Getting to max contract range in 2013-2014...

[glazeduck]

For those who missed it, Storyteller had a great article on blazersedge. I'm using his spreadsheets in this post...

Assuming we match for Nic, it would seem that our core is starting to round into shape. Obviously long-term Leonard, Lillard, Batum and Aldridge figure in as starters, I have faith that we'll see Freeland and Claver become quality role players off the bench, and I don't think its unreasonable to expect either EWill or Nolan (or a combo of the 2 if they can't stay healthy) to give us decent guard production off the bench.

The odd-men-out appear to be Wes and Babbit. Unless he shows us some serious improvement this season, I still think Wes' best role is as a 6th man and while I feel he'd give us MORE production than either EWill or Nolan, I'm not sure that it would be a $4.5 or $5.5 Million difference respectively - especially if that $ amount is standing between us and a max-level contract next off season. Babbit's production speaks for itself. He seems to try hard everywhere, but all he really gives us is shooting. Again, if Claver can provide decent, consistent production at the 3 for us, I see no reason why a 3pt specialist who can't crack the 2 deep should stand in the way of a max contract.

In the article above, Storyteller estimates that next offseason, with the roster that we have we'll be roughly $5.6M under the cap (including the hold for a lotto pick.) Wes will be making $6.875M next season and Luke $2.9M, if we're able to unload those without taking salary back, all of a sudden we're looking at $15.4M in cap room (depending on where threshold is placed next year and a few other things...) with really only needing a starting 2 guard, backup PG (unless Nolan becomes that, I have my doubts) and 4th big man -- the latter 2 of which shouldn't be hard to take care of with vets...

I think it's entirely possible that, especially if we suck as much as a lot of us think we will this season, we could see Wes and Babbitt traded at the deadline for future picks/cheap assets in order to be able to give a max offer Harden next offseason. I imagine teams in contention would love to have either a cheap, young 3pt specialist or a defender who can shoot like Wes off their bench for the stretch run. If we need to sweeten the pot, adding either/both of our Greeks would also save us a bit of $ I believe.

As a minor aside - if Hickson plays this year like he did last year (I'm assuming he'll be our starting "center") I think he could be a valuable commodity at the deadline. A young, athletic big man who's started to show production and has an expiring contract if things don't go well...

It seems that Olshey has positioned us nicely to rebuild!

 

[Pinwheel1]

So Hickson, Wes and Babbitt (or a combination of them) for a SG or picks at the deadline. It will be interesting to follow for the first 4 months of the season to see how it plays out. But over all a good theory.

 

[Sedatedfork]

So Hickson, Wes and Babbitt (or a combination of them) for a SG or picks at the deadline. It will be interesting to follow for the first 4 months of the season to see how it plays out. But over all a good theory.

Hickson's on a 1 year contract so he won't necessarily need to be traded. I could get behind this.

 

[Eastoff]

So Hickson, Wes and Babbitt (or a combination of them) for a SG or picks at the deadline. It will be interesting to follow for the first 4 months of the season to see how it plays out. But over all a good theory.

No, they will be traded for nothing, so we can sign Harden at the SG.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

Agreed glazeduck. Ive been saying for a week now, if we match batum I believe wes is outta here at the trade deadline.

Cant we decline babbitts team option for next year?

 

[Mediocre Man]

Agreed glazeduck. Ive been saying for a week now, if we match batum I believe wes is outta here at the trade deadline.

Cant we decline babbitts team option for next year?

Matching Batum does not put any stress on our cap at all for core players

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

Matching Batum does not put any stress on our cap at all for core players

Ok?

Moving wes at the deadline ensures major cap space for us again next year with batums contract in the equation.

If we would have let batum go, there would have been no point in moving wes

 

[Pinwheel1]

Hickson's on a 1 year contract so he won't necessarily need to be traded. I could get behind this.

Yeah I was thinking more in line that we never do well with cap space or RFA's so maybe trading JJ, Wes, and Babbitt at the deadline for a SG may be a better option. Whoever that player is will not be as good as Hardin, but those three are a decent value for a young promising SG and maybe a bad contract.

 

[Eastoff]

The biggest problem I see is that we'll end up like Miami, desperately needing bodies on the cheap and at serious disadvantage if any of our starters get hurt.

 

[Blazinaway]

Yeah I was thinking more in line that we never do well with cap space or RFA's so maybe trading JJ, Wes, and Babbitt at the deadline for a SG may be a better option. Whoever that player is will not be as good as Hardin, but those three are a decent value for a young promising SG and maybe a bad contract.

or trade for an SF since Nic is as good or may even be better at SG, so that gives added flexibility, and we'll hopefully have a full season to evaluate Ewill to see what he can do, if he blossoms who knows we may go in another direction.

 

[Masbee]

I have seen this a dozen times in the last month and I wish folks would stop it.

Nobody is going to steal James Harden from the OKC Thunder for a MAX offer. It is a mini-max deal that pays $12mil this year (maybe a bit more next year). That would be considered at worst fair value for Harden.

OKC would match - in a heartbeat.

There is NO WAY we get Harden unless we trade for him.

Thank you.

 

[Further]

Chances are very slim that the Thunder let Harden go for nothing. They are not hoping that no team offers him the max, they know some team will. They are just trying to decide if they are going to match and deal with the consequences, or do a S&T and get some high picks/players for Harden.

And there are very few other UFA out there. Perhaps Kevin Martin, but I don't know how well he fits. Basically, I think that the overall better strategy is to get assets upon assets and just trading wes is not really going to do that. With his contract slightly high, I think what he offers on the floor is more than he would offer via trade.

 

[glazeduck]

I have seen this a dozen times in the last month and I wish folks would stop it.

Nobody is going to steal James Harden from the OKC Thunder for a MAX offer. It is a mini-max deal that pays $12mil this year (maybe a bit more next year). That would be considered at worst fair value for Harden.

OKC would match - in a heartbeat.

There is NO WAY we get Harden unless we trade for him.

Thank you.

While you're not wrong - OKC isn't just going to let a division rival have one of their best players for nothing, you're also ignoring the fact that he AND Ibaka will get paid AND being FAR too literal with your scenario. Obviously Harden would be a great fit, but as others have stated, the spirit of the idea is to simply find OUR SG (or SF, really). So whether it's OKC deciding they'd prefer to keep Ibaka and get something for Harden (we'd have Wes, Hickson and a lotto pick to offer - not too shabby), or us simply using either the cap space or assets to acquire another young wing, the point was that we're set nicely to be able to do so.

Beyond that, you act as though Paul Allen owns OKC, he doesn't. With 2 stars already on max deals, the Thunder simply can't afford to add 2 more guys at that price with the new, more punitive CBA, so again, you're not wrong, but the fact is that they'll be having to make a tough decision there.

In the vein of your post, I would ask more posters like you to stop trashing posts by taking them literally word-for-word and instead, add to the conversation by understanding what the idea is behind it. If you don't like the idea of Harden because you don't feel that it's realistic, insert a name that you DO like and that IS realistic and add something of substance to the conversation, rather than calling others out as though you're some sort of thought police.

 

[Reep]

I think those of you trying to dump Wes are barking up the wrong tree. Things may change, but right now the current administration is making him the team leader (since LMA doesn't seem to be able). Unless someone else steps into that role, I don't see Wes going anywhere. He had a down year, but the guy can shoot and defend and fits in nicely with what this team is about.

With all the young, low-salaried players, I'm sure Blazers can use the space and make a nice package if they want. I'm just not sure Wes will be part of it.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

While you're not wrong - OKC isn't just going to let a division rival have one of their best players for nothing, you're also ignoring the fact that he AND Ibaka will get paid AND being FAR too literal with your scenario. Obviously Harden would be a great fit, but as others have stated, the spirit of the idea is to simply find OUR SG (or SF, really). So whether it's OKC deciding they'd prefer to keep Ibaka and get something for Harden (we'd have Wes, Hickson and a lotto pick to offer - not too shabby), or us simply using either the cap space or assets to acquire another young wing, the point was that we're set nicely to be able to do so.

Beyond that, you act as though Paul Allen owns OKC, he doesn't. With 2 stars already on max deals, the Thunder simply can't afford to add 2 more guys at that price with the new, more punitive CBA, so again, you're not wrong, but the fact is that they'll be having to make a tough decision there.

In the vein of your post, I would ask more posters like you to stop trashing posts by taking them literally word-for-word and instead, add to the conversation by understanding what the idea is behind it. If you don't like the idea of Harden because you don't feel that it's realistic, insert a name that you DO like and that IS realistic and add something of substance to the conversation, rather than calling others out as though you're some sort of thought police.

They are a championship contender as long as they keep that core in tact, they aren't going to break it up.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

after Harden, who are the next 3 top FAs. Look at the 4th or 5th one, because that's going to be our likely target even with max money.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

http://www.hoopsworld.com/2013-nba-free-agents

not a bad pool. but again, most of the big names will stay with their teams. max offer to Andrew Bynum! :MARIS61:

 

[Mediocre Man]

Ok?

Moving wes at the deadline ensures major cap space for us again next year with batums contract in the equation.

If we would have let batum go, there would have been no point in moving wes

Wes sucks though, and Batum doesn't

 

[magnifier661]

Well this is great to hear. Now I'm seriously leaning on "matching". If we have an opportunity to be 15 mil under cap next season; then I'm all for waiting. Harding would be a perfect #1 or #2 option on the team.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

after Harden, who are the next 3 top FAs. Look at the 4th or 5th one, because that's going to be our likely target even with max money.

2013 nba free agents

Andrew Bynum is unrestricted.

Fun factor: Nikola Pekovic

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

2013 nba free agents

Andrew Bynum is unrestricted.

certainly a target, but I think Bynum wants a party town. thinking somewhere like Atlanta which is good for young, rich black athletes. :MARIS61: they should be well under the cap as well.

just strikes me as that type of guy.

 

[maxiep]

This thread is the reason I'm fine with letting Nico go. We have too much money committed to too little production. Wes Matthews is a backup SG. Period. If he's starting for you, you're not going far in the playoffs.

There are a lot of unknowns on this team. Some of our young players may pan out, some certainly won't. Why commit salary when we have no idea how players who we're banking will be our future centerpieces will pan out? It's poor cap management.

Let Nico go and allow Minny to hope and pray he lives up to his contract.

 

[glazeduck]

2013 nba free agents

Some intriguing names on that list... If you figure Lillard, LMA and Batum are our #1, 2, and 3 scorers (not necessarily in that order, just how they spilled out of my brain), we wouldn't necessarily NEED a stud scoring 2. You could look at a guy like Shumpert or Kahwi Leonard to do a lot of the dirty work...

Then again there's other guys like Paul George and Evan Turner who, if we really CAN offer a max deal, would be pretty seriously enticing...

 

[magnifier661]

2013 nba free agents

Andrew Bynum is unrestricted.

Fun factor: Nikola Pekovic

That's quite the list!

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Some intriguing names on that list... If you figure Lillard, LMA and Batum are our #1, 2, and 3 scorers (not necessarily in that order, just how they spilled out of my brain), we wouldn't necessarily NEED a stud scoring 2. You could look at a guy like Shumpert or Kahwi Leonard to do a lot of the dirty work...

Then again there's other guys like Paul George and Evan Turner who, if we really CAN offer a max deal, would be pretty seriously enticing...

Granted, you're catching me after summer league game 2, but I think we need a Center.

 

[magnifier661]

Granted, you're catching me after summer league game 2, but I think we need a Center.

But would we want Vagynum? Purple and Piss is strong with that one!

 

[Masbee]

While you're not wrong - OKC isn't just going to let a division rival have one of their best players for nothing, you're also ignoring the fact that he AND Ibaka will get paid AND being FAR too literal with your scenario. Obviously Harden would be a great fit, but as others have stated, the spirit of the idea is to simply find OUR SG (or SF, really). So whether it's OKC deciding they'd prefer to keep Ibaka and get something for Harden (we'd have Wes, Hickson and a lotto pick to offer - not too shabby), or us simply using either the cap space or assets to acquire another young wing, the point was that we're set nicely to be able to do so.

Beyond that, you act as though Paul Allen owns OKC, he doesn't. With 2 stars already on max deals, the Thunder simply can't afford to add 2 more guys at that price with the new, more punitive CBA, so again, you're not wrong, but the fact is that they'll be having to make a tough decision there.

In the vein of your post, I would ask more posters like you to stop trashing posts by taking them literally word-for-word and instead, add to the conversation by understanding what the idea is behind it. If you don't like the idea of Harden because you don't feel that it's realistic, insert a name that you DO like and that IS realistic and add something of substance to the conversation, rather than calling others out as though you're some sort of thought police.

You are barking up the wrong tree.

I posted over a year ago that the OKC would not be able to keep all 4 guys. I already know this and see it as a major challenge for OKC in the near future.

But, that doesn't change the fact that at the new Mini-Max rate Harden will be a very valuable asset. If the OKC are in the Finals again, I think OKC ownership would have no problem paying the luxury tax for just one season. That allows them extend Harden and Ibaka. In two years they would need to trade one of the big 4.

There is simply NO WAY they allow Harden to just walk next summer. If the ownership group refuses to allow the payment of the lux tax, then MAYBE the team decides to move early on Harden and/or Ibaka in a trade. In which case they will be asking for a lot in return. They wouldn't want Hickson as the centerpiece of a Harden trade when the have Ibaka.

Either way, we or any other team with cap space is not going to simply snag Harden as an RFA next summer.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

I could see okc trying to move harden for a lotto pick likebthey were rumored to be trying this year.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

PG: Lillard
SG:
SF: Batum
PF: Aldridge* (I still believe next summer is the right time to deal him)
C: Leonard

Make a play for Harden or look at an uneven trade for Eric Gordon. I honestly believe the Hornets are in for a rude awakening with Rivers at PG. That is going to be a disaster, he's a SG! We'll have many options next summer.

 

[magnifier661]

I could see okc trying to move harden for a lotto pick likebthey were rumored to be trying this year.

Well it sucks that they would most likely not trade with us; but I suspect we could offer them quite a bit of rookie talent for Harding.