on and the legs get tired are just not a dependable shot.

The only reason in the fans eyes as to Aldriidge regressing is because we didn't win the game.

 

[jlprk]

Re: Fixing the Blazers Part 1

Cmeese is the new poster who, every night he posts, PapaG tries to insult. Cmeese tired of the harrassment and left, but returned a month later. Where's PapaG? Did he accidentally miss Cmeese's outstanding post this time?

We may be the official forum of the Blazers but that doesn't mean the players read anything posted here.

Oh, you'll have to do. Cmeese didn't infer that they do.

 

[jlprk]

Re: Fixing the Blazers Part 1

Our best player refuses to play his position, PF, because he's a natural C. His bad attitude sets an example to other big men like Batum and Leonard to play soft. The mental core of the team is pudding.

 

[cmeese47]

Re: Fixing the Blazers Part 1

Last I saw basketball is a team game. Aldridge really isn't playing any different than he was early in the season when the Blazers where hot. Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith always warned us about jump shooting teams. They also said the Blazers would slip as the season went on. I don't think Aldridge is the only one to blame here. Part two better be about Stotts or Lillard.

When you are shooting 40% from 3 point range as a team it becomes easy to overlook a few inefficient shots. LA just had to score because Matthews and others had like a .650 TS% As that number started to regress Portland needed to become more efficient in other areas and they have not. The bench is still hit or miss, and the team defense is dreadful. Additionally as a defense we do not force turnovers or get to the line much on offense to really offset any lulls in shooting.

 

[cmeese47]

Re: Fixing the Blazers Part 1

Our best player refuses to play his position, PF, because he's a natural C. His bad attitude sets an example to other big men like Batum and Leonard to play soft. The mental core of the team is pudding.

I have for a long time asserted this, LA defensively is terrible as a PF, as a one on one post defender he does a good job against him man, which is why he was mentioned last year in that MIT article on defense. LA is in the top 10 in the league in FG% allowed when he is within 5 feet of his man, the problem is and was according to the article LA was near the bottom 20 of the survey in percentage of shots taken where he was within that 5 feet bubble. Furthermore, LA was one of the worst if not the worst PF in the league at defending the 3 allowing his man to shoot I believe around 45% from deep.

LA is athletic enough to be a rim protector and a good enough one on one defender especially in the post to play center defensively in this league. Let him call himself whatever he wants but the point is he should act more like Duncan on defense. Play the post and protect the paint while letting someone else run around on defense. Functionally, Duncan is an offensive PF and a Defensive C and it works for him, whether Duncan insists on being labeled a PF or not he willing plays the spot he is needed. Personally, I like Lopez and think he has been great for this team but replacing him with someone like a Taj Gibson would probably improve the defense should LA be willing to guard the post. Gibson is a much better pick and roll defender than LA and a little better than Lopez he works hard to cover the three point line to the post and is a pretty solid shot blocker.

Getting him to replace Leonard and Freeland on the bench without giving up Lopez would be ideal but I am not convinced Chicago is ready to part with him.

 

[cmeese47]

Re: Fixing the Blazers Part 1

Last I saw basketball is a team game. Aldridge really isn't playing any different than he was early in the season when the Blazers where hot. Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith always warned us about jump shooting teams. They also said the Blazers would slip as the season went on. I don't think Aldridge is the only one to blame here. Part two better be about Stotts or Lillard.

Hey man if you want to help out or write a part on either of them that would be awesome. I was planning on adding a piece about Batum next, partial spoiler I have some positive things to say about him, which has not exactly been my MO as it relates to him in the past.

 

[cmeese47]

Re: Fixing the Blazers Part 1

At this point, I'd be okay trading him... his stock won't be any higher.

#unpopularopinion

Trading him is not really the answer as it would be hard to see a legit return on investment. The onus has to be on LA to make adjustments, I believe the three point shot would be the most beneficial for him and the team. I also believe LA has to make the transition to Center at least defensively, his numbers are so much better from that spot. His PER is 1.5 points higher as a C and his PER against is 2 points lower as a C.

 

[blue9]

Re: Fixing the Blazers Part 1

At this point, I'd be okay trading him... his stock won't be any higher.

#unpopularopinion

#oneofus

 

[cmeese47]

Re: Fixing the Blazers Part 1

If LA continues to put in work during the off-season and add to his game he is a worthy building block for this franchise. He stepped up his rebounding this year, which was important and if he can improve his defensive rotations or accept a different defensive role in the off-season the team will be much better off. He especially needs to develop a three point shot if he is going to continue to be so perimeter oriented.

 

[cmeese47]

Fixing the Blazers Part II

Part II- Utilizing Nicolas Batum

Poor Nicolas Batum, the guy just cannot catch a break. Under Nate, Batum was asked to be a 3 and D guy, work hard on defense and stand in the corner for spacing. Batum was actually pretty efficient in that role, but it was obvious to anyone who watched the Blazers that he had more in him than what Nate was getting out of him. In Stotts’ system, Batum has been asked to be more a facilitator playing a much more all around style of basketball. To his credit, Batum has taken to the role becoming a triple double threat and averaging over 5 assists per contest. Unfortunately, this new style of ball has hurt Batum as much as it has helped him.

Nicolas needs to be more aggressive looking for his shot. He should be shooting around 15 times a game. Batum by aggressively looking for his shot will make his life as a secondary ball handler much easier, by attempting more shots Batum’s man will be forced to play up on him allowing Batum a better chance to beat the defender off the dribble, and it will pull his man out of the passing lane, making it easier for Batum to get the ball inside. Additionally, by shooting more Batum will feel less pressure to be the facilitator and that should cut down on several errant pass turnovers that Batum has become known for. Without the ball, Batum would be smart to make hard aggressive cuts to the basket; a few highlight worthy ally oops will back off his defender allowing Batum more open looks from the 3 point line. Portland should run hard double screens for Matthews and Batum both along the baseline. This should provide each additional opportunities to catch and shoot uncontested corner threes. Additionally, the extra movement will pull focus off of LA and Lopez, potentially allowing each a better shot at establishing position or cutting back door for lay ups or alley oops.

Defensively, Stotts has done a pretty good job with Batum. Nicolas like LA struggles in team defense, he rotates late and then struggles to get back and close out on his man. In addition, when Batum plays off the ball he tends to fall asleep defensively at times becoming lazy and giving up some easy buckets. With his length and agility Batum is ideal for guarding the ball handler. Furthermore, Batum’s finesse style defense is much better suited for guarding SG and PG’s than it is for him guarding more physical SF’s. When Batum is not guarding the ball, allowing him to be more aggressive defensively would be beneficial with a wingspan of 7’3”-7’4” Batum is the perfect candidate to jump passing lanes. Portland needs to force more turnovers per game and letting Batum play a free safety style position off the ball might help the team achieve that.

Nicolas Batum is the kind of well rounded player you can build around. The guy can do a little of everything on the court and for the most part he can do it well. He just needs to find the right balance in his game and when he does Portland should have a 3rd player worth all-star consideration.

 

[Blazinaway]

Re: Fixing the Blazers Part 1

#oneofus

well IMO we need to make a decision on him this summer if we want to trade him and get some good value back, we need to ask if in 16 months when he turns 30 if he is worth the max contract he will want, here are the likely numbers to think about:

2015/16 - $17,206,450
2016/17 - $18,496,934
2017/18 - $19,787,418
2018/19 - $21,077,902

4 year - 76.5 million

 

[blue9]

Re: Fixing the Blazers Part 1

2015/16 - $17,206,450
2016/17 - $18,496,934
2017/18 - $19,787,418
2018/19 - $21,077,902

4 year - 76.5 million

He won't be worth any of those salaries in any of those years. That money would be better spent on two players (maybe even three!), rather than one. OR spend it on a player who deserves that sort of money - but that'd be such a long shot to land that sort of player.

 

[Blazinaway]

Re: Fixing the Blazers Part 1

He won't be worth any of those salaries in any of those years. That money would be better spent on two players (maybe even three!), rather than one. OR spend it on a player who deserves that sort of money - but that'd be such a long shot to land that sort of player.

well I think this is certainly a huge part of this discussion, will a 30-33 year old LMA be worth the money shown? or is it better to trade him, get value, and move on?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Good stuff, cmeese. If I weren't on my phone, I'd rep you for this thread.

 

[cmeese47]

Will LA be worth that money in 4 years I am not sure, his style of play certainly seems to suggest that he can and should continue to be a 20 and 10 player in 4 years. I believe that if he adds a three point shot it will make that level far more sustainable. Additionally, the question is not whether LA will be worth 21 million as that amount is pretty much excessive for everyone not Durant and Lebron. The question is will Paul Allen be willing to pay the money it will cost to keep quality talent around LA for that 4 year window.

 

[blue9]

The question is will Paul Allen be willing to pay the money it will cost to keep quality talent around LA for that 4 year window.

The question goes beyond that: will we be able to add additional talent around LMA while paying him $18M+? We won't be able to sign free agents. The only way we'll be able to change the roster is through trades. That means trading Lillard, Wes, Nic or Lopez OR hoping that CJ, Lenoard, or Robinson make significant improvements so they have trade value. Trading any of our starters would most likely be a lateral trade, IMO. So then it all comes down to CJ/Leonard/Robinson improving to the point where they turn us into a contender or become valuable enough to trade for someone who'll make us a contender.
Essentially, I don't think there's any way to turn a roster built around LMA into a contender. He's too inefficient and takes up too much of the salary cap.

 

[cmeese47]

The question goes beyond that: will we be able to add additional talent around LMA while paying him $18M+? We won't be able to sign free agents. The only way we'll be able to change the roster is through trades. That means trading Lillard, Wes, Nic or Lopez OR hoping that CJ, Lenoard, or Robinson make significant improvements so they have trade value. Trading any of our starters would most likely be a lateral trade, IMO. So then it all comes down to CJ/Leonard/Robinson improving to the point where they turn us into a contender or become valuable enough to trade for someone who'll make us a contender.
Essentially, I don't think there's any way to turn a roster built around LMA into a contender. He's too inefficient and takes up too much of the salary cap.

Basically the plan would come down to 2015, Portland has only 12.8 million in guaranteed money tied up that summer with Batum and Crabbe being under contract. The team will exercise its option on Lillard at 4.2 million bumping them up to 17. Resigning LA only puts them up to 34, that leaves them with what will be likely 30 million in cap space at that time to add some pieces or keep what they got. Key decisions will need to be made about Lopez, Matthews, Robinson and Leonard before the end of next season.

Things become a lot easier if McCollum and Robinson develop that would give Portland a couple additional cheap contracts to work with and some depth. A core of Lillard, McCollum, Batum, Aldridge, Robinson and someone like Marc Gasol added in free agency would provide a solid foundation. Especially if Portland could find away to get someone like Lance Stephenson this summer.

 

[BigGameDamian]

So why wasn't this thread made earlyer in the season? Maybe it's just because we where winning. Is the team really playing that much different?

 

[rasheedfan2005]

So why wasn't this thread made earlyer in the season? Maybe it's just because we where winning. Is the team really playing that much different?

Because trolls need a losing streak as ammo

 

[cmeese47]

So why wasn't this thread made earlyer in the season? Maybe it's just because we where winning. Is the team really playing that much different?

It is hard for people whether it be players or fans to accept advice when things are going well. Honestly, at the time I was trying to enjoy the team exceeding expectations but I was always cautious the team needed to make adjustments. Come on I was so concerned with the way this team defends that I suggested trading my two favorite Blazers in Lillard and Matthews for Conley and Allen. At a certain time just making the playoffs is no longer enough. This year getting there is an important step but the team will need to make some serious adjustments this summer in order to make sure they can take the next step towards winning a title.

 

[rasheedfan2005]

Perhaps we could trade our entire team for Miami's entire team, fire stotts and hire spoulstra.

Why Miami does it: because it helps them clear cap space

Why blazers do it: so they can make a title run.