Hollinger Matchups

[Reep]

Hollinger Link

First Round for Portland:
30% New Orleans
24% Houston
18% San Antonio

This surprised me as I see San Antonio as the leader and New Orleans has a really tough road ahead. I guess if Portland has a solid shot at third then New Orleans becomes more likely. I'm just not sure I see that happening.

OK, now for the fun part -- the West. Since the standings are still changing on a daily basis, the probabilities are a lot more widely distributed. Let's show you what I mean:


L.A. Lakers' likely opponents

The Lakers are probably playing Dallas in Round 1 unless the Mavs sweep both games against the Hornets this week. However, the Lakers could potentially play god in this one by punting their April 14 game against the Jazz to improve their odds of facing Dallas, a team they've owned recently.

As for Round 2? Um, yeah … not a lot of clarity there. What's interesting for Lakers fans is that their two most likely Round 2 opponents are the two teams they probably want to see the least in the postseason: Portland and Houston. But much depends on the still unsettled matter of who ends up in the 4-5 slots out West, and, of course, on who prevails in the first round once they get there.

Portland's likely opponents

The Blazers are in the same boat as the Rockets, with roughly equal odds of facing the Hornets, Rockets, Spurs or Jazz in the opening round depending on whether they end up seeded third or fall into the 4-5 bracket. Same goes for Round 2, where Portland can expect to face the Lakers if it doesn't claim the third seed but would get a much more winnable matchup if it can earn the third slot.

 

[maxiep]

Interesting. I read that as a 30% chance for the 3rd seed, a 24% chance for a fifth seed and an 18% chance for a fourth seed.

 

[Reep]

Interesting. I read that as a 30% chance for the 3rd seed, a 24% chance for a fifth seed and an 18% chance for a fourth seed.

I'm guessing the 30% is a combination of Portland making #3 and Portland making #4 and N.O. passing up the Spurs--which seems highly unlikely to me looking at their schedule.