The East: I am ready to state boldly that the East, after a long, dark decade in the wilderness, no longer will be the NBA's doormat. In fact, I am projecting that Eastern teams will win six games
more than Western teams this season, which would be a huge turnaround from a 2007-08 season that saw eight Western teams win at least 50 games.
Why such a big shift? Let us count the ways:
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Stars shifting. Elton Brand went from west to east, making one potentially decent team subpar out West and making one average Eastern team suddenly look very, very good. Meanwhile, Miami essentially adds a superstar in
Dwyane Wade because he's fully healed, and the Heat should improve from league doormat to something in the general vicinity of average.
•
Trades. At the deadline last season, the West traded
Shawn Marion and Devin Harris for Shaq and
Jason Kidd. Great deal in 2000; not so much in 2008. Several lesser players went east, too, in salary dumps (Mike Bibby,
Wally Szczerbiak,
Delonte West) without any comparable talents going east to west.
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Injuries. Manu Ginobili and
Monta Ellis both will miss big chunks of the season, hurting the West. In the East,
Gilbert Arenas is likely to do the same, but because he didn't play last year either, it doesn't knock the East down any from where it was.
•
Coaches. You can make a fairly convincing argument that the three least-effective coaches were in the East last season -- Larry Krystkowiak, Isiah Thomas and Sam Vincent. Not only were all three sent packing, but each was replaced by a coach with an established track record. Scott Skiles, Mike D'Antoni and Larry Brown will help teams in Milwaukee, New York and Charlotte get off the mat.
•
Age. The Western powers are getting up in years and starting to show their cracks, particularly the trinity of Phoenix, San Antonio and Dallas. The three of them could end up dropping 25 wins from the West's total.
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Extremes. At the very top and very bottom, the East rules. Boston, obviously, is the reigning champ, and Detroit had the league's second-best record last season. Meanwhile, I'm projecting every Eastern team to win at least 27 games; rebuilding Western teams in Memphis, Oklahoma City and Sacramento all figure to do worse.
All told, the difference probably won't completely evaporate at the playoff-qualifying level -- I'm projecting Denver to miss the playoffs with 41 wins while Charlotte will make it with 40. But on a conference versus conference basis, I expect things to be pretty close to a draw, and for the first time in eons, it might even tilt to the East's advantage.
