Looking At This Season As Work In Progress

[Blazers Roy]

In the last few weeks i have changed my perspective on things. I'm no longer sticking to my past beliefs about this team.
I am now looking at every month as a new month with improved players who grew from the month before.

What did we expect? that a new team will show us their final form in November?

So Aminu made his mistakes on drives to the basket and improved, he is now looking to pass when he dribbles in there. CJ looked soft as hell in November but now he's in his player's jersey for the most part and even Dame is trusting his teammates more instead of launching hopeless 30footers.

These guys deserve to be in the playoffs now, judge them based on the current form of the team.



And no, i'm not changing my opinion on this if the Blazers have a negative win-loss record in February.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

82-game pre-season.

 

[Blazers Roy]

82-game pre-season.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

1. I can see that many of the individual players are improving.
2. I can see that the team is player better collectively (as a unit).
3. The team is playoff relevant, and it's fun to actually check the standings and see how other teams around us are doing.
4. The team has a fun style of play.
5. Things can go wrong during a game and we can still win (Lillard didn't hit an outside shot in the whole game against Milwaukee, and we still won).
6. The team plays hard.

However, things aren't perfect:

1. We could easily go on another 5 game losing streak.
2. Vonleh is improved a lot, but we still haven't seen his 3 point shot, or his post game. He's invisible out there sometimes. He hasn't reached the comfort level I would like him to have yet.
3. Biebs - when he's on, we're a much better team. I will concede that he's an intelligent player overall, but his indecision leads to cringingly poor decisions, which drive me (and others) nuts. He's a bit slow-footed, but he has learned to go "straight-up", so he's definitely improved.
4. Plums is a great passer in the high post, but he'd be better if he actually looked at the basket in that position.
5. All of the players have things to work on (our guards could become better defenders, for example).
   
6. We still have a poor record against +.500 teams.
7. We're still in our infancy. A 9-16 road record is fine for a borderline playoff team, but not for a bona fide playoff team.
8. We still don't have a big that Stotts is comfortable putting in the post.
9. I am very comfortable with our "Big 2" + awesome role players. However, I'd like a "Big 3" - NO has work to do, and I don't mean for another "good" player", we need one more amazing player.

 

[Nikolokolus]

January feels a whole lot like a mirage when I see who we've been beating. Only the OKC game stands out as impressive, so I'm not sure how instructive it is to look at this team on a month by month basis, when there's so much variance in terms of home and away splits, quality of opponent, etc.

I see the next two months being brutal. If they win 10+ games I'll be impressed.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

January feels a whole lot like a mirage when I see who we've been beating. Only the OKC game stands out as impressive, so I'm not sure how instructive it is to look at this team on a month by month basis, when there's so much variance in terms of home and away splits, quality of opponent, etc.

I see the next two months being brutal. If they win 10+ games I'll be impressed.

Considering your preseason prediction, if you're not impressed now, you never will be.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Considering your preseason prediction, if you're not impressed now, you never will be.

So, what you're saying is that you don't believe the Blazers will win 10 games over the next two months?

 

[Wizard Mentor]

So, what you're saying is that you don't believe the Blazers will win 10 games over the next two months?

Not at all, and I don't know how you got that out of what I said.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Not at all, and I don't know how you got that out of what I said.

He said he'll be impressed if they win 10 games; you said he'll never be impressed. Ergo...

 

[Nikolokolus]

Considering your preseason prediction, if you're not impressed now, you never will be.

I think the Blazers will probably win about 6-7 games more than I predicted. Which is probably close to within one standard deviation. is that really worth being impressed by? They still don't defend very well, their ceiling still doesn't look high enough to be anything other than a "nice" team that reliably competes for an 8th or 7th seed every year. The only thing that could have impressed me this year is seeing Damian turn into a lockdown defender, or Meyers becoming a rugged interior player, or Vonleh taking huge strides and morphing into a 15/10 guy. a few more wins here or there in a rebuilding season aren't that important to me in the grand scheme of things.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I think the Blazers will probably win about 6-7 games more than I predicted. Which is probably close to within one standard deviation. is that really worth being impressed by? They still don't defend very well, their ceiling still doesn't look high enough to be anything other than a "nice" team that reliably competes for an 8th or 7th seed every year. The only thing that could have impressed me this year is seeing Damian turn into a lockdown defender, or Meyers becoming a rugged interior player, or Vonleh taking huge strides and morphing into a 15/10 guy. a few more wins here or there in a rebuilding season aren't that important to me in the grand scheme of things.

"championship or bust" !?!?!

 

[riverman]

I think the Blazers will probably win about 6-7 games more than I predicted. Which is probably close to within one standard deviation. is that really worth being impressed by? They still don't defend very well, their ceiling still doesn't look high enough to be anything other than a "nice" team that reliably competes for an 8th or 7th seed every year. The only thing that could have impressed me this year is seeing Damian turn into a lockdown defender, or Meyers becoming a rugged interior player, or Vonleh taking huge strides and morphing into a 15/10 guy. a few more wins here or there in a rebuilding season aren't that important to me in the grand scheme of things.

If you just forget the win loss record the thing to be impressed about is how quickly they are putting it together and how much improvement they've shown..I never expected playoff by any stretch this season but these guys apparently didn't get that memo...and man it's been fun watching them go after it.

 

[Nikolokolus]

"championship or bust" !?!?!

Bingo!

 

[riverman]

At this point I'd say conference finals or bust...championship....ask me in a year or two

 

[SlyPokerDog]

I ran out of milk today so I ate my cereal with half n half and water mixed together. Not the same but not bad, kinda like this season.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Bingo!

Yeah but Nik who in the draft is getting us any closer to a championship?

 

[riverman]

I ran out of milk today so I ate my cereal with half n half and water mixed together. Not the same but not bad, kinda like this season.

Dogs will woof down anything in a bowl

 

[Nikolokolus]

Yeah but Nik who in the draft is getting us any closer to a championship?

I haven't watched a lot of college basketball, but it seems as though there are always 3-5 guys every year that turn into a really good/great player.

Making the playoffs and losing a draft pick in rebuilding year guarantees no shot at such a player. Off-hand I think Ben Simmons, Skal Labissiere, Dragan Bender all have a shot at being special.

 

[Draco]

Yeah I agree with Aminu. He's been making better decisions. He was shooting lights out at the start of the season but that was just a small sample size fluke. He's still been hitting enough threes to keep defenses honest and with his skills on the other end of the court that makes him a hell of a player.

I think at the start of the year we were catching opponents by surprise, they thought we could be a 19 win team and didn't prep seriously. We also had young guys who were in mid season form from months of working out while veteran opposing teams were playing into shape.

Some of those early season road trips were brutal though and the losses really piled up.

Lillard seeing the team win when he sat out was great for everyone. Gave teammates confidence and Lillard the realization he can just fit in instead of always trying to take over.

I think this team has actually played relatively even throughout the year more than is the norm for most teams. Most of the win/loss discrepancies have been from the schedule. But I do agree there are some nice small improvements that have been made. Very encouraging year so far. I predicted 32 wins but said at the time I wouldn't be shocked if we got 10 more or 10 less. CJ has been the biggest positive from the season. Stotts coaching has been excellent as well.

 

[riverman]

Where I work my night shifts, they watch a ton of college ball so for the first time in years I've seen quite a few complete games...what looks like a star in college is probably going to look a lot different in the NBA....Nolan Smith looked great in college...Adam Morrison looked great in college....my advice..don't hold your breath about a needle mover in this draft

 

[Draco]

I haven't watched a lot of college basketball, but it seems as though there are always 3-5 guys every year that turn into a really good/great player.

Making the playoffs and losing a draft pick in rebuilding year guarantees no shot at such a player. Off-hand I think Ben Simmons, Skal Labissiere, Dragan Bender all have a shot at being special.

There are also 3-5 lottery picks that amount to jack squat.

Sure a draft pick would be a nice asset but its not the be all end all. Its far more critical how the 15 players already on the roster develop than one roll of the dice on an unknown.

 

[Draco]

Where I work my night shifts, they watch a ton of college ball so for the first time in years I've seen quite a few complete games...what looks like a star in college is probably going to look a lot different in the NBA....Nolan Smith looked great in college...Adam Morrison looked great in college....my advice..don't hold your breath about a needle mover in this draft

Skal and Ingram look so far from being impact NBA players to me. Talking 5+ years before they are legit every day starters. Yeah could be all stars someday but thats an awful long time to wait. Look at CJ; its taken him 3 years after college and he was a 4 year collegiate player. Thats 6 more years than these other prospects will have. CJ has a hell of a killer work ethic as well.

By the time a player such as Ingram is in his prime all of our current rostered players will be on the decline. Really would need to think about trading away Lillard and doing a 76ers rebuild if we are going to focus our offseason on adding that type of youth. Its a strategy that makes sense for a few franchises; but not the Blazers with the amount and age of talent we have.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Skal and Ingram look so far from being impact NBA players to me. Talking 5+ years before they are legit every day starters. Yeah could be all stars someday but thats an awful long time to wait. Look at CJ; its taken him 3 years after college and he was a 4 year collegiate player. Thats 6 more years than these other prospects will have. CJ has a hell of a killer work ethic as well.

By the time a player such as Ingram is in his prime all of our current rostered players will be on the decline. Really would need to think about trading away Lillard and doing a 76ers rebuild if we are going to focus our offseason on adding that type of youth. Its a strategy that makes sense for a few franchises; but not the Blazers with the amount and age of talent we have.

Great post. You nailed exactly what I have been trying to say the last few weeks. It is like having a strong farm system in baseball. The good teams know you have to build through the draft, but it doesn't mean they are going to help anytime soon. We could use this year's draft pick, no doubt. But I have been watching these kids and there are a lot of Jabari Parker's and D'Angelo Russell's out there, instead of Kevin Durant or Anthony Davis.

 

[Natebishop3]

Great post. You nailed exactly what I have been trying to say the last few weeks. It is like having a strong farm system in baseball. The good teams know you have to build through the draft, but it doesn't mean they are going to help anytime soon. We could use this year's draft pick, no doubt. But I have been watching these kids and there are a lot of Jabari Parker's and D'Angelo Russell's out there, instead of Kevin Durant or Anthony Davis.

That's the issue... all these guys leave after one year and they're clearly not ready to contribute. Conversely, you look at Dame or CJ and they were ready to contribute right out of the game. It's amazing what four years of college will do for you.

 

[BBert]

Where I work my night shifts, they watch a ton of college ball so for the first time in years I've seen quite a few complete games...what looks like a star in college is probably going to look a lot different in the NBA....Nolan Smith looked great in college...Adam Morrison looked great in college....my advice..don't hold your breath about a needle mover in this draft

Wait...you get paid to sit around snacking and watching college basketball?

 

[riverman]

Wait...you get paid to sit around snacking and watching college basketball?

I take care of an 83 year old man who is completely paralyzed ...he watches college sports all day and night..huge Duck fan. Part of the job is upon arrival, feeding him snacks and talking about whatever game he's into....after that, the work begins for real...

 

[PtldPlatypus]

That's the issue... all these guys leave after one year and they're clearly not ready to contribute. Conversely, you look at Dame or CJ and they were ready to contribute right out of the game. It's amazing what four years of college will do for you.

Yep--for this year, I would say that Buddy Hield, Denzel Valentine, Taurean Prince, or maybe Caris Levert all look to be decent first-round prospects that would be likely to contribute next year. I wouldn't shake a stick at any of them.

 

[noknobs]

I think the Blazers will probably win about 6-7 games more than I predicted. Which is probably close to within one standard deviation. is that really worth being impressed by? They still don't defend very well, their ceiling still doesn't look high enough to be anything other than a "nice" team that reliably competes for an 8th or 7th seed every year...

When you say 'every year' what are you talking about? Aldridge held us hostage during the most active part of free agency, but Olshey did a great job in retooling on the fly. Considering we lost 80% of the best starting five in basketball when healthy, it's amazing they're even competitive this year.

But whether they're competitive or not, Olshey's plan was obviously to collect a lot of tradable pieces and flexibility and hopefully limit the rebuild to one year. I have no doubt this upcoming trade deadline and offseason are going to be active for the Blazers and the team will look quite different next year, with or without the pick. What I'm trying to say is I don't understand how you've come to the conclusion that they will be stuck in mediocrity for years to come? At least give him one full year to completely rebuild the core (save Lillard) before you start giving the team an arbitrary ceiling.

For what it's worth I think we'll keep the pick. I agree with you on the notion that January is likely a mirage. The fact remains their last 8 wins have been against teams who are below .500 and currently in the lottery. For this team, winning five games in a row against anyone is great, but it's not surprising they're going to look improved during the easiest part of their schedule. Actually it's pretty predictable.

 

[BonesJones]

Yep--for this year, I would say that Buddy Hield, Denzel Valentine, Taurean Prince, or maybe Caris Levert all look to be decent first-round prospects that would be likely to contribute next year. I wouldn't shake a stick at any of them.

Taurean Prince should be a top 7 or 8 pick in this draft. Probably the best defensive player in the draft, insanely high motor, a great shooter, and has no real offensive weaknesses. He's about the same size as Draymond Green and his scouting report is almost identical to Greens when he was coming out. So conceivably he could play the stretch 4 Draymond Green role. If not, I could definitely see him being a DeMarre Carrol type of SF.

3 and D players are always drafted to low. DeMarre Carroll, Jimmy Butler, Wes Matthews, Draymond Green, Khris Middleton, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, Allen Crabbe... And I think Taurean Prince will be the next name on that list.

 

[MickZagger]

Kris Dunn has star potential. This draft is a little deeper than most think.