Forensic Fan, Preseason Game One, 10/5/15 vs SAC

[BrianFromWA]

Forensic Fan Preseason Game 1, POR vs. SAC, 10/5/2015

From the top: Man, it’s good to be back, but I feel rusty. After devouring almost every word written by the Blazers I could come across this summer (again, hat tip to guys like Casey and Quick for some solid work this preseason), it’s good to look at some real stats and start another season of Forensic Fan.

I’ve been told that with a slightly newer audience, there are some that don’t quite get what Forensic Fan is or why I do it. To recap, this is a thing I do for fun. It started in 2013 when I was in Afghanistan and had no access to Blazers content other than box scores and basketball-reference.com. So I tried doing a reconstruction of what could have happened using nothing but what I could find there and what might be gleaned from it. Now that I’m back here (out with a season-ending deployment), it’ll be even tougher, so I may go through and pull out some game thread quotes. This isn’t “what I saw from Press Row”; check out SlyPokerDog’s “Dog in the Arena” for that kind of analysis. It’s not a post-game recap. You will get no “eye test” analysis. It’s (hopefully) another way of digging out what happened to our team on any given night. Enjoy, Rip City.

Player of the Game: Dame had a tidy 17 points in 24 minutes, Leonard went for 14 and 8, but the inaugural preseason Player of the Game award goes to Noah Vonleh (first of many?!), who collected 12 points and 11 rebounds (9 offensive!!1!) for the first double-double of the year.

Monster Games : Noah’s 12/11 was the only double-double, and with the minutes spread, really the only notable one.

Points Per Shot (5 shot minimum, or as some like to call it, “Rice’s Pregame Warmup”): At 42%, no one was what we in the bizness call “efficient”…no one, that is, except for Mo’ Money Harkless. Showing off impressive 3pt range, he had 14 points on 6 FGA, for a pretty stellar 2.5 points per shot. It could have been much better, had he not blown 4 free throws. But it’s preseason for everyone, and we should keep playing him and seeing if he can do good things more and bad things less. Congratulations, Mo!

Dishonorable Mention? Well, I’ll just leave this right here.

I think I'm going to start calling CJ "Shooter McCollum". He eats pieces of shit like you for breakfast... And takes lots of shots.

But whatever sickness he had was contagious. Patty Baseball and Phil “Not My Dad” Pressey also missed over 75% of their shots (3-15 combined). Um, yeah.



Coin Ratio: 24 assists on 99 shots means that the team as a whole passed around a quarter’s worth of CR, and it was spread pretty evenly. Dame had 3 assists on 15 shots (20 cents), CJ had 4 on 11 shots (36 cents), Pat had 3 on 7 shots, and Frazier had 3 on 6 for the 50 cents and today’s award. Honorable mention to the centers, as Plumlee and Leonard combined for 5 assisteses. Kind of tough to get a bunch of assists when the team shoots 42%, but it looks as if the ball was being moved, which actually makes me feel really good about how well the team is gelling already.

Bench
Good opportunity to see most of the new faces get some run. The aforementioned Harkless was steady and seemed to show some previously unheard-of range, and it seems as if the ball got spread around pretty well, with 7 bench players taking more than 6 shots. One thing that I learned, however…probably not a good thing to go with a Frazier/Pressey/Connaughton/OmariJ/Vonleh overtime lineup. And especially if you’re not going to “go Rick Moranis” by inserting Montero for Vonleh.

Just sayin’.


JinxSpeed Mini-Thread of the Game: Eric, already in midseason form…

(11:03pm) We're doing this without Aminu. We're so good.

(11:03pm) Shit Lillard rolled his ankle

(11:30pm) Leonard goes down! NOOOOOOOOOO!

Questions for the Group:
1. On a scale of "Ho hum, just preseason" to "OMG!11! I was totally wrong!", how did tonight's action change any of your opinions on the team?
2. If you had to guess tonight, who's starting at the 2/3/4 Opening Night?
3. Can shooting be taught to a not-good shooter over an offseason?

No joy for the Blazers tonight. But at least we didn’t lose to Fenerbahce Ulker (I could’ve probably spelled that Fenesdgfalsj Ulkadkf and Rasta would’ve most likely been the only one to notice). Worst team in the league, my foot!

It may be the first real fake game of the year, but you guys are in fine midseason form, I see. From bitching and moaning to impressed and pumped. You bipolar soccer moms.

As always, let me know what you like and don't like and it will likely be incorporated. Suggestions always welcome. Opinions and comments below. See you Thursday night for the Warriors!

 

[rasheedfan2005]

Jinxspeed jinx watcher lolol

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Quick thoughts:

Frazier and Harkless really surprised me with their shooting last night, but since it was only one game...and it was the Kings...I reserve judgment until a larger sample size can be examined.

The defense was quite strong for the first three quarters...you know, when we were actually trying.

This team would drive the Schonz crazy. You've got. To make. Your free throws!

Ed Davis needs to thicken up if he's ever going to be more than a backup on a decent team.

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

I liked that Stotts had scrubs and Vonleh out there late in the game and OT. The Kings still had several key players in the game. I'm trying to figure out in Stotts was trying to tank (yo, Terry, losing in the preseason doesn't get you closer to the #1 pick) or develop/challenge a guy like Vonleh, but I'll go with the latter. I like that Terry was trying to teach and evaluate, rather than trying to win.

 

[THE HCP]

Deep Thoughts By The HCP

This game is EXACTLY how this season will go FAMS. We will have flashes of brilliance and some exciting plays along the way.......BUT........ at some point in a :20 timeout, somebody on the other team will let everybody else know that THEY are the ones that are supposed to win this game and will. #StandingByMy20WinPredictionFAMS

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Deep Thoughts By The HCP

This game is EXACTLY how this season will go FAMS. We will have flashes of brilliance and some exciting plays along the way.......BUT........ at some point in a :20 timeout, somebody on the other team will let everybody else know that THEY are the ones that are supposed to win this game and will. #StandingByMy20WinPredictionFAMS

You do not want to make an enemy out of me.

- Sly P Dog

 

[Reep]

Good Review. Some takes and advice to players:

Harkless: you are one of my new favorites. Keep it up. BUT, when you start to drive and the defender backs off by >6 feet, stop and take the jumper. Seemed like once he is determined to drive nothing stops him. He had the ball wide open on the three a couple times with his defender sagging and drove anyway. Perfect time to just up and take the three. Loved his handle, defense and aggressiveness. I think with experience he could be close to what we all wanted in Nic.

CJ: Please, please, please, look for open teammates when you penetrate. Can't count how many times CJ pushed all the way for an open shot when a big was sitting open (because his man was coming to CJ) and got no love. Would have been a few easy assists and baskets, but ended up as tough misses.

Big White Guys: loved the passing. Loved it. Loved both of you in the high post looking for cutters.

Davis: take a lesson from Kersey and work on that mid-range jumper. I love your effort and defense and want to see you on the court more.

Frazier: I'm not ready to proclaim you as a shooter, but if you can really hit that shot and have been working on it, then you have a place on this team.

Plumlee and Davis: I think this combo can actually work for short minutes together. Mason in the high post and Davis setting picks and rolling.

Hands: Great hands by everyone the whole game. Can't remember seeing so many forced turnovers, like . . . ever.

 

[Reep]

Deep Thoughts By The HCP

This game is EXACTLY how this season will go FAMS. We will have flashes of brilliance and some exciting plays along the way.......BUT........ at some point in a :20 timeout, somebody on the other team will let everybody else know that THEY are the ones that are supposed to win this game and will. #StandingByMy20WinPredictionFAMS

Possibly. A repeat of what some lazy writers said too. But, neither you nor they pointed out that it was the end of the bench that lost the game. No doubt if the starters would have been in this would have come out as a win and you would have no point at all. There will be games this season where they do great for three quarters and blow the fourth, but I don't think it will be as many as some think.

Not sure why Stotts left the dregs in, but it could have been for two reasons. One, to obviously get PT for guys who won't get to see much in the future. Two, maybe he liked what his rotation guys did so much that he wanted to take them out on the high, to keep the confidence flowing.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

It's preseason; you play the bench to avoid rolling more ankles on players worth more than you'll make in a lifetime as head coach.

I like the chemistry our first 8 players had; San Diego had a positive effect!

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Possibly. A repeat of what some lazy writers said too. But, neither you nor they pointed out that it was the end of the bench that lost the game. No doubt if the starters would have been in this would have come out as a win and you would have no point at all. There will be games this season where they do great for three quarters and blow the fourth, but I don't think it will be as many as some think.

Not sure why Stotts left the dregs in, but it could have been for two reasons. One, to obviously get PT for guys who won't get to see much in the future. Two, maybe he liked what his rotation guys did so much that he wanted to take them out on the high, to keep the confidence flowing.

Or three, because he didn't want any of the important players on the floor risking injury in a game that meant nothing, against a team that obviously wanted to win the meaningless game a lot more than we did, when we had already clearly demonstrated our team's superiority.

 

[THE HCP]

Ya, didn't like seeing 3 rolled ankles last night, thats for sure.

 

[Reep]

Or three, because he didn't want any of the important players on the floor risking injury in a game that meant nothing, against a team that obviously wanted to win the meaningless game a lot more than we did, when we had already clearly demonstrated our team's superiority.

True. One of the few "losses" that I came away feeling really good about. Loved all the effort on defense and some nifty passing. It may be rough for a while, but you can see some real potential on both ends of the court once these guys get more comfortable with each other. Starting SF battle is going to be interesting. Harkless made a big case for minutes in this game.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Good Review. Some takes and advice to players:
Harkless: you are one of my new favorites. Keep it up. BUT, when you start to drive and the defender backs off by >6 feet, stop and take the jumper. Seemed like once he is determined to drive nothing stops him. He had the ball wide open on the three a couple times with his defender sagging and drove anyway. Perfect time to just up and take the three. Loved his handle, defense and aggressiveness. I think with experience he could be close to what we all wanted in Nic.

It might have something to do with his awareness that he shoots a lifetime 27.6% between 3 and 23 feet. I wish I was joking about that.

Big White Guys: loved the passing. Loved it. Loved both of you in the high post looking for cutters.

What are these men running down the lane toward the basket that you speak of?

Hands: Great hands by everyone the whole game. Can't remember seeing so many forced turnovers, like . . . ever.

Even though Coach Stotts says that the defensive principles won't change, this BlazersEdge article does a great job running down how some turnover-forcing things can change even with similar principles in place with some minor tweaks.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Ya, didn't like seeing 3 rolled ankles last night, thats for sure.

I'm by no means a physical therapist, but I was under the impression that after a player has been playing a while, then sitting for a long time, it's tougher on the body to bring them in cold off the bench again.

 

[illmatic99]

CJ: Please, please, please, look for open teammates when you penetrate. Can't count how many times CJ pushed all the way for an open shot when a big was sitting open (because his man was coming to CJ) and got no love. Would have been a few easy assists and baskets, but ended up as tough misses.

This.

Working out with Nash is one thing, but that scorers mentality is tough to shake.

 

[Reep]

What are these men running down the lane toward the basket that you speak of?

Green font? Not sure.

But, I loved the cross-key pass from Meyers to a cutting Dame; and the drop off from Plumlee to a wide open Crabbe was beautiful. I think Crabbe was even surprised how open he was.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Green font? Not sure.

But, I loved the cross-key pass from Meyers to a cutting Dame; and the drop off from Plumlee to a wide open Crabbe was beautiful. I think Crabbe was even surprised how open he was.

Oh yes, that Leonard-Lillard pass was beautiful, as was his alright of hand with the ball preceding that pass.

Leonard's ball handling impressed me last night.

 

[BlazerBeav]

Kept having to remind myself that Aminu was missing, and that his return will mean no Crabbe. I just can't take him anymore.

 

[Reep]

Kept having to remind myself that Aminu was missing, and that his return will mean no Crabbe. I just can't take him anymore.

I thought Crabbe did a couple of nice things. He just doesn't seem like a starter, and with Harkless and Henderson (at some point), maybe not a rotation player.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Oh yes, that Leonard-Lillard pass was beautiful, as was his alright of hand with the ball preceding that pass.

Leonard's ball handling impressed me last night.

A few of us (maybe you included) said last year that Meyers should handle in-bound duties because he was sometimes the best passer on the court. I still think that's true, oftentimes he is the best passer on the court. I'm hoping by the time he's 27, he's expanded that part of his game, because he's got potential there.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Kept having to remind myself that Aminu was missing, and that his return will mean no Crabbe. I just can't take him anymore.

Yeah Crabbe tries too hard, like Martell did back in the day.

 

[0-Our!]

I liked that Stotts had scrubs and Vonleh out there late in the game and OT. The Kings still had several key players in the game. I'm trying to figure out in Stotts was trying to tank (yo, Terry, losing in the preseason doesn't get you closer to the #1 pick) or develop/challenge a guy like Vonleh, but I'll go with the latter. I like that Terry was trying to teach and evaluate, rather than trying to win.

I'm all for the learnin'! Terry... teach the hell outta these guys! As we all know, preseason wins/losses don't count so you'll see, they'll do, & allow a lot of things vs. the reg. season; take advantage of things while they don't count.

 

[Reep]

Some have criticized Leonard for trying to do too much. I'm glad he is trying. This is exactly the time of year to work on those things. I don't want to see him limited to standing behind the three point line waiting. I love that he is working on attacking the close outs and either taking a nice jumper, or even better moving in and creating chaos and looking for cutters. If he can handle the ball reasonably then use that skill to improve the shot.

In a few years when these guys get very comfortable with each other, it could be a very tough team to defend because there would be no one person to shut down.

 

[tester551]

I'm surprised that no one has really mentioned two improvements that I saw with Dame.

1) I thought his defensive effort was much improved. Still not a "good" defender, but not nearly as bad as he use to be.
2) On the P&R, Dame is now keeping the defender on his back & going side to side instead of always going straight to the rim. It's very reminiscent of what CP3 does. I think this is going to allow his offensive game to expand again this year.

 

[Reep]

I'm surprised that no one has really mentioned two improvements that I saw with Dame.

1) I thought his defensive effort was much improved. Still not a "good" defender, but not nearly as bad as he use to be.
2) On the P&R, Dame is now keeping the defender on his back & going side to side instead of always going straight to the rim. It's very reminiscent of what CP3 does. I think this is going to allow his offensive game to expand again this year.

The team defense was so good it was hard to really tell how Dame was doing. But, with all the hands poking around it sure looked like it won't be as much of an issue this year. Whether it is Dame improving, or better help defense, or both doesn't really matter.

 

[0-Our!]

Questions for the Group:
1. On a scale of "Ho hum, just preseason" to "OMG!11! I was totally wrong!", how did tonight's action change any of your opinions on the team?
2. If you had to guess tonight, who's starting at the 2/3/4 Opening Night?
3. Can shooting be taught to a not-good shooter over an offseason?

1. I'll say "ho hum" for most of the stats bc it's preseason, we all know u can't read too much into them; although putting some of the stats w/ watching, some ARE legit & I am excited For "OMG!..." I wouldn't go this far but I was pleasantly surprised by Frazier's play (he played well the whole game) & Conny (in different thread I said why ).

2. I may be the only 1 that feels/thinks this way (& I'm well aware it's still early) but I think Harkless @ the 2 & Aminu @ the 3 w/ Henderson coming off the bench (we need some good scoring from the bench & I think he'd be more valuable/work better here). I know Harkless is a 3 but I believe he can effectively play the 2 & think of him there w/ his size/ matchup problems he'd create for the opposition!

3. If u r referring to Conny... I say yes, absolutely (not all guys apply).

 

[Reep]

2. I may be the only 1 that feels/thinks this way (& I'm well aware it's still early) but I think Harkless @ the 2 & Aminu @ the 3 w/ Henderson coming off the bench (we need some good scoring from the bench & I think he'd be more valuable/work better here). I know Harkless is a 3 but I believe he can effectively play the 2 & think of him

I don't think this will happen, but I am totally with you on this. The havoc caused by having Harkless and Aminu on the wings would be fantastic to watch. Harkless isn't all the way there yet, but he has the defense and handles and apparently the shot to be able to cover the 2. He actually did play the 2 in Orlando in a high % of his minutes.

That lineup would also leave CJ, Henderson and Vonleh coming off the bench, which should be plenty of firepower in reserve.

 

[riverman]

I think rookie PC is having a Meyers like rookie debut...just looks like he's not going to make it, but given some time and the fact he's at the end of the bench..I guess he could get to the point where the game slows down..difference between him and Luke Babbitt...Babbitt shot better

 

[BlazerCaravan]

The team defense was so good it was hard to really tell how Dame was doing. But, with all the hands poking around it sure looked like it won't be as much of an issue this year. Whether it is Dame improving, or better help defense, or both doesn't really matter.

This was huge for the footage I saw. The defense was shockingly good, which is exactly what you need to win games when you're not sure where your points are going to come from.

I don't know if it'll last once teams scout us, but I was really impressed by the defensive philosophy.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Babbitt shot better

Eventually he did; remember when we always heard "Babbitt shoots so good in practice, honest!" after every brick?