Heard on a political talk show this am.

[Yankeefan5545]

The moderator commented that Trump was like a box of chocolates, when opened one would not know what they were getting. In the case of Hillary all of the chocolates were of a poison variety. The comments were issued discussing the probable lesser of two evils election. The man stated that a vote for Trump would most likely favor the nation. I'm hoping that Trump will not be the nominee but at this point it looks like its going to happen.

 

[yankeesince59]

...given the unfortunate choice between Hillary and Trump, I'm not sure there is a lesser of two evils...IMO, they're both evil.

...kinda like choosing between being stabbed in the heart with a knife or being shot in the head with a gun..

 

[totus44]

the problem with all these commentators is that they don't have a fucking clue how a political convention operates. if Trump does not get to 1,237 delegates then he will not be the nominee on the first ballot. If it goes to a second ballot then he will not win...period. Following the final primary, there are 6 weeks until the convention....Cruz Kasich and Rubio are free to make any deals they want and their delegates are generally "bound" to align to those deals on the first ballot. So lets say the scenario looks like Trump 1100, Cruz 800, Kasich and others 500+, Cruz and Kasich can combine to form a ticket that Rubio binds his delegates too....that ticket gets nominated and Trump can go back to fraud court. Trump needs 60%of the remaining delegates in proportional races and he's never broken 40%, and there are a lot of Republican only contests left.

Now lets talk about these "delegates"....they are pledged to vote for their candidate. However, there are no guarantees that they will. These people are elected from local grassroots GOP base, very active in the party. These aren't Trump people. In fact thee are generally the GOP folks that favor Ted Cruz. You see there is a lot of talk about how much DC hates Cruz, but the local parties....he's their hero. Cruz has already locked up most of the machinery in CA for the coming primaries...he did that last year BEFORE he announced his candidacy. I cannot confirm, but there is widespread rumor that Cruz has already planted "double agents" in Trump's camp, folks that will be pledged to Trump but will vote their conscience. This is how conventions works...they are private organizations and can do what they want. All this voting right now has been purely beauty pageant. This is how Ford beat Reagan in 1976.

Trump is so far out of his element its gonna be priceless watching him get arrested for inciting riots.

 

[yankeesince59]

...Tote, unfortunately some people somehow equate Trump winning states with 35%-40% or so as a slam dunk for the nomination, but as you and I know, that's not how it works.

...and just when I think Trump's rhetoric has getting any more inane, now he's making references to riots but with tongue in cheek he tries to give the impression that he's not planting a seed to incite his followers.


...and like you, I'd be very surprised if he wins the nomination before the convention.

 

[Messiah717]

The numbers are fairly simple at this point. Once Missouri finishes up their allocation Trump will be at 685 delegates and then need 552 delegates. There would be 1038 delegates left so he would need between 53 and 54 percent of the delegates in the remaining contests. Considering the Northeast states that are ahead where you would expect him to dominate those percentages aren't crazy at all. This is why the establishment is in frenzy.

 

[Yankeefan5545]

I got a good howl out of his comment on Hillary Hippo and her poison chocolates. No wonder slick Willie ran out the door at each opportunity. Bad gig with Rubio, still hoping Cruz can pull off a nomination.

 

[Mattingly23NY]

just watched a documentary on the Ford-Reagan 76 race and Convention.....

I've never thought a Pres candidate would ever stoop so low, as to play the "riots" card, or the other moron, lying, fraudulent fkng bitch, who has enough skeletons in Her closet to fill a large Graveyard.....

agree, both are evil....

I can only wonder what Foreign dignataries, must be thinking, or laughing at our POTUS elections at this point, unless what Tote is saying indeed happens, and I'd not be surprised to see another 76 upset....

 

[Messiah717]

I just turn the television off whenever Hillary gets ready to speak. Her voice is unbearable as is her smug entitled demeanor when it comes to the Presidency.

 

[Yankeefan5545]

Reagan was a class act and great with the one liners, the man represented these United States in a superb manner.

 

[yankeesince59]

The numbers are fairly simple at this point. Once Missouri finishes up their allocation Trump will be at 685 delegates and then need 552 delegates. There would be 1038 delegates left so he would need between 53 and 54 percent of the delegates in the remaining contests. Considering the Northeast states that are ahead where you would expect him to dominate those percentages aren't crazy at all. This is why the establishment is in frenzy.

...but that's just it, Trump is not getting 53-54%...the polls I've seen show him getting somewhere around 44-45% in NY and considerably less than that in Pennsylvania...after those 2 states there's not really many delegates left in the northeast.

 

[totus44]

Chances of Trump getting to 1237 are a long shot, and even longer to get those pledged to vote for him. Especially the way his fringe supporters act, they define his campaign. GOP could also discount his delegates proportionally based on DEM crossovers that trolled the polls. The GOP will not let it's nominee be picked by DEMs that vote in primaries and then likely switch back.

Two scenarios, he doesn't get to 1237 and he gets jilted....or he gets taken out by his fraud case, some other smoking gun....or literally a smoking gun. GOP prefers to lose a portion of Trump fans vs. a complete splintering of the party.

I'm really not worried, the Drump bs will be past us in a couple of months.

 

[yankeesince59]

^^^ Yup, ... "Trump train will eventually derail."

 

[Rick2583]

I really think we're going to see a big change in the numbers leaning toward Cruz now that Rubio has dropped out & even more so for Cruz if Kasich also drops out.