That was the simple one -- now let's try to sort out positions 2-5. I've been saying for a while that Phoenix probably needs to win its season finale against Utah to get home court in the first round, but Denver has lost enough that it's no longer the case: If the Suns beat Denver at home Tuesday and lose in Utah on Wednesday, Phoenix likely would host the Nuggets in the first round. The only way it wouldn't happen is if Utah lost to Golden State on Tuesday and the Nuggets won Monday against Memphis; in that event, the Suns would finish fifth, Utah fourth and Denver third.
At the top, Dallas is in control of the race for the No. 2 seed but must beat the Clippers on Monday night and San Antonio on Wednesday to maintain it. If the Mavs drop one of those games, Utah can usurp No. 2 by winning out and having Denver lose at least once; if Denver also wins out, however, the Mavs would hang on to No. 2, Denver would get No. 3 and Utah No. 4.
The Nuggets and Suns have slim odds at No. 2, as both would need Dallas to lose twice and then win out to get it. In any case, Dallas cannot finish lower than third because Denver, Phoenix and Utah all play each other. Actually, Dallas can lose twice and still get the No. 2 seed; it would need Denver, Phoenix and Utah to each lose once.
Utah has the widest range of possibilities. The Jazz could face a swing between Nos. 2 and 5 hinging on the result of the Phoenix game Wednesday, which is the last meaningful game of the regular season. That situation would happen if Dallas lost once, if Denver lost to Phoenix and beat Memphis, and if the Jazz beat Golden State on Tuesday -- a fairly likely scenario. In that event, a Utah win would make it Jazz No. 2, Mavs No 3, Suns No. 4, Nuggets No. 5; but a Jazz loss would make it Mavs No. 2, Suns No. 3, Nuggets No. 4, Jazz No. 5.
Denver can win the division and the No. 3 seed by winning its last two games, or splitting and having Utah lose at least once. If the Nuggets lose to Phoenix on Tuesday and Utah doesn't drop one of its last two, the Nuggets will open the playoffs on the road. But if the Jazz falter against Phoenix on Wednesday and the Nuggets beat Memphis on Monday, Denver will be the division champ anyway and host the Jazz in the 4-5 series.
Phoenix is unlikely to claim the No. 2 slot but will be the No. 3 seed by winning out. A split likely would put Phoenix fourth, probably hosting either Denver or Utah (whatever team it beats, basically, since these are the Suns' last two opponents) in the first round. If the Suns drop both games, they're definitely fifth.
If you're trying to figure out what the West first-round pairings might be, let's focus for a second on the most likely scenario. That has all of our eight hopefuls beating the non-playoff teams left on their schedule, plus Phoenix beating Denver, plus Utah beating Phoenix; in both those cases the road team is on a back-to-back. That would lock up a Phoenix-Denver pairing in the first round as the 4-5 pairing.
If all that comes to fruition -- even though this past weekend showed us the danger of assumptions, but just play along -- we're left with our pairings hinging on two games: Oklahoma City-Portland and Dallas-San Antonio.
If Oklahoma City and Dallas win, we're looking at (1) Lakers vs. (8) San Antonio, (2) Dallas vs. (7) Portland, and (3) Utah vs. (6) Oklahoma City.
If Portland and Dallas win, it's (1) Lakers vs. (8) Oklahoma City, (2) Dallas vs. (7) San Antonio, and (3) Utah vs. (6) Portland.
If Oklahoma City and San Antonio win, it's (1) Lakers vs. (8) Portland, (2) Utah vs. (7) Oklahoma City, and (3) Dallas vs. (6) San Antonio.
And if Portland and San Antonio win, it's (1) Lakers vs. (8) Oklahoma City, (2) Utah vs. No. (7) San Antonio, and (3) Dallas vs. (6) Portland.
