Hollinger Playoff Odds

[Reep]

Looks like we moved up quite a bit. I would love for someone to post our preseason odds for comparison:

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

5% to win title
10% to be in the finals
95% of making the playoffs. LMA was right.

 

[noknobs]

Hard to believe an automated algorithm based on strength of schedule, margin of victory, recent performance and other factors that I can't recall without looking it up, has us with a better chance than the Thunder. For some reason the Thunder concern me more than any other team. Can't say I'm looking forward to tonight.

 

[Draco]

Yeah I say we are for sure a playoff team this year, being so far above .500 already just gives us too big of a cushion to miss.

Its going to be pretty hard to win any playoff series though. Even if we are a top seed I could see us losing to any of the teams in the West. So I’m really going to enjoy the regular season and look at the postseason as if we are playing with house money.

Just as we can easily lose to any first round opponent; I do think we have a great shot of winning a series against the other top teams in the west. I can see us beating the Spurs, Clippers, or Warriors. If the Thunder or Rockets are playing at their peak they are the two teams I fear we will have the most trouble against though. LaMarcus will have to play like Hakeem did on offense in the mid 90’s, unguardable 1on1 inside with great 3point shooters all over the court.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Hard to believe he thinks we have a better chance than the Thunder. For some reason the Thunder concern me more than any other team. Can't say I'm looking forward to tonight.

Well technically he doesn't "think" this. It's an automated algorithm based on strength of schedule, margin of victory, recent performance and other factors that I can't recall without looking it up.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Margin of Victory is heavily weighted. At least, it was in 2009. Hollinger really bought into Pythagorean derivatives.

 

[Reep]

It probably looked a lot at the road wins and wins against good opponents, but did not discount for teams with key players missing, etc. I don't think it is too far off though. Look at how we played Sacramento vs. how OKC did. My biggest hope is we can hang on and get home court in the first round. Not that we need it since we seem to be playing well on the road too.

 

[noknobs]

Well technically he doesn't "think" this. It's an automated algorithm based on strength of schedule, margin of victory, recent performance and other factors that I can't recall without looking it up.

You are correct, I have edited my post thusly.

 

[Nikolokolus]

You are correct, I have edited my post thusly.

LOL, nice.

 

[magnifier661]

It probably looked a lot at the road wins and wins against good opponents, but did not discount for teams with key players missing, etc. I don't think it is too far off though. Look at how we played Sacramento vs. how OKC did. My biggest hope is we can hang on and get home court in the first round. Not that we need it since we seem to be playing well on the road too.

Well the teams that win on the road are usually the ones advancing in the playoffs. Since Portland has there best road record, it would be pretty easy to give them advantage in that model.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Well the teams that win on the road are usually the ones advancing in the playoffs. Since Portland has there best road record, it would be pretty easy to give them advantage in that model.

Road wins are important, but margin of victory is a much stronger corollary with playoff success.

 

[magnifier661]

Road wins are important, but margin of victory is a much stronger corollary with playoff success.

They are 4th in the entire league right now. So that should hold true too.

 

[Nikolokolus]

They are 4th in the entire league right now. So that should hold true too.

They're fifth ... and no you can't say it "should" hold true a quarter of the way through - lots of ground to cover and lots can (and will) change for every team.