I bolded the only guys that I saw as locks. I'd also rate Dragic ahead of Lillard at this point... he'll really have to turn it on to make it
STOMP
I'd agree with those three. You can probably lock in at least one "Grizzly" as well, even though it's anybody's guess who gets selected off of that squad at this point.
Out of those three, Gasol has been the most important to the team's success, although he's been putting up the numbers that usually go unappreciated in the All-Star selection process. Zach Randolph, on the other hand, is second in the NBA in rebounding and has been a double-double machine. Then you have Rudy Gay, who might not even be a top three player on his own team and whose stats are empty, but the All-Star nods tend to go to players who do things like lead their team in scoring and make highlight plays.
Whether it's Gasol, Randolph, Gay, or even two of the three, you can guarantee they'll be represented, which brings the lock count to at least four, therefore cutting the "open" spaces to three.
There's also the possibility of Lin's influence on the Chinese vote, which would cut the "open" spaces down to just two spots.
Duncan is averaging 19/10/3/2 on 54% FG in 31 mins. How the hell is he doing this after regressing the last few years? Thought he was done with the all star team, but his resurgence is mindboggling.
Man, the Spurs really are the league's enigma, but don't you love it? Maybe it's just because I'm in my mid-20's and grew up watching Tim Duncan, but it's hard for me not to root for a 15-year veteran putting up numbers like that, while leading his team to a 14-3 record in games he plays in.
To be fair he was pretty good last year too. His bouts with plantar fasciitis have subsided and he's generally healthy. Best PF ever so I'm not surprised he's dominant yet again
STOMP
That's another reason I've got to respect Duncan. I don't know if any of ya'll have had plantar fasciitis, but I got it in college, and it felt like I broke my heel. I was convinced I had a broken foot until I saw the doc, who said it was plantar faciitis from overuse, having played in the post on the circuit my whole life. I remember it being very painful and being on crutches for at least a month. My foot's completely fine now, but I haven't played competitively in a few years... I can only imagine how tough it was for Duncan to have to slowly heal and play through the lingering pain. Having that injury at a young age just sort of put the typical "nagging/old-age" NBA injuries into perspective for me.