Little comparison of Oden prior to MF and after

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RoyToy

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[video=youtube;K8fv810QfY8]

[video=youtube;R2sHjGyZ8aU]


Notice a little bit of a difference? It really struck as I watched the two clips just now. I'm talking comparing the first link to the 2nd play in the second link.
 
The difference is based on being fouled. On the second video if you pause at 26 seconds you can see Oden getting nailed on the shoulder right before he takes off. That of course will take some momentum off it. On the first video the guy goes to foul him but then backs off and doesnt touch him.

Doesn't seem to drastic a difference to me honestly.
 
You can't use such a small sample size and make such a general statement. Let it play out over the season AND THEN decide.

Picking and choosing one play before and one play after is pretty pointless.

Let the guy get back into full game shape before you assess.
 
If you're going to compare one play to another, at least do it right....

2nd video:
-He was running full speed on a fast break, had to slow down, catch the ball, get his footing, jump up and shoot, while getting fouled.
It's much harder for a big man to run a break and dunk it like that.

1st video:
-All he had to do was roll, catch a pass and go straight up uncontested.

Hardly similar if you factor in the obvious...
 
RoyToy said:
I forgot Greg Oden was perfect around here. My bad.
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He's far from perfect . . . if you look around, there's plenty of people doubting him.

What's not perfect is your comparison of pre/post MF. A couple of people have already pointed out the obvious differences in the two situations you've chosen to highlight - but even without that, you can't just pick two plays and say point blank, black and white what the pre/post MF Oden is. It's just not a large enough sample size.

If you want to wait through the season and make a collection of videos of his pre-MF days at OHIO vs. (what by your analysis would be) his less explosive self in various games throughout this season, your argument would carry more clout. Right now, you're just comparing two separate plays - with totally different situations. You might as well just take two plays from within ONE game and compare it . . . that's about how much sense it makes.
 
I never said that was what Oden is going to end up being. I was just making a little comparison. That's all it was. You guys have blown it way out of proportion.

Besides, I don't even need video to tell you he doesn't have his athleticism back right now. That's just a given. He needs to continue to work hard if he wants it back though, because it's obvious it's not there. The only point of the video was to show what he looked like given the ball at the same spot on the floor.
 
RoyToy said:
I never said that was what Oden is going to end up being. I was just making a little comparison. That's all it was. You guys have blown it way out of proportion.

Besides, I don't even need video to tell you he doesn't have his athleticism back right now. That's just a given. He needs to continue to work hard if he wants it back though, because it's obvious it's not there. The only point of the video was to show what he looked like given the ball at the same spot on the floor.
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Who's blowing it out of proportion? You're the one that stated above that you see a "huge" difference. Getting the ball on the same spot means nothing if in one clip you have a clear path to the basket (result = monster dunk) and in the other clip, you get impeded and subsequently fouled (result = no monster dunk).

If somehow I can find clips showing the flip-flop opposite, would I then go ahead and make a thread about how Oden's vastly improved, more explosive, etc etc AFTER surgery? No, because it's still just two instances in a game, season and career.

The only point I'm trying to get across to you is: increase your sample size and maybe people will agree with you???
 
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I was waiting for an Oden thread after producing only one point tonight but I'm going to have to agree with the OP on this one. Watching Oden *so far* and comparing it to the limited sample size of him I saw in summer league two years ago + highlights of him in college, there is no doubt in my mind that Oden has lost a significant amount of explosiveness. Whether or not this will come back, I have no idea. I really hope it does. However, I'd also like to point out that his dunk during 3:06 of the second video is a better comparison to his dunk in the first video.

EDIT: No one has been passing it to him when he rolls after the pick this season (like Sergio did in video 1)! He's open and he waves his arms like he wants it, but no one is finding him.
 
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Miksaid, I don't think anyone here thinks he's MORE explosive after surgery. And pretty much everyone expected him to struggle at first and have to work to get back to playing shape. But your point basically highlights the flaw in the OP's logic - there are SEVERAL dunks in the GSW clip that he could've used for the comparison. Instead, the one that was pointed to was picked for the location on the court where he got the ball yet doesn't factor in the fact that he got fouled in the second clip, which probably threw him off balance and off course - and not allowing him to dunk like in the first clip.
 
RoyToy said:
I never said that was what Oden is going to end up being. I was just making a little comparison. That's all it was. You guys have blown it way out of proportion.

Besides, I don't even need video to tell you he doesn't have his athleticism back right now. That's just a given. He needs to continue to work hard if he wants it back though, because it's obvious it's not there. The only point of the video was to show what he looked like given the ball at the same spot on the floor.
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Nope. What was blown out of proportion was your silly comparison. 2 completely dissimilar plays don't make for a comparison of anything except the plays themselves. It's completely possible to find two plays from Michael Jordan at 23 and Michael Jordan at 39 that make 39 year old Michael Jordan look like a stud and the young MJ look like a putz.

Terrible comparison. You got called on it. Deal with it.
 
The difference I see is in how fluid he was in the 1st one. He doesn't seem quite like that, but it will get there. As he drops some more weight also.
 
Miksaid said:
EDIT: No one has been passing it to him when he rolls after the pick this season (like Sergio did in video 1)! He's open and he waves his arms like he wants it, but no one is finding him.
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That is so true. I have been to 4 games so far this season and it actually happens quite often. Coach HAS to start calling his number more and setting plays for him.
 
That first vid was an eye opener for me. I forgot how explosive he was. He certainly does not have that now. I kinda forgot that, not only has he not played in a year, but he's coming back from the hardest surgery possible.

He's going to need a year to season before he cooks again.
 
He certainly is not as explosive as he was. But neither was Amare Stoudemire. I personally don't think Amare is the athlete he used to be before the surgery, but he's still a very productive player, and he's a lot better now than he was in his first season after the surgery.

Greg's major problem seems to me to be more one of nerves and being really down on himself. He never seems happy on the court and he's fumbling and bumbling and all the time seems to be muttering to himself like he can't believe how clumsy he's being. He needs to lighten up in all senses of the words.
 
I was curious to see how much Amare dropped off the year after his surgery so I ran a PER-like rating on him over his career. It appears that the surgery did not affect him that much: He was at about 85% of where he should have been in the season following his surgery.

I'd say the majority of Greg's "problem" is that it's his first season coupled with the surgery and some over-inflated expectations and the added pressure that goes with that, especially since Greg is not a refined offensive player to begin with.

Statistically-speaking, Oden is playing about as well as Amare played in his first two seasons. On a per 48 minute basis, Oden so far has a about a 35% more rebounds, 2x the block shots, 50% more assists and is even slighly more efficient offensively but with about 80% as much point production. What's killing him is: High turnover rate relative to his scoring attempts, very high rate of fouling, mediocre scoring efficiency and below-his-ability FT%. Lots of rookies have those problems. I'd say he has loads of upside to come. Amare did not break out until his 3rd season.

PER-Like Rating Per 48 Minutes

Amare Stoudamire
02-03 10.5
03-04 12.3
04-05 18.6
05-06 INJURED
06-07 16.5
07-08 20.6
08-09 15.1

Gred Oden
09-09 11.6

This rating does not take into account game-pace inflates Amare's numbers relative to Oden.
 
He obviously doesn't have the explosiveness that he did, why would he?

No need to jump the OP about that.

The good thing is that if you watch the second video entirely, you can see how good he can be WITHOUT his explosiveness. When he gets it back, which I think he will, watch out NBA.
 
Miksaid said:
I was waiting for an Oden thread after producing only one point tonight but I'm going to have to agree with the OP on this one. Watching Oden *so far* and comparing it to the limited sample size of him I saw in summer league two years ago + highlights of him in college, there is no doubt in my mind that Oden has lost a significant amount of explosiveness. Whether or not this will come back, I have no idea. I really hope it does. However, I'd also like to point out that his dunk during 3:06 of the second video is a better comparison to his dunk in the first video.

EDIT: No one has been passing it to him when he rolls after the pick this season (like Sergio did in video 1)! He's open and he waves his arms like he wants it, but no one is finding him.
Click to expand...

I wasn't try to criticize Oden at all. All I was doing was taking a similar play and comparing the two. But any time you say something negative about a player around here, people like to go crazy about it. It's funny.

As far as producing goes for his career...I'm not so sure he's going to be the dominant center that he was hyped to be. I'd say the same thing even without him having MF surgery. He just doesn't have the offensive skill set of a Patrick Ewing or Hakeem Olajuwon.

And yes, sure it's a little unfair to compare Oden to those players. BUT, at the same time, Oden was the most hyped center prospect to come out in decades. I don't think it is ridiculous at all to compare him to those players a little bit, since that's what he was hyped to be.

Not saying Oden can't get there...but he has a LONG way to go.
 
The only thing I'm noticing about GO is that he doesn't really roll after the screen. If he does, it's a real delayed roll after teams have pretty much completed their rotation. Do you think he's being instructed to do this, isn't comfortable make that movement, or is saving his energy?
 
RoyToy said:
Besides, I don't even need video to tell you he doesn't have his athleticism back right now. That's just a given. He needs to continue to work hard if he wants it back though, because it's obvious it's not there.
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I think it's a fair comparison. Oden doesn't look athletic at all right now. He's sluggish and slow getting around the court, and he doesn't seem to be exploding off the floor for blocked shots and dunks like he used to. This may be more a result of his conditioning and/or extra weight this year, and not the surgery, but there is a marked difference, to be sure. I'm hoping he returns to his old form by the end of the season.
 
I'm all on board if you want to say Oden's playing like crap right now (I disagree, but I won't argue too vehemently). But to say he's never going to be Ewing or Olajuwon, because he was hyped and hasn't showed it in his first 10 games? Short-sighted and Chicken Little-ish, imo.

Seems like people want to take an observation (Oden's not playing well, looks like he has lost explosiveness, Batum's playing well, etc) and try to extrapolate a career out of 10-15 games. If you wanted to do that with Joel or Travis (I'm not even sure I'd do it with Roy or LMA yet), then I could kind of see it, b/c there's a track record that goes back half a decade. For 10-15 games? Seriously?
 
I thought that in last nights game he started out with a hop to his step and seemed to have a lot more agility. As the game progressed he seemed to regress. If that is true he probably was getting tired and the old body just did not want to preform.

g
 
Dwight Howard got 11 and 11 as a rookie, didn't have any post moves, didn't win ROY, and didn't come off not playing bball for a hole year like Oden.

Greg will probably get better stats than that his rookie year. He is somewhat of an impact player still, it just doesn't all show up on the stat sheet.

He has played about 10 NBA games and is getting like 8, 7 and 1.5. That really isn't bad as he is just rounding into shape and dealing with some nerves. He has already shown flashes where he had a 4 games span of averaging like 15 and 11. ANd while his offense looks raw and his off. stats reflect it, we are pretty much treating him like Przybilla and not including him in the offense very much at all.

I agree with the person who said he has a long way to go before his game is compared with the greats, but I do think he will get there eventually. He has ALL of the physical tools. He has some fundamentals to work on along with some tape watching. The biggest leap a player ever makes in the NBa is usually between their 1st and 2nd season (this would be Greg's first).
 
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Main thing I notice from the video is he's lumbering a bit right now compare to the first, but I was actually encourage watching the second video.

I have been concern that he hasn't got the stats the last few games that he was getting, but I think it's mainly because we don't want to throw off the rest of the team getting Oden involved. There is no rush we have plenty of time and just having Oden in for his D helps the team a lot. Meanwhile he'll get in better and better shape and get more involved on O as time goes along. Also, I'm really excited about how well he passes. I'm surprise how many assists he gets a game!
 
mgb said:
Main thing I notice from the video is he's lumbering a bit right now compare to the first, but I was actually encourage watching the second video.

I have been concern that he hasn't got the stats the last few games that he was getting, but I think it's mainly because we don't want to throw off the rest of the team getting Oden involved. There is no rush we have plenty of time and just having Oden in for his D helps the team a lot. Meanwhile he'll get in better and better shape and get more involved on O as time goes along. Also, I'm really excited about how well he passes. I'm surprise how many assists he gets a game!
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Yeah, he's moving a lot slower this year. I remember back in Summer League last year that some were saying that he's faster than Aldridge running the floor. So far he's no faster than Yao or Shawn Bradley running the length of the court.

I still don't think we'll see a 100% Oden until March or maybe even next season.
 
Shooter said:
I think it's a fair comparison. Oden doesn't look athletic at all right now. He's sluggish and slow getting around the court, and he doesn't seem to be exploding off the floor for blocked shots and dunks like he used to. This may be more a result of his conditioning and/or extra weight this year, and not the surgery, but there is a marked difference, to be sure. I'm hoping he returns to his old form by the end of the season.
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Spot on. This surgery usually takes two years before a player is back to to full strength, but Oden has put on a lot of weight, so he has to get back into shape. And it's not that he's in good shape, just not game shape. He's just in really bad shape and overweight, he's not even close to worrying about game shape. Stop killing the Big Mac's big fella.
 
I'm far from an expert on the subject, but it occurs to me that the type of weight lifting and physical training he's been doing the past year to rehab from the surgery may also have something to do with slowing him down and making him more lumbering and less agile. You can train for strength, size, agility, quickness, or whatever. Playing ball all his life had probably maximized his quickness and agility for basketball. The strength training and pool resistence training and the like he's been focusing on may well have slowed him down. If so, he'll get it back -- by next year.

No worries.

:cheers:
 
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