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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...s-could-be-in-the-minority-for-years-to-come/
Why down-ballot Democrats could be in the minority for years to come
Some results are still coming in, but it looks as if in 2017, Republicans will continue to control up to 69 of 99 state legislative chambers. And controlling state legislative chambers is one of the keys to controlling government. Once a decade, in most states, lawmakers get to draw the very lines that elect state and congressional lawmakers.
...
Democrats are trying to outmaneuver Republicans by creating a redistricting-focused group — led by former U.S. attorney general Eric H. Holder Jr., backed by Obama and filled with some of the smartest minds in Democratic down-ballot politics — dedicated to winning back seats by 2020. (In 2014, Democrats launched Advantage 2020, a super PAC that hopes to raise $70 million to play exclusively in states where redistricting is on the line.)
But their efforts may come too late for this next redistricting battle. They have got only two election cycles — 2018, 2020 — to catch up before it is time to redraw the maps for the next 10 years. And Democrats are in such a big hole that it may take even more time to rebuild their majorities in state chambers, which means they could be locked out of the redistricting process in some key states for another decade.
The next U.S. Senate map is brutal for Democrats
November was a tough election cycle for Senate Republicans, who were defending 24 of the 34 seats up for grabs, many in states that Obama won twice.
It will basically be the reverse in 2018. Democrats are defending 10 seats in states that Trump won, sometimes by double-digit margins. Midterms are normally kind to the party not in power, but this map shows serious head winds for Democrats.
Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin III (W.Va.), Joe Donnelly (Ind.), Claire McCaskill (Mo.), Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.) and Jon Tester (Mont.) are running for reelection in states that voted for Trump over Clinton by 19 points or more. (In West Virginia, Trump won by 42 points.) If these Democratic-held seats and a few others fall to Republicans in 2018, it's possible the GOP's 52-seat majority becomes a 60-seat supermajority. At the very least, it looks likely Republicans will pick up a few seats.
More bad news for Democrats: Some political analysts think that if Republicans turn seats in red or red-leaning states, such as West Virginia, Indiana and Missouri, those seats could stay Republican for a long time. Especially if 2016's presidential election is any indication.
Why down-ballot Democrats could be in the minority for years to come
Some results are still coming in, but it looks as if in 2017, Republicans will continue to control up to 69 of 99 state legislative chambers. And controlling state legislative chambers is one of the keys to controlling government. Once a decade, in most states, lawmakers get to draw the very lines that elect state and congressional lawmakers.
...
Democrats are trying to outmaneuver Republicans by creating a redistricting-focused group — led by former U.S. attorney general Eric H. Holder Jr., backed by Obama and filled with some of the smartest minds in Democratic down-ballot politics — dedicated to winning back seats by 2020. (In 2014, Democrats launched Advantage 2020, a super PAC that hopes to raise $70 million to play exclusively in states where redistricting is on the line.)
But their efforts may come too late for this next redistricting battle. They have got only two election cycles — 2018, 2020 — to catch up before it is time to redraw the maps for the next 10 years. And Democrats are in such a big hole that it may take even more time to rebuild their majorities in state chambers, which means they could be locked out of the redistricting process in some key states for another decade.
The next U.S. Senate map is brutal for Democrats
November was a tough election cycle for Senate Republicans, who were defending 24 of the 34 seats up for grabs, many in states that Obama won twice.
It will basically be the reverse in 2018. Democrats are defending 10 seats in states that Trump won, sometimes by double-digit margins. Midterms are normally kind to the party not in power, but this map shows serious head winds for Democrats.
Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin III (W.Va.), Joe Donnelly (Ind.), Claire McCaskill (Mo.), Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.) and Jon Tester (Mont.) are running for reelection in states that voted for Trump over Clinton by 19 points or more. (In West Virginia, Trump won by 42 points.) If these Democratic-held seats and a few others fall to Republicans in 2018, it's possible the GOP's 52-seat majority becomes a 60-seat supermajority. At the very least, it looks likely Republicans will pick up a few seats.
More bad news for Democrats: Some political analysts think that if Republicans turn seats in red or red-leaning states, such as West Virginia, Indiana and Missouri, those seats could stay Republican for a long time. Especially if 2016's presidential election is any indication.