Game Thread GAME# 32: BLAZERS @ JAZZ - DECEMBER 26, 2019 - THURSDAY, 7:30 PM, TNT

[kjironman1]

A CJ for Jrue Holiday swap would fix a lot of Portland’s issues right now. But it’s too obvious for Olshey to see.

So he's supposed to just get on the horn and make that happen right? Pelicans can just do what they are told! Langdon doesn't really need to have any say here right?
Heck why don't we just send em Whiteside and say "That's what yer takin dude!" That way we can have em both!

 

[James lamphear]

the thing about those three's is that has been a trend ever since Stotts arrived. He's had some weird hybrid of the ICE defense where the big man hedges toward the paint instead of toward the ball at any screen or pick. It's been the same with Lopez and Aldridge; with Plumlee and Nurkic. Stotts has even said several times the goal is to bait teams into low-percentage mid-range shots. But a result has been lots of open three's. That's been going on since 2012, not just since Whiteside arrived. Obviously Whiteside doesn't have good perimeter close-out mobility. But it was also obvious that Donovan Mitchell had no fear at all about driving into Skal's interior defense.

This why we missing Zach Collins

 

[wizenheimer]

3pt percentage defense under Stotts:

3rd, 12th, 7th, 26th, 27th, 16th, 14th.

Top 1/3 - 2 seasons
Middle 1/3 - 3 seasons
Bottom 1/3 - 2 seasons

If you average those finishes (a rough, but imporper way to do it), they are 13-14th in the league on average.

That does not fit the board narrative that we are horrible at defending the 3. Looks pretty average to me. To me it's another example of the focus only being on the Blazers and therefore we think our issues are way worse than everyone elses.

I didn't say Portland was horrible at defending the three...I said the way their bigs defend the three's leave a lot of open three's as a result when the three is shot out of a screen or pick play on the ball by an opposing big. Besides that, IMO, you also can't simply base your gauge on the raw 3ptFG% of opponents. That's only part of the picture:

Portland is now 15th in the NBA in opponent 3 pt%. But they are 18th in opponent 3pt attempts & makes. That 2nd ranking needs to be better than the 1st one. That it's lower isn't good and it means they are giving up more points from the arc than their raw percentage implies

last season, they were 20th in the NBA in opponent 3pt% (not sure where you got 16th?), but they were 3rd in opponent attempts & 8th in opponent makes. That's the way you want those two numbers to inverse. It at least means that while their percentage is bad, they are denying a higher rate of attempts than most of the league...

....the thing is though, how much is Nurkic/Whiteside impacting this 2 year sample? and how much are Aminu, Harkless, Turner, and Curry impacting these numbers compared to the crappy perimeter defenders this season? Frankly, there's just been too much turnover in the roster to be able to peg one guy as primarily responsible for any one thing the Blazers are doing worse

Whiteside is leading the team, by substantial margins, in defensive rating, defensive winshares, and defensive box plus/minus, and he's doing it while mostly facing 1st unit offenses. He's the least of Portland's defensive problems
****************************************

in the Stotts era, ranking of opponent 3pt%/3pt FG's:

2012-13 - 3rd/6th
2013-14 - 11th/2nd
2014-15 - 6th/1st
2015-16 - 26th/15th
2016-17 - 27th/10th
2017-18 - 16th/7th
2018-19 - 20th/8th
2019-20 - 15th/18th

the first and most obvious takeaway: the combo of Wesley Matthews and Nic Batum was a really good pairing of perimeter defenders. But we kind of knew that didn't we? The massive downgrade in defense from Matthews to CJ is apparent (we also knew that), and while Batum wasn't significantly better than Harkless, he was still an upgrade. I think you also probably have to give Aldridge some credit for close-out ability on perimeter shots. Looking at those numbers, I think the Stotts perimeter defensive philosophy worked a lot better when he had Matthews and Batum

and Tince, I think your main observation is probably accurate: that being that Portland's 3 point defense hasn't been as bad as it seems. Made three's are really noticeable so the impression they leave when the Blazers are frustrating is probably heavier than the reality

if I was to just spitball a ranking of perimeter defensive importance, I'd rate it:

1) perimeter defensive talent
2) schemes
3) big men roles

sure there are other factors, but this is kind of what we're talking about...no?

 

[wizenheimer]

This why we missing Zach Collins

too simple a take in my view. Collins is a much better interior defender than he is a perimeter defender. His perimeter defense has been mediocre; worse, IIRC, is that he has accumulated a lot of his foul trouble when reacting to perimeter offense. He's not nearly as good as Aminu was defending the perimeter

a big downgrade in the defense has been going from a PF rotation of Aminu + Zach to Zach + Tolliver/Hezonja to Melo + Tolliver/Little/Hezonja

I know people want to believe that Zach is some massive missing ingredient. While Portland would be better with him, I don't believe he would have made that big a difference in their record right now. There is a lot more wrong with this team then just missing Zach

 

[Tince]

I didn't say Portland was horrible at defending the three...I said the way their bigs defend the three's leave a lot of open three's as a result when the three is shot out of a screen or pick play on the ball by an opposing big. Besides that, IMO, you also can't simply base your gauge on the raw 3ptFG% of opponents. That's only part of the picture:

Portland is now 15th in the NBA in opponent 3 pt%. But they are 18th in opponent 3pt attempts & makes. That 2nd ranking needs to be better than the 1st one. That it's lower isn't good and it means they are giving up more points from the arc than their raw percentage implies

last season, they were 20th in the NBA in opponent 3pt% (not sure where you got 16th?), but they were 3rd in opponent attempts & 8th in opponent makes. That's the way you want those two numbers to inverse. It at least means that while their percentage is bad, they are denying a higher rate of attempts than most of the league...

....the thing is though, how much is Nurkic/Whiteside impacting this 2 year sample? and how much are Aminu, Harkless, Turner, and Curry impacting these numbers compared to the crappy perimeter defenders this season? Frankly, there's just been too much turnover in the roster to be able to peg one guy as primarily responsible for any one thing the Blazers are doing worse

Whiteside is leading the team, by substantial margins, in defensive rating, defensive winshares, and defensive box plus/minus, and he's doing it while mostly facing 1st unit offenses. He's the least of Portland's defensive problems
****************************************

in the Stotts era, ranking of opponent 3pt%/3pt FG's:

2012-13 - 3rd/6th
2013-14 - 11th/2nd
2014-15 - 6th/1st
2015-16 - 26th/15th
2016-17 - 27th/10th
2017-18 - 16th/7th
2018-19 - 20th/8th
2019-20 - 15th/18th

the first and most obvious takeaway: the combo of Wesley Matthews and Nic Batum was a really good pairing of perimeter defenders. But we kind of knew that didn't we? The massive downgrade in defense from Matthews to CJ is apparent (we also knew that), and while Batum wasn't significantly better than Harkless, he was still an upgrade. I think you also probably have to give Aldridge some credit for close-out ability on perimeter shots. Looking at those numbers, I think the Stotts perimeter defensive philosophy worked a lot better when he had Matthews and Batum

and Tince, I think your main observation is probably accurate: that being that Portland's 3 point defense hasn't been as bad as it seems. Made three's are really noticeable so the impression they leave when the Blazers are frustrating is probably heavier than the reality

if I was to just spitball a ranking of perimeter defensive importance, I'd rate it:

1) perimeter defensive talent
2) schemes
3) big men roles

sure there are other factors, but this is kind of what we're talking about...no?

Great stuff, I love it! I agree with your rankings based off the information available. I also agree that Whiteside is easily a plus in terms of defensive contributions and it's not even close. Last night, we saw a situation where he was a liability in the PnR. I recall Dame putting him in this position when he was in Miami. It's a very tough ask to ask many bigs to defend out at 30ft, so I'm not blaming him.

My original point is that narrative on here is that we give up SO MANY wide open threes. The data says we give us less threes than most teams and at a percentage that is around average for the league.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

too simple a take in my view. Collins is a much better interior defender than he is a perimeter defender. His perimeter defense has been mediocre; worse, IIRC, is that he has accumulated a lot of his foul trouble when reacting to perimeter offense. He's not nearly as good as Aminu was defending the perimeter

a big downgrade in the defense has been going from a PF rotation of Aminu + Zach to Zach + Tolliver/Hezonja to Melo + Tolliver/Little/Hezonja

I know people want to believe that Zach is some massive missing ingredient. While Portland would be better with him, I don't believe he would have made that big a difference in their record right now. There is a lot more wrong with this team then just missing Zach

Sure but lets think about this, Their missing Nurk, they replaced him with Whiteside who’s been good, but now their back up and only back up is Skal, when WS has missed time weve been gifted Tolliver at C. With Zach hurt they replaced him with a HORRID defender in Melo, who’s also an inefficient scorer, its a downgrade, but their back up is basically to go big with Skal or go small with Little because Mario and Tolliver are almost unplayable. Then with Hood out, their starting Baze, which their back ups are Simons, Little or two guys who are like I said unplayable. I think the narrative that well they found other guys to play who are borderline starters is missing that, now they are expecting major things from guys who arent capable of giving them anything most nights. Simons, Little, Skal may have bright futures but they arent ready to contribute on a nightly basis. Their starters play almost 0 defense. Having Nurk make Whiteside a back up, Having Zach and Hood would make Melo and Baze bench guys. You go from a team with a lot of depth to a team with basically 0 depth.
Blame Olshey all you want for not having a ton of depth but the injuries do play a big role in how inconsistent they are and how bad they are, because their having to rely on inconsistent young players and old bad ones.

 

[Tince]

And this is the problem, why don't we play like that every time when it works? This strategy, where the big goes back into the paint and gives opponent a open 3 is fucking garbage, it's way to oldschool.

You must've missed the post above saying that in 5 of 7 seasons under Stotts, we've been top 5 in the league in terms of the fewest threes given up and average in %. Giving up less threes in an age where everyone shoots threes would be the opposite of old school.

 

[Hoopguru]

A CJ for Jrue Holiday swap would fix a lot of Portland’s issues right now. But it’s too obvious for Olshey to see.

Not sure CJ would be enough for Jrue?

 

[wizenheimer]

Sure but lets think about this, Their missing Nurk, they replaced him with Whiteside who’s been good, but now their back up and only back up is Skal, when WS has missed time weve been gifted Tolliver at C. With Zach hurt they replaced him with a HORRID defender in Melo, who’s also an inefficient scorer, its a downgrade, but their back up is basically to go big with Skal or go small with Little because Mario and Tolliver are almost unplayable. Then with Hood out, their starting Baze, which their back ups are Simons, Little or two guys who are like I said unplayable. I think the narrative that well they found other guys to play who are borderline starters is missing that, now they are expecting major things from guys who arent capable of giving them anything most nights. Simons, Little, Skal may have bright futures but they arent ready to contribute on a nightly basis. Their starters play almost 0 defense. Having Nurk make Whiteside a back up, Having Zach and Hood would make Melo and Baze bench guys. You go from a team with a lot of depth to a team with basically 0 depth.
Blame Olshey all you want for not having a ton of depth but the injuries do play a big role in how inconsistent they are and how bad they are, because their having to rely on inconsistent young players and old bad ones.

most of that could be true and accurate but still:

* Zach played in 77 games last season and his total winshares for the season was 2.9; and that was on a team with a winning% of .646. Even accounting for a 30-40% increase in minutes this year, at this point, Zach would have been worth 2 more wins, based on winshares. And maybe 3 if you credit Zach with hypothetical major improvement this season, even though hsi production in the 3 games he played was well below last year

Portland's 2 biggest issues have been perimeter defense and rebounding. Zach is not good at either

Portland has had Dame posting about the best numbers of his career and he's at 4.6 winshares; after a slow start, CJ has been about to his norms and he's at 2.1 winshares; Whiteside has been quite good for Portland plugging some gaping holes in the roster, and he's only at 3.8 winshares. Hood was playing really well and he only had 1.3 winshares in 21 games. It just kind of defies logic to believe Zach would have been responsible for more than 2 or 3 more wins when Dame has less than 5 and Whiteside has less than 4. Zach simply does not have that type of impact

now, here's wher people will argue that winshares couldn't measure Zach's impact. I'm willing to allow that Zach's absence has been critical, but I'm not willing to allow he'd have been worth more wins than Whiteside or Dame. I think at best, Portland would be 17-15 right now, but more likely 16-16. And I really doubt they'd have Melo, so you'd also have to subtract his contributions.

like I said, there's a lot more things going wrong with this team than missing Zach

 

[wizenheimer]

Not sure CJ would be enough for Jrue?

I think a lot of teams would love to have CJ in a 6th man role like Lou Williams plays. That seems really suitable for CJ's skillset (although Williams is a much better playmaker). A few teams with bigger ball handlers would probably like CJ a lot as the off guard for their offense. Teams like Dallas (Doncic); 76ers (Simmons)

but I really doubt any of those teams would want CJ in either of those roles at 31M/year over the next 4.6 seasons. That's a huge commitment to an undersized SG who has never sniffed an all-star game, and who is a minus defender. That contract extension has likely torpedoed CJ's trade value; maybe that was one Of Olshey's reasons for giving CJ that huge deal.

so no, I doubt the Pels would consider that trade

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

most of that could be true and accurate but still:

* Zach played in 77 games last season and his total winshares for the season was 2.9; and that was on a team with a winning% of .646. Even accounting for a 30-40% increase in minutes this year, at this point, Zach would have been worth 2 more wins, based on winshares. And maybe 3 if you credit Zach with hypothetical major improvement this season, even though hsi production in the 3 games he played was well below last year

Portland's 2 biggest issues have been perimeter defense and rebounding. Zach is not good at either

Portland has had Dame posting about the best numbers of his career and he's at 4.6 winshares; after a slow start, CJ has been about to his norms and he's at 2.1 winshares; Whiteside has been quite good for Portland plugging some gaping holes in the roster, and he's only at 3.8 winshares. Hood was playing really well and he only had 1.3 winshares in 21 games. It just kind of defies logic to believe Zach would have been responsible for more than 2 or 3 more wins when Dame has less than 5 and Whiteside has less than 4. Zach simply does not have that type of impact

now, here's wher people will argue that winshares couldn't measure Zach's impact. I'm willing to allow that Zach's absence has been critical, but I'm not willing to allow he'd have been worth more wins than Whiteside or Dame. I think at best, Portland would be 17-15 right now, but more likely 16-16. And I really doubt they'd have Melo, so you'd also have to subtract his contributions.

like I said, there's a lot more things going wrong with this team than missing Zach

Subtracting Melo’s “contributions” would be like an addition... His OPBM is -2.7, he’s a bad defender his bpm is -3.6 this year... Zach was -3.1 in 3 games, but even if he just makes it all the way to last year which was .1 thats a heck of a lot better than what their getting from Melo.

 

[CupWizier]

Dame/CJ: 20-44 (.454) for 59 points with 10 assists and 8 rebounds
Mitchell/Ingels: 22-34 (.647) for 61 points, 11 assists and 8 rebounds

The difference in efficiency is staggering. Dame and CJ are supposed to be (with Steph/Klay out) the best backcourt in the league yet they were outscored, out-assisted, with the same amount of rebounds and where miles behind in shooting percentage. Decent offensive numbers given the way CJ started but it's on the defensive end where I have long submitted our dynamic duo is lacking. Giving up 61 points on 34 shots....just think about that.

Yep, I always base my opinion on one game match ups rather than look at the larger body of work.

https://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=401071436

 

[BBert]

Why was Whiteside not in the game at the end?

Because he was playing worthless, lazy, uninspired basketball to that point. Maybe he can't handle the pressure of the TNT guys criticizing him.

Hoping Whiteside will bounce back and play with pride against the Hated Lakers.

 

[BBert]

Utah outscored Portland in the paint, 60-34 and Whiteside only played 22 minutes...those two things are connected

Yeah, they scored in the paint because Whiteside played 22 minutes

I thought the disparity was already big before Whiteside got benched?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

https://official.nba.com/l2m/L2MReport.html?gameId=0021900465

 

[Strenuus]

https://official.nba.com/l2m/L2MReport.html?gameId=0021900465

Should also show its stotts fault we lost. These last two minute reports, I swear...

 

[Cugel]

Like most I didn't like Melo taking that shot...should have been dame or CJ. Thanks NBA. moot point now.

 

[AldoTrapani]

too simple a take in my view. Collins is a much better interior defender than he is a perimeter defender. His perimeter defense has been mediocre; worse, IIRC, is that he has accumulated a lot of his foul trouble when reacting to perimeter offense. He's not nearly as good as Aminu was defending the perimeter

a big downgrade in the defense has been going from a PF rotation of Aminu + Zach to Zach + Tolliver/Hezonja to Melo + Tolliver/Little/Hezonja

I know people want to believe that Zach is some massive missing ingredient. While Portland would be better with him, I don't believe he would have made that big a difference in their record right now. There is a lot more wrong with this team then just missing Zach

Collins isn’t even that good lol

 

[Blazers Roy]

CJ stop leaving shooters

It's not only CJ, Baze does it too. It seems like the wings were given order to help interior defense

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

It's not only CJ, Baze does it too. It seems like the wings were given order to help interior defense

I think the wings werent really given orders...

 

[hoopsjock]

Come on CJ was really good down the stretch of that game, he started bad, but it wasn't him shooting that hurt them. Basically Melo choked a lot.

I know this is a week late but if you go back and watch on 2 of Utah's 3 pointers in the closing minutes of the game CJ inexplicably left his assignment on defense resulting in a kick out open 3.

 

[hoopsjock]

Do you bet big bucks on the Blazers every year? You should if you know something nobody else does.

Not sure what politics has to do with the game.

Personally I've won quite a bit of money (relative to my financial situation, lol) betting on the over for win totals nearly every year. Dating back to the Roy/Aldridge draft this has been easy money most years. Conveniently/luckily I wasn't able to make a bet this year as I stopped using off shore betting, wasn't in Vegas in 2019, and the Oregon Scoreboard Lottery App had some issues initially.

A lot of futures bets like win total over/unders have a low limit compared to single game wagers. The site I used to use it was a $500 max.