Forum Confidence vote

[magnifier661]

So now that the Senate and White House are Democrat and the House majority is Republican. How confident are you that the country fiscal strength will turn around?

 

[DaLincolnJones]

my only hope is the with no agenda to get re elected in hisway, he will take a page from clintons book and swing to th ecenter..but, I see oboma as being too smug to ever believe that he could be on the wrong path.

 

[magnifier661]

my only hope is the with no agenda to get re elected in hisway, he will take a page from clintons book and swing to th ecenter..but, I see oboma as being too smug to ever believe that he could be on the wrong path.

Obama better play the first two years well or he will probably lose the Senate.

 

[bluefrog]

You need another option:

"Give it time... the markets will figure it out."

I think things will improve but not because of Obama's policies.

 

[santeesioux]

Middle one, although i would have voted that way even if Romney won.

 

[DaLincolnJones]

Obama better play the first two years well or he will probably lose the Senate.

he will demonize them all as being the problem...fuckin guy is teflon with the media in his pocket

 

[magnifier661]

You need another option:

"Give it time... the markets will figure it out."

I think things will improve but not because of Obama's policies.

I disagree. Obama's policies will directly effect the market. His first two years in office; he's gotta pull the parties together. If there is a grid-lock, then we are fucked. Hopefully Obama learns from Clinton and rides his coattails.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Whether or not you think Obama has some great ideas, I have very little confidence that people like Patty Murray and her co-workers can figure out how to pass a budget that is even close to balanced.

For the record, I think taxes should be raised (minorly) on everyone. I think spending cuts should be across the board. I don't have a fundamental problem with that 3T compromise Denny and others have been talking about. But, aside from that one article that came out about "dark donors", I'm firmly of the belief that this administration is much more firmly in the hands of special interests (seniors and environmentalists, to name two) than the Bush years were with Halliburton and big business.

I would really like for it to turn out ok, but the spending without generating that's been going on for a decade (ramped up significantly in the last 4 years) is not sustainable, and those who need to be cut won't let it happen.

 

[magnifier661]

Whether or not you think Obama has some great ideas, I have very little confidence that people like Patty Murray and her co-workers can figure out how to pass a budget that is even close to balanced.

For the record, I think taxes should be raised (minorly) on everyone. I think spending cuts should be across the board. I don't have a fundamental problem with that 3T compromise Denny and others have been talking about. But, aside from that one article that came out about "dark donors", I'm firmly of the belief that this administration is much more firmly in the hands of special interests (seniors and environmentalists, to name two) than the Bush years were with Halliburton and big business.

I would really like for it to turn out ok, but the spending without generating that's been going on for a decade (ramped up significantly in the last 4 years) is not sustainable, and those who need to be cut won't let it happen.

The fiasco will be the stalemate in the House. They are truly the only Republican vote. It will take a very bi-partisan policy in order for anything to pass.

 

[Denny Crane]

You need another option:

"Give it time... the markets will figure it out."

I think things will improve but not because of Obama's policies.

Markets can't figure things out if the market is ridiculously distorted. The markets are ridiculously distorted.

As for Obama's policies, there's one right off the bat that absolutely hurts our chances to improve:

http://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Crowding+Out

Crowding Out

A situation in which a government, especially the U.S. Government, borrows so much money that it discourages lending to private businesses. Crowding out generally occurs because lenders prefer the government as a borrower because it is much less risky and the government is able to pay any interest rate. Thus, when the government is borrowing heavily and lenders have only a finite amount they can lend, it may crowd out private borrowers.

Farlex Financial Dictionary. © 2012 Farlex, Inc. All Rights Reserved

(I'd add that the govt. can twist peoples' arms to "encourage" them to load the govt. money. Something about power to write tax code.)

 

[magnifier661]

Markets can't figure things out if the market is ridiculously distorted. The markets are ridiculously distorted.

As for Obama's policies, there's one right off the bat that absolutely hurts our chances to improve:

http://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Crowding+Out

Crowding Out

A situation in which a government, especially the U.S. Government, borrows so much money that it discourages lending to private businesses. Crowding out generally occurs because lenders prefer the government as a borrower because it is much less risky and the government is able to pay any interest rate. Thus, when the government is borrowing heavily and lenders have only a finite amount they can lend, it may crowd out private borrowers.

Farlex Financial Dictionary. © 2012 Farlex, Inc. All Rights Reserved

(I'd add that the govt. can twist peoples' arms to "encourage" them to load the govt. money. Something about power to write tax code.)

Really good information. Thanks for sharing.

 

[Denny Crane]

My post should read 'encourage them to LOAN the govt. money'

 

[magnifier661]

My post should read 'encourage them to LOAN the govt. money'

"leveraged investing" may take the biggest hit, IMO. I forsee housing to have the biggest drop. The stock market can still have money made, from puts and calls. But housing is greatly effected by the "general opinion of the union". A lot of pricing is based on emotional factors.

 

[Denny Crane]

Well, factories can't as easily borrow to buy new plant equipment either.

Small businesses suffer as well, if they can even get off the ground.

 

[ABM]

"leveraged investing" may take the biggest hit, IMO.

Very good point. That's what the owners of my company are dealing with. I've heard it said by more than a few people that the money is out there....just not the economic confidence (that is, enough to lay out the financial risks) in the Obama administration.

 

[magnifier661]

Small Businesses will abolsutely suffer. They've been suffering the entire term. There is no incentive for a small business owner with the current policies.

 

[magnifier661]

Very good point. That's what the owners of my company are dealing with. I've heard it said by more than a few people that the money is out there....just not the economic confidence (that is, enough to lay out the financial risks) in the Obama administration.

That's the key issue. The limitations and qualifications for any type of leveraged investments goes way up. Doesn't matter how much Obama plans on reducing the interest rate; the banks won't lend unless someone has the highest of qualifications. The poor middle class stand zero chance of purchasing homes and possibly more foreclosers will incur.

 

[barfo]

"leveraged investing" may take the biggest hit, IMO. I forsee housing to have the biggest drop. The stock market can still have money made, from puts and calls. But housing is greatly effected by the "general opinion of the union". A lot of pricing is based on emotional factors.

So, you are basically saying that you are the problem. You, and other nattering nabobs of negativism, are what's dragging us down.

Personally, I think things are going to be fine. Things won't get a lot better quickly, but they will gradually get better.

barfo

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

I am not a financial expert or an economist, but I think it's safe to say that at some point in time we will no longer be able to stay solvent under the strain of the national debt, deficit spending and runnaway entitlemnt programs and increasing taxes will not provide the solution. I also believe margin will call in less than 25 years and that Obama had a chance to really help find solutions to all those problems and instead magnified them more than the last 4 adminitrations together. I believe that when margin calls, we will have to default on all our debt to nations, companies and individual investors and that it will be an economis meltdown of sorts with high inflation. I also think both sides will place the blame squarely on the other.

 

[Denny Crane]

So, you are basically saying that you are the problem. You, and other nattering nabobs of negativism, are what's dragging us down.

Personally, I think things are going to be fine. Things won't get a lot better quickly, but they will gradually get better.

barfo

I'd call you a nabob, but you're not one.

 

[magnifier661]

So, you are basically saying that you are the problem. You, and other nattering nabobs of negativism, are what's dragging us down.

Personally, I think things are going to be fine. Things won't get a lot better quickly, but they will gradually get better.

barfo

Not if the margin calls ask for their money.

 

[DaLincolnJones]

this is telling, 20 vote in and 65% range in the not confident to doom

 

[MARIS61]

Since we have basically the same group of corrupt incumbent in the senate and house, I expect progress will remain as it has been. Like pulling teeth.

 

[maxiep]

We're done. We just had our "recovery" and we're headed for another recession. Actually, we're going to experience stagflation.

 

[mobes23]

Markets can't figure things out if the market is ridiculously distorted. The markets are ridiculously distorted.

I agree -- the markets make very little sense, other than I think big funds/hedge funds are propping it up somehow.

 

[DaLincolnJones]

I agree -- the markets make very little sense, other than I think big funds/hedge funds are propping it up somehow.

between the trillions of dollars the gov is printing and all of the money tossed around from this past election, that has kept things somewhat active

take away all the bucks spent on the election...factor the inflation

gonna be a tough few years

 

[Denny Crane]

I agree -- the markets make very little sense, other than I think big funds/hedge funds are propping it up somehow.

I think you have a choice to park your idle cash in a bank account that loses money over time because the interest rate is less than inflation, or something slightly less risky like blue chip stocks.