Historical trade deadlines for contenders

[BrianFromWA]

Bumping recycled material from last year, because of the multiple "Arms Race"/"Trade Rumors"/"Free Agents" threads.

"I can think of only one team in the last decade that (made a mid-season trade), and it didn't work out for them.
2013-14 Finalists: Heat traded Roger Mason, Jr. for a second to clear space for ring-seekers, Spurs traded Austin Daye for Nando de Colo.
2012-13 Finalists: Heat didn't make any trades, Spurs didn't make any trades.
2011-12 Finalists: Heat didn't make any trades. Thunder traded Jeff Green (I'm seeing a trend), Krstic and a 1st for Perkins and Krypto-Nate.
2010-11 Finalists: Heat didn't make midseason trade. DAL traded in the summer for Tyson Chandler, giving up Carroll, Najera and Dampier. Seems like a buy-low scenario.
2009-10 Finalists: L*kers didn't make any trade. BOS didn't make a trade.
2008-09 Finalists: L*kers didn't make any trade. ORL needed a PG after Nelson went down, and traded Brian Cook and a protected 1st for Rafer Alston. Hardly buying high.
2007-08 Finalists: BOS made their "Big 3" trade, but I don't know that they "Bought high". LAL made the Gasol trade for peanuts.
2006-07 Finalists: SAS didn't make a trade. CLE didn't make a trade.
2005-06 Finalists: MIA had already traded for Shaq the year before and signed FA vets. DAL didn't make any trades.
2004-05 Finalists: SAS didn't make a trade. DET didn't make a trade.
2003-04 Finalists: LAL didn't make a trade (just FA signings). DET's trade for Sheed sent out Bobby Sura, Zelco Rebrajca and a protected 1st. I don't see that as "buying high".

To get to the point, I think that history shows that unless you're getting a star for pennies on the dollar, contenders generally roll with what they have starting out the season. Sending a first-rounder isn't pennies on the dollar unless it's for someone like Melo---definitely not for Chandler, Green, etc.

 

[Scalma]

You're assuming Portland is good enough to be a finalist. They're not.

 

[BrianFromWA]

No, what I'm saying is that, if you're correct and they aren't (which I don't believe), then a mid-season trade isn't getting them there, unless it's pennies on the dollar. Sending out a first + whatever for Chandler/Green/etc is neither buying low or adding a monster piece.

Edit: So the answer to the next question is: If we aren't good enough to be a contender, then summertime/draft is the time to re-tool, not mid-season. At least, not if you want to be a Finalist. Do some damage with those draft picks and FA (MLE) dollars then.

 

[Scalma]

I just think the Chandler case is a special one. He's got a reasonable contract and fits perfectly with the team and I don't believe there will be anyone better fit in free agency. He's around the same age as the core players, can play 3 positions, provides solid defense, and gives the team a third scoring option in case Lillard and Aldridge are struggling. Batum and Matthews are more role players than go to guys. Chandler gives you that go to scorer, and he would also allow Batum and Matthews to rest more. That's huge, considering how worn out the team looked last year vs the Spurs.

 

[magnifier661]

You're assuming Portland is good enough to be a finalist. They're not.

Why wouldn't they be good enough? I'm not against a mid season trade, but I definitely think they are good enough now.

Our offensive rating is top 6 and our defensive rating is 2nd. Rotations tighten up during the playoffs to 8-9 players. I think we have a solid 8 man rotation, possibly even a 9 man rotation.

8 man rotation: Lillard, Matthews, Batum, Aldridge, Lopez, Kaman, Blake, Freeland

9 man rotation: Lillard, Matthews, Batum, Aldridge, Lopez, Kaman, Blake, Freeland, CJ or Crabbe

 

[Scalma]

Why wouldn't they be good enough? I'm not against a mid season trade, but I definitely think they are good enough now.

Our offensive rating is top 6 and our defensive rating is 2nd. Rotations tighten up during the playoffs to 8-9 players. I think we have a solid 8 man rotation, possibly even a 9 man rotation.

8 man rotation: Lillard, Matthews, Batum, Aldridge, Lopez, Kaman, Blake, Freeland

9 man rotation: Lillard, Matthews, Batum, Aldridge, Lopez, Kaman, Blake, Freeland, CJ or Crabbe

Compare those rotations to the spurs and warriors rotations. It's not as good IMO. Chandler would change that.

 

[magnifier661]

Compare those rotations to the spurs and warriors rotations. It's not as good IMO. Chandler would change that.

I would disagree. I think our top 8-9 is better than both their top 8-9. What they are doing now is using a regular season rotation. When the playoffs come around, that will tighten up.

I do agree that adding Chandler would improve this greatly, so you won't have any argument from me there. I am only arguing that our current rotation has what it takes to get to the finals

 

[Eastoff]

Why wouldn't they be good enough? I'm not against a mid season trade, but I definitely think they are good enough now.

Our offensive rating is top 6 and our defensive rating is 2nd. Rotations tighten up during the playoffs to 8-9 players. I think we have a solid 8 man rotation, possibly even a 9 man rotation.

8 man rotation: Lillard, Matthews, Batum, Aldridge, Lopez, Kaman, Blake, Freeland

9 man rotation: Lillard, Matthews, Batum, Aldridge, Lopez, Kaman, Blake, Freeland, CJ or Crabbe

no, we're first in points allowed now.

 

[magnifier661]

no, we're first in points allowed now.

But we are talking efficiency.

 

[blue9]

To get to the point, I think that history shows that unless you're getting a star for pennies on the dollar, contenders generally roll with what they have starting out the season. Sending a first-rounder isn't pennies on the dollar unless it's for someone like Melo---definitely not for Chandler, Green, etc.

When it comes to on-court productiveness the rumored Chandler trade is definitely a pennies on the dollar trade. The draft pick isn't providing us with any production, and CJ/Robinson/Wright/Claver/Barton are providing us with very little, if anything. Now, from a value POV I agree that the asking price is a little too high. But in terms of what it does for the roster this season, it's pennies on the dollar.

 

[magnifier661]

When it comes to on-court productiveness the rumored Chandler trade is definitely a pennies on the dollar trade. The draft pick isn't providing us with any production, and CJ/Robinson/Wright/Claver/Barton are providing us with very little, if anything. Now, from a value POV I agree that the asking price is a little too high. But in terms of what it does for the roster this season, it's pennies on the dollar.

I agree. Now if we include CJ or Crabbe, with T.Rob and a first rounder, then I would disagree.

 

[Stevenson]

Anyone who doesn't think Wes is a go-to player isn't paying attention.

 

[OneLifeToLive]

No, what I'm saying is that, if you're correct and they aren't (which I don't believe), then a mid-season trade isn't getting them there, unless it's pennies on the dollar. Sending out a first + whatever for Chandler/Green/etc is neither buying low or adding a monster piece.

Edit: So the answer to the next question is: If we aren't good enough to be a contender, then summertime/draft is the time to re-tool, not mid-season. At least, not if you want to be a Finalist. Do some damage with those draft picks and FA (MLE) dollars then.

I agree. Portland has been pretty successful this season with what they have. And if you look at what the starters have had to put this year compared to last season at this time. It's a night and day difference. I don't believe they are as tired and runned down as they were last year. And I think that will be the case come playoff time. That in the end is whats important.

 

[Stevenson]

Mid-season trades disrupt chemistry, which is something we have in spades, plus the second best record in the league.

Trade? No thanks.

 

[Scalma]

Anyone who doesn't think Wes is a go-to player isn't paying attention.

Shooting 3s doesn't make you a go to player. His post game is still developing.

 

[B-Roy]

Shooting 3s doesn't make you a go to player. His post game is still developing.

Teams have been doubling Matthews in the post. What about that doesn't scream developed?

 

[BrianFromWA]

I just think the Chandler case is a special one. He's got a reasonable contract and fits perfectly with the team and I don't believe there will be anyone better fit in free agency. He's around the same age as the core players, can play 3 positions, provides solid defense, and gives the team a third scoring option in case Lillard and Aldridge are struggling. Batum and Matthews are more role players than go to guys. Chandler gives you that go to scorer, and he would also allow Batum and Matthews to rest more. That's huge, considering how worn out the team looked last year vs the Spurs.

I'm not trying to be argumentative here, but what about Wilson Chandler makes you think that he's a "third scoring option" or a "go-to" scorer? Or that he's 10x the player that our young guys/draft pick would be? VORP? OWA? PER? WS/48? ORtg?

His shot chart and heat map are here.

I guess I'm not convinced yet that if you told CJ or Crabbe "Hey, pretend you're Wilson Chandler for the next 4 months and be a 3rd option" they couldn't do it almost as well (if not way more efficiently). Crabbe has half the usage rate of Chandler and about 40% of Green's. McCollum's not getting on the floor much (which may be an indictment in and of itself). Help me see it, because right now I don't.

 

[DaLincolnJones]

wow Brian..that heat map..very telling.. I have not been wild about perusing Chandler, and now even less so

 

[Scalma]

I'm not trying to be argumentative here, but what about Wilson Chandler makes you think that he's a "third scoring option" or a "go-to" scorer? Or that he's 10x the player that our young guys/draft pick would be? VORP? OWA? PER? WS/48? ORtg?

His shot chart and heat map are here.

I guess I'm not convinced yet that if you told CJ or Crabbe "Hey, pretend you're Wilson Chandler for the next 4 months and be a 3rd option" they couldn't do it almost as well (if not way more efficiently). Crabbe has half the usage rate of Chandler and about 40% of Green's. McCollum's not getting on the floor much (which may be an indictment in and of itself). Help me see it, because right now I don't.

Instead of just looking at his numbers, watch him play. Put him in an actual system like the one in Portland and all his efficiency numbers should go up.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

To me, watching him play with my eyes shows he is a bit of a chucker as well. Backs up, not all but, at least 75% of what Brian posted.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Instead of just looking at his numbers, watch him play. Put him in an actual system like the one in Portland and all his efficiency numbers should go up.

so you're saying that he has not ever been in an "actual system"?

 

[Scalma]

so you're saying that he has not ever been in an "actual system"?

Yup. You don't think that's a real thing? Watch the magic tonight on offense. No movement off the ball whatsoever.

 

[magnifier661]

To me, watching him play with my eyes shows he is a bit of a chucker as well. Backs up, not all but, at least 75% of what Brian posted.

Yep... A better version of Mo and that's about it. We will have bad chandler and good chandler. This forum would go ape shit during game threads! Hahaha

 

[Boob-No-More]

Anyone who doesn't think Wes is a go-to player isn't paying attention.

Agreed. I don't understand how the guy averaging 14.2ppg with TS% of .524, PER = 12.3, WS/48 = .067 and VORP = 1.2 on a crappy team is considered a go to scorer, but the guy averaging 16.6ppg wiyh a TS% =.606, PER = 16.5, WS/48 = .166 and VORP = 4.1 on the second best tesm in the league isn't.

Chandler may upgrade our bench, but to claim he's a better scorer than Matthews just isn't supported by the facts.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Instead of just looking at his numbers, watch him play. Put him in an actual system like the one in Portland and all his efficiency numbers should go up.

Conversely, put Wesley Matthews on a crappy sub .500 team like Denver and he'd be averaging over 20ppg. Wes may benefit from the system, but his touches will always be limited by being the third best scorer on a very good team.

BNM

 

[Sinobas]

No team with our roster has ever won an championship, in any sport, in the history of the universe. We must change our roster!