Is the presidential race tightening?

Welcome to our community

Be a part of something great, join today!

Register Log in

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
It seems to me that the elections have gotten closer toward election day in the past several elections. More people pay attention, and people do change their minds even standing in line at the polling place.
 
For his latest trick, Matt Drudge is touting the results of an AP-Yahoo poll that shows a two-point race between Obama and McCain.



You may never have heard of the AP-Yahoo poll before. This is for good reason, since a look at the fine print reveals that it's not really intended for its horse race numbers (the AP uses a separate agency, GfK, for those).

For one thing, the poll is not timely. It entered the field on October 3 -- two weeks ago -- and left the field on October 13, which was this Monday.

For another thing, it's an internet-based poll:

The survey was conducted using the web-enabled KnowledgePanelSM, a probability-based Panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. Initially, participants are chosen scientifically by a random selection of telephone numbers. Persons in selected households are then invited by telephone to participate in the webenabled KnowledgePanelSM. For those who agree to participate, but do not already have Internet access, Knowledge Networks provides at no cost an Internet appliance and Internet service connection. People who already have computers and Internet service are permitted to participate using their own equipment. Panelists then receive unique log-in information for accessing surveys online, and then are sent emails three to four times a month inviting them to participate in research.

For a third thing, it has no likely voter screen, and the horse race question does not even appear to have a registered voter screen ... it's a poll of all adults.

Go, Drudge! Go!
Click to expand...

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/bad-spin-watch-drudge-touts-weeks-old.html
 
The impact of Wednesday night's debate is hard to gauge given the tracking polls that are out so far. McCain moved up in the Research 2000 and Battleground polls. Obama moved up in Diageo/Hotline. Zogby, Gallup and Rasmussen were essentially unchanged. IBD/TIPP hasn't published yet.

The best number for McCain comes from the daily sample in the Research 2000 tracking poll, which showed McCain down by just 6 points in interviewing conducted yesterday. I say 'just' because the R2K poll has generally had pretty good numbers for Obama and it's been a couple of weeks since McCain was as close as 6 points. Small sample size caveats apply.

On the other hand, it appears to me from analyzing the cross-tabs in the Rasmussen debate poll, that Obama had quite a strong day in Rasmussen's tracking yesterday, winning the daily sample by 9-10 points. If I'm right, then Obama's number in the Rasmussen poll is liable to improve over the weekend.
Click to expand...

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/busy-busy-busy.html
 
I saw some internals from some swing states that have McCain getting 22% of the African American vote. The tightening of the polls could just be blacks messing around with the pollsters.
 
The race may be tightening, but we all know that the popular vote is irrelevant. What IS relevant is whether the popular vote in Obama-leaning states are gradually shifting towards McCain. It's possible that the numbers are being skewed by McCain just increasing his lead in states like Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Wyoming, Utah, etc. It looks like Obama has roughly 250 electoral votes all but wrapped up. To win, McCain will have to win nearly all of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, Colorado, Minnesota, and Maine. Pennsylvania is still listed as "strong Obama," but the polls cited are a couple of days old by now.

It isn't impossible, but it is a hill to climb. If he acted like himself, like he did at that charity dinner, he would have a much better chance, IMO.
 
if the race isn't close do people watch as much election coverage and check all the different sources they use for election news? my guess would be no. so of course the race is going to be "close". in reality i don't think this race has really been "close" at any point.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top