as for the OP of this thread, I'll take a stab at figuring it out, and I'll probably fuck it up, but that's never stopped me before (last column is next season):
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keep in mind the salary cap is projected to be 121M
the inclusive total is 92M. But that includes the full Bledsoe salary. His guarantee is 3.9M. Deduct that and Portland is sitting at 76.6M. The other variable is Hart. I do not believe Portland has any intention of waiving Hart; he's a Billups type of player. But if they did waive Hart, they could hypothetically drop their cap 63-64M
then, the Blazers have to deal with cap-holds:
CJ Elleby $1,966,970
Jusuf Nurkic $18,000,000
Anfernee Simons $11,816,454
Ben McLemore $1,766,970
Dennis Smith 1766970
Joe Ingles $21,000,000
obviously, you can toss out Ingles. Portland would immediately renounce if a need to arose. The cap-holds for Elleby, McLemore, and Smith total 5.5M. I don't know how many of the three Portland will bring back. I think Elleby and Smith are the most useful
that leaves Nurkic and Simons sitting at a combined 30M. If the Blazers are bringing both back, I'd like to hope that their combined first year salaries won't exceed their combined cap-holds. So then, the Blazers would be somewhere in the 95-96M range if they keep Nurk, Simons, and one of the minimum salary guys. But since they'd only have 10 players, they'd absorb 2 roster charges and be in 97-98M range
then, you have the two first round picks, Portland's and the Pels.
They currently sit at #8 & #9. But the after-lottery average of those is actually 7 & 8. No matter, if you go by the first year salaries of this season's 8th and 9th picks and increase the amounts by the same ratio of the increase in the salary cap, the combined salaries of the 8th & 9th picks will be around 10.5M. But you can now deduct those two roster charges and it's 8.5M
that pushes Portland's guaranteed cap to the 105-107M range. So, at that point, 14-16M in cap-space
BUT, there's one final consideration, and that's the two TPE's the Blazers created. 20.8M and 7.3M. That wipes out Portland's cap space. Further, I think a good argument can be made that for a small market team like Portland, those TPE's may have more value than cap-space
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now, if you want to maximize cap-space, then first, you'd have to go back in the process and waive Hart; then waive the minimum salary player you kept. That would create another 15M in space. But that would add back two roster charges.
Meaning the Blazers could have 27-29M in space. But they would have to renounce both TPE's to create that space. And a couple of exceptions I didn't list were the MLE and BAE. They'd both have to be renounced as well
now, one possible significant variable is Nurkic. I think he probably wants to return. But if he has a notion that Portland might trade Dame, he could seriously investigate options with other teams. If you deduct Nurkic from the equation (while adding a roster charge), suddenly that 27-29M in cap-space becomes 44-46M in cap-space. That would theoretically make Portland a player. The only single FA 'worth' a max deal may be Zach LaVine. I'm only looking at UFA's because I think there would be way too much speculative risk targeting an RFA. I don't see anybody else on the free agent list I'd consider worth sacrificing the TPE's and MLE's for as well as Hart
Dame-LaVine-Ant would be a real dynamic back court, but the Blazers would be investing more than 80% of the cap in 3 guards. I doubt LaVine would consider Portland, But maybe he would as I read that Dame and he became friends on the Olympic team. If LaVine did sign, and if Ant continued to build his value, I think the Blazers would have to seriously consider using Ant in a S&T. They have to solve the BYC differential riddle, but they might be able to leverage a pretty good forward from some team
all of this could change around the draft of course. The New Orleans pick might not convey. Or the Blazers could use that 21M TPE and one of the first round picks to land Jeremai Grant. Cronin seems to have a hard-on for Grant for some strange reason. If the Blazers used that TPE around the draft, they very likely have little cap-space next season
another thought I just had: if the Blazers abandon any cap-space dreams and keep the TPE's, they might have to restrict their MLE to just the tax-MLE so they wouldn't get hard-capped
sorry for the TLDR novel. Too much caffeine. I probably missed something significant
