To answer the question, I do think Obama will win, but barely. The fact is, he did save us from a Depression, saved the US auto industry, passed healthcare reform, and killed Osama. These are not insignificant.
That said, as a Democrat, I am disappointed in him. But I would still vote for him.
Romney is far more vulnerable than generally thought of right now. He's too rich at a time when that is not a benefit, he's a serial flip flopper like John Kerry, he stands for nothing, and he passed Obamacare before Obama. I think the Obama campaign will make mincemeat out of him.
I will say though Romney is smart and has a history of fixing things. I like that about him. But between Bain, his wealth, and being a liberal, then a moderate, and now a conservative, he shows himself to be a political whore. Not a winning combo.