It's the 2026 Off-Season Now (1 Viewer)

[RR7]

first, I may not be understanding the extension rules, so keep that in mind

Deni's current contract does not have a team option or a player option. So he has to complete his current deal before and extension kicks in. So that means the 2028-29 season. You're talking about having cap-space this summer but I'd imagine Deni and his agent would want to set the parameters of his extension to the cap in 2028-29. That season, the projection is for the salary cap to be 206M. Deni would be eligible for a 30% max deal. That would set his base salary at around 62M.

Your two trades only create about 28M in cap space. Even if Deni's 2028 extension was locked into this summers salary cap, Deni's base salary would be 50M. You're 22M short

I don't know why this keeps getting revisited. Even if Deni remained a role player, the odds of Portland creating enough cap-space to give him an extension were extremely low. Now that he's an all-star, there's no chance. He will be UFA in 2028

Deni's deal would be similar to what Utah did with Lauri. Renegotiate and extend. If we have cap space, we renegotiate the last year of the deal to a much larger #, and then can extend based off of the higher #, not his current salary. So say we had 28 million in cap space this season, and he was only 1 year remaining...
Being SUPER generic, Deni makes 13 million this off-season/next season. If we had 28 million in CA space created, we could renegotiate and add that amount to his current deal. So now he's up to 41 million. That gets him a starting salary of 49 on his new contract. Then 53, 57, 61. So the breaking Shams news is we sign Deni to a 5 year, 261 million dollar extension, with 248 million in "new money".

 

[blazerkor]

first, I may not be understanding the extension rules, so keep that in mind

Deni's current contract does not have a team option or a player option. So he has to complete his current deal before and extension kicks in. So that means the 2028-29 season. You're talking about having cap-space this summer but I'd imagine Deni and his agent would want to set the parameters of his extension to the cap in 2028-29. That season, the projection is for the salary cap to be 206M. Deni would be eligible for a 30% max deal. That would set his base salary at around 62M.

Your two trades only create about 28M in cap space. Even if Deni's 2028 extension was locked into this summers salary cap, Deni's base salary would be 50M. You're 22M short

I don't know why this keeps getting revisited. Even if Deni remained a role player, the odds of Portland creating enough cap-space to give him an extension were extremely low. Now that he's an all-star, there's no chance. He will be UFA in 2028

Got it. Well if I'm Joe I would look to move Deni then. I wouldn't sell low on him but I'd be very open to dealing him. Can't have LaMarcus all over again. I love Deni's attitude and he says he wants to be here long term a lot but I don't think we could take that risk.

 

[HansenYang]

Deni's deal would be similar to what Utah did with Lauri. Renegotiate and extend. If we have cap space, we renegotiate the last year of the deal to a much larger #, and then can extend based off of the higher #, not his current salary. So say we had 28 million in cap space this season, and he was only 1 year remaining...
Being SUPER generic, Deni makes 13 million this off-season/next season. If we had 28 million in CA space created, we could renegotiate and add that amount to his current deal. So now he's up to 41 million. That gets him a starting salary of 49 on his new contract. Then 53, 57, 61. So the breaking Shams news is we sign Deni to a 5 year, 261 million dollar extension, with 248 million in "new money".

Correct. This is what Myles Turner did in Indiana (1/30/2023).

An extension has to add at least 1 year to the contract.

Instead of a 5-year deal, I think a 3 year deal is more likely. If Deni would otherwise make $60M in the '28-'29 season, Portland would only need to have ~$15M of cap space to extend Deni.

Season 26 27 28
Current $13.1M $11.8M
New Money $15M $18.3M $32.5M
Total $28M $30.2M $32.5M

This would give Portland some flexibility to extend Deni again prior to the '28-'29 season (and before becoming an UFA).

 

[Pinwheel1]

Got it. Well if I'm Joe I would look to move Deni then. I wouldn't sell low on him but I'd be very open to dealing him. Can't have LaMarcus all over again. I love Deni's attitude and he says he wants to be here long term a lot but I don't think we could take that risk.

I don't know about you, but I have been waiting for a good point forward on this team for a long time. There have been a lot of pretenders that did not pan out. So I am not trading him unless the return is really good, and by good, I mean another known young player entering his prime.....not a future draft pick that we have no idea where it will end up.

Deni has two years left that are guaranteed at a phenomenal price. Sure, he could walk after that, but so could the player we trade him for. I would not trade him at this point.

 

[wizenheimer]

Deni's deal would be similar to what Utah did with Lauri. Renegotiate and extend. If we have cap space, we renegotiate the last year of the deal to a much larger #, and then can extend based off of the higher #, not his current salary. So say we had 28 million in cap space this season, and he was only 1 year remaining...
Being SUPER generic, Deni makes 13 million this off-season/next season. If we had 28 million in CA space created, we could renegotiate and add that amount to his current deal. So now he's up to 41 million. That gets him a starting salary of 49 on his new contract. Then 53, 57, 61. So the breaking Shams news is we sign Deni to a 5 year, 261 million dollar extension, with 248 million in "new money".

Correct. This is what Myles Turner did in Indiana (1/30/2023).

An extension has to add at least 1 year to the contract.

Instead of a 5-year deal, I think a 3 year deal is more likely. If Deni would otherwise make $60M in the '28-'29 season, Portland would only need to have ~$15M of cap space to extend Deni.

Season 26 27 28
Current $13.1M $11.8M
New Money $15M $18.3M $32.5M
Total $28M $30.2M $32.5M

This would give Portland some flexibility to extend Deni again prior to the '28-'29 season (and before becoming an UFA).

ok...I see what the mechanism would be

I'm not sure why Deni would be willing to punt things down the road. If he's going to get a 60M base salary in 2028. Then, without an extension, over the 3 seasons he's making 85M. Under the extension plan you outline he makes 89M. Granted, 4M more is not peanuts

but then both Deni and the Blazers are back in the same situation. Unless Portland somehow creates cap-space, again, the most Deni could make re-signing with the Blazers in 2029 is 45M. That's when his salary could be 65M

I guess I don't see what the threat is. No decent team will have 60M in cap-space in 2028. And I'd doubt Deni would sign with a bottom dweller. Portland can max Deni in 2028 while giving him 8% step raises. And that July, the contracts of Dame, Holiday , and Grant will be gone so the Blazers will have lots of flexibility

 

[HansenYang]

but then both Deni and the Blazers are back in the same situation. Unless Portland somehow creates cap-space, again, the most Deni could make re-signing with the Blazers in 2029 is 45M. That's when his salary could be 65M

A few things:
1) under this scenario, Portland could re-sign Deni to a max contract (if deserved) after the '28-29 season when he becomes an UFA.
a) If they try to extend his contract prior to becoming a UFA (say Summer '28) - then you are correct about the $45M being the most he could extend for.... unless Portland has cap space.
b) as you mentioned, Portland will likely have a lot of CAP space in Summer '28 to be able to also give Deni a pay bump above the $45M (again if he deserves it).

Other reasons why it makes sense to try and extend Deni this summer:
2) Extending Deni this summer shows a lot of good will toward him as a player/teammate. (IMO, this is a big deal -> and likely a factor in the ability for Portland to retain him long term).
3) Deni locks in additional cash in-case of injury / fluke season.
4) Portland gets an additional year to evaluate / decide how to build the roster
5) Deni's contract would actually be easier to trade (if Portland desired) if it's valued at $30-40M instead of $13-$15M. It's tough for Portland to get adequate compensation in a trade with the salary basis so low.
6) There's very little downside for either party.

 

[Cugel]

great stream. fuckin aye

 

[wizenheimer]

A few things:
1) under this scenario, Portland could re-sign Deni to a max contract (if deserved) after the '28-29 season when he becomes an UFA.
a) If they try to extend his contract prior to becoming a UFA (say Summer '28) - then you are correct about the $45M being the most he could extend for.... unless Portland has cap space.
b) as you mentioned, Portland will likely have a lot of CAP space in Summer '28 to be able to also give Deni a pay bump above the $45M (again if he deserves it).

Other reasons why it makes sense to try and extend Deni this summer:
2) Extending Deni this summer shows a lot of good will toward him as a player/teammate. (IMO, this is a big deal -> and likely a factor in the ability for Portland to retain him long term).
3) Deni locks in additional cash in-case of injury / fluke season.
4) Portland gets an additional year to evaluate / decide how to build the roster
5) Deni's contract would actually be easier to trade (if Portland desired) if it's valued at $30-40M instead of $13-$15M. It's tough for Portland to get adequate compensation in a trade with the salary basis so low.
6) There's very little downside for either party.

again....I don't see the urgency to create enough cap-space to make a difference for Deni

and of course, the Lakers are not going to trade Vanderbilt for Grant, even if Lebron leaves....which I don't believe he will. And there's no reason for Detroit to trade for Jrue. I think creating 15-20M in cap-space is mostly fantasy

Blazers will be 5M over the cap next season; and that's if they let both Timelord and Thybulle walk. They could get really close to the cap if they waive the non-guaranteed deals of Krejci and Sissoko, but that's only 10 players so roster charges would put them 3M over.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Anything here?

View attachment 84739

 

[Mediocre Man]

I think it’s safe to assume a couple of things

At least one of Jrue or Scoot gets moved

One of Grant, Camara or Deni will be traded

I think this will be a pretty active offseason. His first year in Carolina, they made 8 major trades and several free agent signings. Also really interested to see DumDum and Sharpe. Sharpe doesn’t appear to be a DumDum guy. On the surface anyway

 

[Pinwheel1]

I think it’s safe to assume a couple of things

At least one of Jrue or Scoot gets moved

One of Grant, Camara or Deni will be traded

I think this will be a pretty active offseason. His first year in Carolina, they made 8 major trades and several free agent signings. Also really interested to see DumDum and Sharpe. Sharpe doesn’t appear to be a DumDum guy. On the surface anyway

If the guy is as cheap as everyone says, then the players he will want to trade are Jrue and Grant. I am OK with that, but I am not so sure it is probable without taking back a bad contract. So that leaves Scoot plus either Camara and Deni, all three are just entering their prime and on pretty good contracts. And on the surface, Tom's kind of guys.

As for Sharpe, I hope they give him one more chance to stay healthy and show what he can do. IMO, he needs to spend the summer with Scoot and add about 5-7 lbs of upper body muscle while working on his game. I am ok trading him for someone like Scottie Barnes (along with Grant and a pick), although then we get worse at 3pt shooting instead of better.....but long term I would still do it.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I think it’s safe to assume a couple of things

At least one of Jrue or Scoot gets moved

One of Grant, Camara or Deni will be traded

I think this will be a pretty active offseason. His first year in Carolina, they made 8 major trades and several free agent signings. Also really interested to see DumDum and Sharpe. Sharpe doesn’t appear to be a DumDum guy. On the surface anyway

Grant is untradeable. (Although I really wish this guy was right...) The question is: will Mr. Cheapo be prepared to eat Grant's salary? At this point subtraction is addition.

 

[blazerkor]

Grant is untradeable. (Although I really wish this guy was right...) The question is: will Mr. Cheapo be prepared to eat Grant's salary? At this point subtraction is addition.

I think with all of the draft assets we've built up we could see something like the worse of our 2028 and the Magic's 2028 FRP attached to Jerami to move off of his contract or maybe the worst of ours, Boston's or Milwaukee's 2029 FRP. It might be worth that kind of a first round asset to move the team forward.

I also have read and heard from several places that there are a handful of teams very interested in Jrue.

If the team (management and ownership) are still high on Scoot, Shaedon, Deni and Tou, I could see us either dumping Jerami for a smaller contract and getting what we can of value that fits our young core in return for Jrue or using one or both of the guys' salaries along with a bunch of draft assets to make a big splash.

 

[LayneStaley]

Just saw Cowerd made the all-rookie team. 14/6/3 and 34% from 3

Hansen was a stupid decision.

 

[KingSpeed]

Just saw Cowerd made the all-rookie team. 14/6/3 and 34% from 3

Hansen was a stupid decision.

Michael Dickerson made All Rookie in 1999. Dirk Nowitzki didn’t. Who would you have rather drafted?

 

[inconceivable]

Michael Dickerson made All Rookie in 1999. Dirk Nowitzki didn’t. Who would you have rather drafted?

I remember Tyreke Evans had a sensational rookie season with the Kings, winning ROY in 2009. It was the peak of his career.

 

[KingSpeed]

I remember Tyreke Evans had a sensational rookie season with the Kings, winning ROY in 2009. It was the peak of his career.

Beat out Curry and Harden

 

[SheedSoNasty]

I remember Tyreke Evans had a sensational rookie season with the Kings, winning ROY in 2009. It was the peak of his career.

And Michael Carter-Williams

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Michael Dickerson made All Rookie in 1999. Dirk Nowitzki didn’t. Who would you have rather drafted?

Cedric Coward.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

Cedric Coward.

Exactly. We can only wish that Yang gets even close to as good of a player as Coward. I just don't see it in the NBA at all.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

ESPN talking about free agents:

9. Robert Williams III​

The deal I'd offer: Three years, $42 million. The first year of $13.3 million is guaranteed, but the second and third have no salary protection. If Williams plays more than 50 games next season, his salary in 2027-28 would become guaranteed. The same protection applies to the 2028-29 season, but Williams has to reach 50 games in 2027-28 to qualify. In eight NBA seasons, Williams has played more than 59 games twice -- this season and in 2021-22 with the Boston Celtics.

Best fits: Portland, Boston, Atlanta, LA Clippers

A stretch of games this season, including the first round against San Antonio, provided a reminder why Williams was named All-Defensive in 2022.

In the first three games of the series, Williams held the Spurs to 7-of-20 (35%) as the contesting defender, according to ESPN Research. The Trail Blazers outscored San Antonio by five points with Williams on the court and were outscored by 27 when he was off. During the first round, Williams averaged 9.3 points, 7.5 rebounds and 1.5 blocks while playing more minutes than starter Donovan Clingan. Williams is eligible to sign up to a four-year, $87 million extension before June 30

 

[wizenheimer]

ESPN talking about free agents:

9. Robert Williams III​

The deal I'd offer: Three years, $42 million. The first year of $13.3 million is guaranteed, but the second and third have no salary protection. If Williams plays more than 50 games next season, his salary in 2027-28 would become guaranteed. The same protection applies to the 2028-29 season, but Williams has to reach 50 games in 2027-28 to qualify. In eight NBA seasons, Williams has played more than 59 games twice -- this season and in 2021-22 with the Boston Celtics.

Best fits: Portland, Boston, Atlanta, LA Clippers

A stretch of games this season, including the first round against San Antonio, provided a reminder why Williams was named All-Defensive in 2022.

In the first three games of the series, Williams held the Spurs to 7-of-20 (35%) as the contesting defender, according to ESPN Research. The Trail Blazers outscored San Antonio by five points with Williams on the court and were outscored by 27 when he was off. During the first round, Williams averaged 9.3 points, 7.5 rebounds and 1.5 blocks while playing more minutes than starter Donovan Clingan. Williams is eligible to sign up to a four-year, $87 million extension before June 30

that 50 game threshold is just too low. Maybe it's realistic considering Timelord's history, but the Blazers would be foolish to sign a backup C while accepting that he could miss 30 games a season

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

that 50 game threshold is just too low. Maybe it's realistic considering Timelord's history, but the Blazers would be foolish to sign a backup C while accepting that he could miss 30 games a season

Especially when we missed on taking Coward to draft a backup center.

 

[LayneStaley]

Michael Dickerson made All Rookie in 1999. Dirk Nowitzki didn’t. Who would you have rather drafted?

lol 1999 was when Yang might have been a good pick.

 

[wizenheimer]

Especially when we missed on taking Coward to draft a backup center.

if it was a backup C, obviously Queen would have been the choice

or, the Blazers could have made the trade with the Pelicans landing the 8th pick next month and also used the 23rd pick to draft a C, other than Yang, like Danny Wolf (27th pick), Ryan Kalbrenner (34th), or, maybe best of all Maxime Raynaud (42nd) who averaged 13 & 8 (17 & 10 per/36) and is a very mobile big man not locked into drop coverage

the Blazers could have had a much better 2025 and 2026 draft result if they weren't so damn stuck on Yang

 

[Everything Beagle]

I don't know about you, but I have been waiting for a good point forward on this team for a long time. There have been a lot of pretenders that did not pan out. So I am not trading him unless the return is really good, and by good, I mean another known young player entering his prime.....not a future draft pick that we have no idea where it will end up.

Deni has two years left that are guaranteed at a phenomenal price. Sure, he could walk after that, but so could the player we trade him for. I would not trade him at this point.

I think you have to trade Deni before the rest of the league figures out his back problems aren’t going away. Though the two year deal might be a blessing in disguise because by then he will be completely used up and losing him won’t be as painful as it might have seemed in February.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

if it was a backup C, obviously Queen would have been the choice

Joan Beringer

 

[Pinwheel1]

I think you have to trade Deni before the rest of the league figures out his back problems aren’t going away. Though the two year deal might be a blessing in disguise because by then he will be completely used up and losing him won’t be as painful as it might have seemed in February.

I guess I must have missed the report that discussed his diagnoses.

 

[Everything Beagle]

I guess I must have missed the report that discussed his diagnoses.

It’s just a hunch, but I’m pretty sure Deni will never again be as effective as he was last season. We saw his best season.

 

[Pinwheel1]

It’s just a hunch, but I’m pretty sure Deni will never again be as effective as he was last season. We saw his best season.

I think he should be a secondary playmaker on any team going forward, so statistically, you might be right. But that doesn't mean we have seen the best of him. Better pacing and lowering exertion during certain stretches of a game can heavily benefit him by delaying fatigue, preserving 3pt shooting accuracy, and reducing the risk of injury.

But until we are actually told about the specifics of his injury, we have no clue. Yes, some back injuries never fully heal. Others are fine after a few months of rest.