Keep Trevor Ariza

[Orion Bailey]

Great trade overall. Not only aRe his defensive instincts far superior, his offense and ball handling is safe Nd in the pocket. I used to cringe when Aminu or harkless would have a tip pass/turnover and then start dribbling the length of the court.
Ariza is in control and consistent. He seems to be bringing our team defense together. I hope we keep him for next year.

 

[mook]

So Ariza has played 6 games for the Blazers. He has two games with 21 points and averages 5 in the other four games. Which is the real Ariza? I am thinking the 21 were outliers and we should only expect the 5. I know he adds improvement on the defense end, but man can we get a third scorer please.

I think he may be like a better perimeter shooting Mo Harkless. Here's the comparison. When he's on, he's surprisingly good, and when he's not, eh, at least you have his defense.

Unlike Mo, he seems to space the floor well. At least so far. Interestingly, Ariza's 3 point FG% has a huge variability over his career. He shot .322 in Washington last year, .351 in Sac this year over 32 games, and .451 here in Portland over 10 games. He hit .407 for an entire season (2013-14). He's .351 for his career.

So he's also like Mo in that he's had good three point shooting years (Mo hit .415 three years ago) and bad ones (Mo hit .275 last year).

Right now it feels like we got Good Ariza.

 

[julius]

So Ariza has played 6 games for the Blazers. He has two games with 21 points and averages 5 in the other four games. Which is the real Ariza? I am thinking the 21 were outliers and we should only expect the 5. I know he adds improvement on the defense end, but man can we get a third scorer please.

It's kind of funny that this has stayed true to form for Ariza this year (as a Blazer). Scored 21 3 times, and averages 5 the rest of the time. Not complainin, just kind of funny.

 

[wizenheimer]

It's kind of funny that this has stayed true to form for Ariza this year (as a Blazer). Scored 21 3 times, and averages 5 the rest of the time. Not complainin, just kind of funny.

the biggest complaint, and the biggest flaw, in Harkless was his inconsistency. Well take a look at points-rebounds for Ariza as a Blazer:

21-6
7-4
21-6
2-2
6-1
5-3
7-8
2-3
21-10
7-3

I'm sorry, but that looks a lot like just about any 10 game stretch from Harkless. Maybe Ariza has a little higher ceiling and floor to his inconsistency; that I don't know. But at this point, Ariza is new to the Blazer equation, and by last season, just about everybody was on the 'familiarity-breed-contempt' bus for Harkless. Defensively, I think they are about the same although I think Harkless was a little better defensively against speeed

that said, I'm fine with Ariza coming back next season; in fact, Portland will probably need him as the starting SF. The only reason, IMO, not to guarantee his contract is if Portland makes a move(s) around the draft that requires Ariza to be waived for tax purposes

 

[lawai'a]

I think that with Dame and CJ and Melo expecting touches and shots that his scoring is more situational and them taking advantage of him within the offense. that and him stating frequently his just trying to fit in and compliment the existing hierarchy. he and Whiteside seem to fluctuate in their offense a lot.

 

[illmatic99]

He's a 35 yr old playing close to 40 mpg some of these nights while in his 16th season.

I feel like people forget this.

 

[julius]

the biggest complaint, and the biggest flaw, in Harkless was his inconsistency. Well take a look at points-rebounds for Ariza as a Blazer:

21-6
7-4
21-6
2-2
6-1
5-3
7-8
2-3
21-10
7-3

I'm sorry, but that looks a lot like just about any 10 game stretch from Harkless. Maybe Ariza has a little higher ceiling and floor to his inconsistency; that I don't know. But at this point, Ariza is new to the Blazer equation, and by last season, just about everybody was on the 'familiarity-breed-contempt' bus for Harkless. Defensively, I think they are about the same although I think Harkless was a little better defensively against speeed

that said, I'm fine with Ariza coming back next season; in fact, Portland will probably need him as the starting SF. The only reason, IMO, not to guarantee his contract is if Portland makes a move(s) around the draft that requires Ariza to be waived for tax purposes

Harkless's issue wasn't just inconsistency, it's that after several years in Portland he was either missing games due to an injury AND inconsistent.

Ariza is in his what, 900th season, so it's kind of expected.

Both of them are bench players who were shoe-horned into a starting role .

 

[lawai'a]

the biggest complaint, and the biggest flaw, in Harkless was his inconsistency. Well take a look at points-rebounds for Ariza as a Blazer:

21-6
7-4
21-6
2-2
6-1
5-3
7-8
2-3
21-10
7-3

I'm sorry, but that looks a lot like just about any 10 game stretch from Harkless. Maybe Ariza has a little higher ceiling and floor to his inconsistency; that I don't know. But at this point, Ariza is new to the Blazer equation, and by last season, just about everybody was on the 'familiarity-breed-contempt' bus for Harkless. Defensively, I think they are about the same although I think Harkless was a little better defensively against speeed

that said, I'm fine with Ariza coming back next season; in fact, Portland will probably need him as the starting SF. The only reason, IMO, not to guarantee his contract is if Portland makes a move(s) around the draft that requires Ariza to be waived for tax purposes

in 2015-16 harkless scored 20 or more 1 time scored 0-9 55 times
16-17 20 0r more 3 times 0-9 37 times (his best season with blazers averaged 10.0/game)
17-18 20 or more 2 times 0-9 46 times
18-19 20 or more 2 times 0-9 40 times

 

[PtldPlatypus]

in 2015-16 harkless scored 20 or more 1 time scored 0-9 55 times
16-17 20 0r more 3 times 0-9 37 times (his best season with blazers averaged 10.0/game)
17-18 20 or more 2 times 0-9 46 times
18-19 20 or more 2 times 0-9 40 times

So what you're saying is that by the end of the season, Ariza will likely have broken 20 in a Blazers uniform more times than Harkless did in his entire tenure?

 

[lawai'a]

So what you're saying is that by the end of the season, Ariza will likely have broken 20 in a Blazers uniform more times than Harkless did in his entire tenure?

seems as likely as not ?

 

[wizenheimer]

in 2015-16 harkless scored 20 or more 1 time scored 0-9 55 times
16-17 20 0r more 3 times 0-9 37 times (his best season with blazers averaged 10.0/game)
17-18 20 or more 2 times 0-9 46 times
18-19 20 or more 2 times 0-9 40 times

I said Ariza's ceiling and floor may be a little higher than Harkless

but I don't think it matters. If you compare Ariza's first 10 game with Portland to Mo's first season with Portland their numbers are pretty similar. And Ariza started off really hot; he's at career shooting highs in his short Blazer stint and his norms indicate those highs are unsustainable. Besides that, two of those 3 Twenty point games you cite for Ariza came in his first 3 games as a Blazer. In his last 7 games he's averaging 7 points and 2 rebounds. He's had three 21 point games but here's what he did immediately after: 21>7; 21>2; 21>7. High variance. I'd much rather have a guy averaging 13>8 as the variance rather than 21>5. But it's probably not a big issue

 

[lawai'a]

I said Ariza's ceiling and floor may be a little higher than Harkless

but I don't think it matters. If you compare Ariza's first 10 game with Portland to Mo's first season with Portland their numbers are pretty similar. And Ariza started off really hot; he's at career shooting highs in his short Blazer stint and his norms indicate those highs are unsustainable. Besides that, two of those 3 Twenty point games you cite for Ariza came in his first 3 games as a Blazer. In his last 7 games he's averaging 7 points and 2 rebounds. He's had three 21 point games but here's what he did immediately after: 21>7; 21>2; 21>7. High variance. I'd much rather have a guy averaging 13>8 as the variance rather than 21>5. But it's probably not a big issue

the variance is pretty unpredictable because it is only a ten game sample size
mo never averaged more than 10.0 pts/game ever in his carreer nor more than 4.5 rebs./game
over the last 5 seasons tough:
ariza on 747makes/2009 attempts is shooting 37.2% from the 3. mo on 216makes/645 attempts shot 33.5% from distance. personally i will take ariza's obvious willingness to take and make three's over mo's reluctance.

 

[B-Roy]

The eye test tells me Ariza is a better defender than both Harkless and Aminu were.

 

[jlprk]

Ariza is better than Anthony. Ariza finishes plays.

Anthony has moves, but the Stotts system doesn't enable them without fancy dribbling, so Anthony either misses or has the ball stolen.

Both are better than Zach Collins, who is Skal-quality. Collins and Skal are so thin, they have to out-IQ opponents, but are too inexperienced to have that BBIQ.

Ariza is our best forward, so keep him.

 

[BlazerWookee]

Ugh.

 

[AldoTrapani]

Meh none of these options is it chief

 

[GDiama]

Ariza won't keep shooting 50%, he is more of a 42-43 guy and last seasons he has been even below 40%. So comparing his offensive output to Moe's right now won't really lead anywhere. And Moe was not playing that many minutes.

I'm not saying he is not better than Moe, but we didn't strike gold with Ariza. He has already lost steps and he will only get older.