Hollinger Power Rankings

[Further]

Blazers up to #2.

What do you think?

 

[magnifier661]

Blazers up to #2.

What do you think?

Even the robot likes us

 

[KeepOnRollin]

Wonder how Hollinger likes his current gig vs his old one?

 

[magnifier661]

Wonder how Hollinger likes his current gig vs his old one?

Well his own program picked his team 10th. I think he wants to come back and edit the program to memphis's advantage

 

[KeepOnRollin]

Well his own program picked his team 10th. I think he wants to come back and edit the program to memphis's advantage

Doubt he gives a shit quite honestly. Bet it was a heck of a pay raise and he can still be a nerd with his algorithms on the side.

 

[Further]

I don't see how a computer program would have the thunder up at 8th with a 15 - 17 record. It looks like somebody is manipulating things.

The rockets right behind them have six more wins and a tougher sos

 

[3RA1N1AC]

Point differential in last 10 games must have a big role

 

[BlazerCaravan]

I don't see how a computer program would have the thunder up at 8th with a 15 - 17 record. It looks like somebody is manipulating things.

The rockets right behind them have six more wins and a tougher sos

For power rankings, the Hollinger-bot does take Last 10 Games into account, and weighs them against the total record/stats. OKC's last 10 games, even though they are 6-4, has some gaudy stats for Margin of Victory and Strength of Schedule.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Point differential in last 10 games must have a big role

Yep.

 

[Blazersfan161]

And this is with injures too

 

[Boob-No-More]

Point differential in last 10 games must have a big role

Yep, the last 10 games are weighted very heavily in Hollinger's simulations. I call it the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately factor. If you look at OKC, HOU and MEM, all are 6-4 in their last 10 games, all have had a tougher than average SOS, but OKC has a much higher MOV. The last 10 game MOV for HOU and MEM are barely positive. They have been squeaking by by the skin of their teeth and the Hollinger simulations don't think that is as sustainable long run run as the continued success of a team with a much larger recent MOV.

BNM

 

[Further]

Well then if we win our next couple games we should take the top spot.

 

[BlayZa]

I wonder if wins over Toronto and Atlanta will be enough to nudge to #1?

 

[Boob-No-More]

Also, Hollinger's Power Rankings are real time - who is better right now. They are update daily. If you want to see what his simulations project long term, check out his playoff odds. Even though OKC is currently ahead of HOU and MEM in his Power Rankings, his simulations project MEM and HOU as the 3rd and 4th seeds in the West with 52 and 51 wins respective!y. He currently projects OKC as the 8th seed with 45 wins.

BNM

 

[Further]

I wonder if wins over Toronto and Atlanta will be enough to nudge to #1?

Well if we won both our last ten record would be 9-1 and our sos would be above five. And even if we won both games by only one point, our margin for last ten would still be over 7. So most likely, if we win those games we would be on top, but the Warriors might still be able to pull ahead by a sliver. They play 76ers and could run up the margin, and Toronto, which will keep their sos strong.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Well then if we win our next couple games we should take the top spot.

Depends on what Golden State does, to be honest. Remember the better they perform the harder it is to catch them.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

And this is with injures too

It's definitely what makes our record (same as last year at this time) more impressive to me!

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Well then if we win our next couple games we should take the top spot.

I wonder if wins over Toronto and Atlanta will be enough to nudge to #1?

The ATL game might not even be needed. A win over Toronto would increase our L10 record to 9-1 (pushing out our loss to Chicago), and increases our L10 MAR to at least 10.0. That would probably be enough, especially considering that GSW's SOS will take a big hit tomorrow after playing Philly.

 

[maxiep]

I think we're a little high. Stotts has been doing a great job making up for Rolo on a game by game basis, but eventually we're going to get figured out.

These shit teams are coming at just the right time for us. Not having LA play is huge for his recovery and allows his legs a nice break. Also, we haven't had to play our starters huge minutes in his absence.

 

[Blazersfan161]

It's definitely what makes our record (same as last year at this time) more impressive to me!

That and Lillard amazing clutch play

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I think we're a little high.

You're in Denver. We expect no less.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

That and Lillard amazing clutch play

We had plenty of that last year too, so that's just the fun whipped cream on top.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I wonder if wins over Toronto and Atlanta will be enough to nudge to #1?

It's a definite possibility, but will depend on several factors. First, we need to win those games. Second, will be our MOV. Third, will be how GSW does in their next two, and finally their MOV.

All that said, we have been gaining on GSW at a very rapid rate. A week and a half ago, before our 3OT win over SAS, we trailed the Warriors by 6.401 (110.772 to 104.371). Now, we only trail them by 0.553. We made up a ton of ground in the last 10 days. So, that final .553 won't be a problem - if we take care of business and win those two games.

BNM

 

[maxiep]

You're in Denver. We expect no less.

Repped!

Actually, I'm here for the holidays and beyond. It's been awesome going to the games, listening to post game on the way home and then watching the rebroadcasts so I can see what I missed. So much better than NBA league pass!

 

[Boise Blazer]

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports....e-line/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

1. Trail Blazers (25-7. Last Week No. 2). They have won eight of nine and are 2-1 in games that LaMarcus Aldridge has missed recently. They are 14-2 at home — if they can hold their ground in a deep West home court could be huge for them in the playoffs. Good Eastern tests this week with Toronto and Atlanta.


source: 2. Bulls (21-9, LW 10). They have won six in a row and what should really scare teams is they are doing it with offense more than defense. They have looked like the best team in the East of late, they are healthy, and if they can stay that way the road to the Finals out East will go through the Windy City.


source: 3. Warriors (24-5, LW 1). They lost both games in Los Angeles last week — without Andrew Bogut teams have found you can go at them and get shots in the paint. Bogut is going to miss a couple more weeks at least but the good news is the Warriors are home for six of the next seven.

 

[magnifier661]

Stein has us staying at 3rd, GS drops to #2 and Chicago #1

http://m.espn.go.com/nba/rankings?year=2015&week=9&src=desktop&ex_cid=sportscenterTW

Remember when Damian Lillard supposedly started the season in a funk? We can't, either. Lillard suddenly leads the league in scoring in the fourth quarter and overtime with an average of 7.4 points, which has helped hike Portland to a robust +9 when you subtract home losses from road wins.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

That "road wins minus home losses" metric is interesting. Orlando, for instance, is 9 games below .500, yet their RW-HL is only -1, because they've played 20 road games to only 13 at home, and they actually have a better road record (8-12) than home record (4-9). This metric suggests that as their schedule evens out, their record might start to creep up.

I'm calling it now--the Magic are my dark-horse playoff team in the East!!

 

[BlazerCaravan]

That "road wins minus home losses" metric is interesting. Orlando, for instance, is 9 games below .500, yet their RW-HL is only -1, because they've played 20 road games to only 13 at home, and they actually have a better road record (8-12) than home record (4-9). This metric suggests that as their schedule evens out, their record might start to creep up.

I'm calling it now--the Magic are my dark-horse playoff team in the East!!

Nice. That is an interesting stat.

Related: Looking at the playoff matchups if the playoff were to start today, and I see that only one Eastern matchup has both teams above .500 in it (the 4/5 matchup). That's so pathetic.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

http://forwardcenter.net/power-rankings-ending-the-year-2014-at-the-top/

 

[PtldPlatypus]

That "road wins minus home losses" metric is interesting. Orlando, for instance, is 9 games below .500, yet their RW-HL is only -1, because they've played 20 road games to only 13 at home, and they actually have a better road record (8-12) than home record (4-9). This metric suggests that as their schedule evens out, their record might start to creep up.

I'm calling it now--the Magic are my dark-horse playoff team in the East!!

Just saw that the (then 12-21) Magic beat the (then 14-17) Heat, in Miami. Orlando's RW-HL is now 0, while the Heat are now -4. This metric is going to be my new obsession for the next little while...