The NBA season is long and arduous, especially for teams aiming to go deep into the postseason. In that light, you might think a snubbed potential All-Star would look at the bright side: a few days to rest and plot your revenge on those who left you out.
Portland's
Damian Lillardmight well be out for revenge, but he
doesn't seem to be relishing the chance to rest.
The disrespect card is a wrongheaded response in most such situations because it implies that there was some sort of collective effort or a personal grudge to deny him recognition. In reality, Lillard is respected across the league for his on- and off-court demeanor, his poise under pressure and for his work ethic. But you can't blame him for feeling the way he does, because Lillard's absence in New York might represent the mother of All-Star omissions.
Lillard is much closer to being a bona fide MVP candidate than he is to being a non-All-Star. And if Lillard makes good on his pledge to ramp up his level of play even more, and the Blazers finish strong, you never know what might happen.
As of now, Lillard is not the league MVP. Voters don't consult the WARP leaderboard on my computer (yet) but it has been a fascinating season on top of those standings. The WARP82 column -- which projects the full-season WARP for a player based on how many games he has missed and how many his team has left to play -- shows a virtual three-way tie for the league lead.
James Harden moved into first last week and remains on top with a WARP82 of 21.4. Meanwhile,
Anthony Davis and
Stephen Curry (both at 21.2) are right on Harden's heels, followed by
Chris Paul (17.4) and Lillard (14.9).
Lillard also ranks third in the league in clutch WARP and ninth in clutch winning percentage, though Davis, Harden and Curry all rank ahead of him in the latter measure. By RPM, Lillard is 13th, while Curry, Harden and Davis are the top three, just as they are in WARP82. For me, the combination of these measurements and Golden State's won-loss record marks Curry as the MVP front-runner, with Harden not too far behind. If Lillard is to mount an MVP push in reaction to his All-Star snub, he's going to have to have a huge finish -- just the kind he seems intent on having.
If Lillard somehow ends up winning the MVP award, he would be the first true non-All-Star to do so.
Karl Malone was the 1998-99 MVP, but the All-Star Game was canceled that season because of a lockout. Magic Johnson was selected in 1989, missed the game due to injury, and went on to become that season's MVP. But other than that, All-Star Game appearances have always been a first step for eventual MVPs. That tradition, and the possibility that Lillard could split MVP votes with teammate
LaMarcus Aldridge, probably means Lillard's MVP candidacy is a long shot at best.
The problem, of course, is who should have been left off the West roster to make room for Lillard. The fans and the coaches did a decent job of filling the rosters -- 17 of the top 21 in WARP at the time the reserves were announced made the squads.
DeMarcus Cousins since has been added as the injury replacement for
Kobe Bryant, a move that served the dual purpose of getting the only obvious non-All-Star off the West roster and making it 18 of 21 of the WARP leaders.
The lowest-ranked player still on the West roster is defending MVP
Kevin Durant, who as of Thursday was No. 38 in overall WARP and No. 23 in the conference. This is not a question of the quality of Durant's play. Of players with at least 20 games, Durant ranks fourth in winning percentage, behind Davis, Curry and Harden. It's not really Durant's fault that he has missed so many games. But if you hear the debate steer toward "how many games is enough?" -- you should realize it's the wrong debate. The more pertinent question is about accumulated value, which is where a bottom-line metric like WARP -- which is both quantitative and qualitative -- can help. That Durant ranked No. 38 despite getting in only 21 games by Thursday was certainly remarkable, but he still missed all those games.
Think of it like this: Durant has plied his .738 winning percentage to the Oklahoma City cause 22 times through Monday, with the Thunder going 14-8. That production has been absent for 26 games, during which the Thunder went just 10-16. Meanwhile, Lillard's .654 winning percentage has been there for Portland for all 48 of its games, and the Blazers are 32-16. Being there counts for a lot, or at least it should. Chances are Lillard is going to demonstrate that during the season's second half.
