Making the team marginally better? Or winning a Championship?

[Idog1976]

Am I the only one here with a singular vision of someone in a Blazers uniform hoisting the Larry O'Brien trophy in the next ten years? I can't believe all the posts I see about adding marginal utility to this team and/or gutting our one hope of winning a ring. I'm sorry you can hate it, you can be pissed about it, but the fact is our SOLE hope of winning a ring during the Stern Wet Dream Team era is if we build this team around Oden. Fucking period. Anything else is a just rearranging deck chairs on the titanic.

Sure, we could trade Oden + whoever for Paul, but really unless we are trading Oden for Brook Lopez or Dwight Howard we're just fucking our chances. I mean if you are going to trade Oden you better be trading him to the Timber wolves for unprotected picks from 2015 to 2020 attempting to circumvent the LeBron era.

Honestly does anyone think there is ANY reasonable trade we can do that sends Oden out and results in a championship? I will say right now that NO FUCKING WAY do we win a ring if you trade Oden for Paul so please give me another scenario.

Look probably more then ANYONE on this board I've been horribly, soul crushingly devastated by all of Oden's injuries. I've been a GO backer since day one and have been horrified and dismayed by his injuries.

Let's be honest though. Do you want to win a ring or get marginally better?

I don't know maybe you'd be satisfied by a WCF exit or an 0 - 4 sweep by the Heat if LA implodes? I don't want a finals appearance I had plenty of those with Clyde, I don't want the WCF we've won that and been 7 minutes away just 10 years ago.

I WANT A GOD DAMNED RING.

That means you have to hope, pray, sell your soul, sacrifice goats and whatever else you do to put good energy into Oden getting better and build around him.

The people who constantly knock Oden (Nik I know you kid so I don't mean you) or talk about trading him clearly don't give a fuck about winning during the Heat era. Period.

Please tell me why I'm wrong and what trades you can come up centered around Oden that get us a ring. If you have totally given up on Oden I propose it's time to blow up the team for future unprotected firsts starting in about 2015.

 

[BrianFromWA]

You can't have back-to-back firsts traded to you from another team. So it'd have to be the 2015/17/19/21 first from Minny. And actually, you can't trade for more than 5 years in advance, so it'd be the 11/13/15 or 12/14/16 firsts.
Other than that, I agree.

 

[Idog1976]

You can't have back-to-back firsts traded to you from another team. So it'd have to be the 2015/17/19/21 first from Minny.
Other than that, I agree.

LOL, right on. I forgot about that.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I've been thinking something similar (but not quite as passionately. Repped, BTW, for true fanaticism). I always hear how stars win in this league, and we don't have any (except Roy). It makes me think that we're wasting our time going after "safe" players like Miller and Matthews, and drafting similarly (Cunningham, Johnson, Babbitt...). If I were a GM, I think would do nothing but go after high-ceiling, high-potential guys until I've unearthed 2 or 3 who become legit all-stars. I'm tired of "high BBIQ guys"--I want some guys with fire who want to destroy the opponent, and have the athleticism (if perhaps not yet the skill) to do it.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Idog,

Didn't you just create a trade post wherein we send out Andre Miller, Bayless and other parts and all we end up with is Mike Conley and Anderson Verejao?

#justsayin

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Conley and Varejao are just waiting for the right supporting cast to make their championship run; clearly LeBron wasn't enough for Big V.

 

[Mediocre Man]

LA sent shit out and got Pau Gasol. So "realistic" is a broad term.

I am not in favor of trading Oden unless it brings a superstar type to Portland. Howard, Paul, Williams etc. I am not in favor of sending him out for Parker, Ellis, Harris type. The league is built around superstars, and adding one is our only real hope of winning. If Oden stays healthy this year, he is still not a superstar. Like someone said in another thread, 2 very goods don't equal superstar

 

[Idog1976]

Idog,

Didn't you just create a trade post wherein we send out Andre Miller, Bayless and other parts and all we end up with is Mike Conley and Anderson Verejao?

#justsayin

You're right about that. I meant meant the marginal utility of trading GO for Paul. Title wasn't my best effort. What I mean is you might have a SAFER shot to mid-tier playoff team by trading GO, but no shot at a title.

 

[Idog1976]

Conley and Varejao are just waiting for the right supporting cast to make their championship run; clearly LeBron wasn't enough for Big V.

LOL, ok you guys nailed me on that one, see my response to Nik above.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

You're right about that. I meant meant the marginal utility of trading GO for Paul. Title wasn't my best effort. What I mean is you might have a SAFER shot to mid-tier playoff team by trading GO, but no shot at a title.

That makes more sense, and is short enough for me to read. I agree, too; our title hopes rest on having a healthy GO beast alongside Roy and two more good/very good players.

 

[Idog1976]

LA sent shit out and got Pau Gasol. So "realistic" is a broad term.

I am not in favor of trading Oden unless it brings a superstar type to Portland. Howard, Paul, Williams etc. I am not in favor of sending him out for Parker, Ellis, Harris type. The league is built around superstars, and adding one is our only real hope of winning. If Oden stays healthy this year, he is still not a superstar. Like someone said in another thread, 2 very goods don't equal superstar

I'm saying that GO is your second superstar his PER of 23.1 was good for 8th in the league before he went down and he was getting BETTER each game:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/odengr01.html

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/holl.../insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics

He was a hair's breadth below CP3 and ABOVE both Pau Gasol and Carmelo Anthony both roundly considered Superstars. His usage rate was by FAR the lowest in the top 10 meaning more touches and his PER could easily improve. He also played the least minutes of the top 10 by a large margin. His offensive rebound rate and TS% LEAD THE LEAGUE.

It's all about health with him.

 

[RR7]

I've been thinking something similar (but not quite as passionately. Repped, BTW, for true fanaticism). I always hear how stars win in this league, and we don't have any (except Roy). It makes me think that we're wasting our time going after "safe" players like Miller and Matthews, and drafting similarly (Cunningham, Johnson, Babbitt...). If I were a GM, I think would do nothing but go after high-ceiling, high-potential guys until I've unearthed 2 or 3 who become legit all-stars. I'm tired of "high BBIQ guys"--I want some guys with fire who want to destroy the opponent, and have the athleticism (if perhaps not yet the skill) to do it.

Yeah. Guys like Telfaire, Outlaw, Webster, Bayless. Or, guys we passed on like Tyrus Thomas, Rudy Gay, Anthony Randolph. We have high potential/ceilin gguys iN Roy, Aldridge, Oden, Bayless and Batum. When you get good pieces like that, sometimes it works to fill in guys around them, as opposed to constantly cycling through guys who might not get much time on the team.


Also, how many guys truly "become' superstars after a few years, but who were drafted on high potential primarily?

 

[BlazerCaravan]

PER is harder to maintain as your usage rate goes up; therefore, the big test is getting GO to a usage rate around 18% while maintaining his 24 PER. IF he can do BOTH successfully, he will be a Superstar, period.

 

[B-Roy]

You're right about that. I meant meant the marginal utility of trading GO for Paul. Title wasn't my best effort. What I mean is you might have a SAFER shot to mid-tier playoff team by trading GO, but no shot at a title.

LOL @ MARGINAL UTILITY OF TRADING GO FOR PAUL.

You're trading a player who's been injured for 2/3 of his career for the BEST PG IN THE LEAGUE, AND YOU CALL IT MARGINAL UTILITY.

I would usually never say this, but you're so full of shit.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I'm saying that GO is your second superstar his PER of 23.1 was good for 8th in the league before he went down and he was getting BETTER each game:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/odengr01.html

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/holl.../insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics

He was a hair's breadth below CP3 and ABOVE both Pau Gasol and Carmelo Anthony both roundly considered Superstars.

It's all about health with him.

When he played, he was a gome changer....no doubt. I'm not sure the league looked at him as a superstar though, and IMO, that's what you need. You need marketabe players for the NBA to promote. 10/8.5 isn't going to get it done. 16/10 won't either. That is basically Troy Murphy/Joakim Noah numbers. Not superstar numbers. While Oden would have MUCH more inpact on the game as those two, the league needs to think he is worth the calls and hype in order to get anywhere

 

[Idog1976]

LOL @ MARGINAL UTILITY OF TRADING GO FOR PAUL.

You're trading a player who's been injured for 2/3 of his career for the BEST PG IN THE LEAGUE, AND YOU CALL IT MARGINAL UTILITY.

I would usually never say this, but you're so full of shit.

But it IS marginal utility! I already explained it's a gamble going with GO, and the safe play is Paul. Which one wins you a ring? Paul would IF we had a dominant big man. I mean if you're going for Paul you better trade LMA for Favors or drug the GM of Orlando or New Jersey for Lopez/Howard. Because otherwise you are pissing in the wind.

My ENTIRE point is that Paul makes us better without question, maybe he takes us to the Finals, but we would be fucking pistol whipped by the Heat. Our only prayer IMO of beating the Heat or LA is a healthy GO barring some miraculous Pau Gasol type trade for Lopez or Howard.

I guess you could roll the dice on getting Marc Gasol (possible) next to Paul. I will tell you one thing. No fucking way we win a ring with Paul LMA and Roy. Not even a chance. We might win ONE or TWO games versus the Heat, but I doubt we get past LA's length anyways.

 

[Idog1976]

When he played, he was a gome changer....no doubt. I'm not sure the league looked at him as a superstar though, and IMO, that's what you need. You need marketabe players for the NBA to promote. 10/8.5 isn't going to get it done. 16/10 won't either. That is basically Troy Murphy/Joakim Noah numbers. Not superstar numbers. While Oden would have MUCH more inpact on the game as those two, the league needs to think he is worth the calls and hype in order to get anywhere

I absolutely agree with this. Sadly Roy burned that bridge when he talked shit about the officials in the high after his 52 point game. I think Oden who was hyped quite a bit during the draft is our best shot at that as well. I also agree that his numbers didn't look superstarish I think that is as much to do with how Nate was using him as anything. Also minutes of course.

 

[B-Roy]

But it IS marginal utility! I already explained it's a gamble going with GO, and the safe play is Paul. Which one wins you a ring? Paul would IF we had a dominant big man. I mean if you're going for Paul you better trade LMA for Favors or drug the GM of Orlando or New Jersey for Lopez/Howard. Because otherwise you are pissing in the wind.

My ENTIRE point is that Paul makes us better without question, maybe he takes us to the Finals, but we would be fucking pistol whipped by the Heat. Our only prayer IMO of beating the Heat or LA is a healthy GO barring some miraculous Pau Gasol type trade for Lopez or Howard.

I guess you could roll the dice on getting Marc Gasol (possible) next to Paul. I will tell you one thing. No fucking way we win a ring with Paul LMA and Roy. Not even a chance. We might win ONE or TWO games versus the Heat, but I doubt we get past LA's length anyways.

Well if you say so, it must be true!!!!!!!!!!

Forget that Paul was runner up for MVP two seasons ago. Forget that Paul had a 30.0 PER in 08-09.

No, let's put all our eggs into hoping Oden stays healthy AND develops into a superstar!

Yeah, that's MUCH SAFER than acquiring the best PG in the league because he'd only make our team MARGINALLY better.

Yeah, I'm done. I can't take you seriously anymore. Especially since you also say Favors would be a game changing big without ever watching him play a game in the NBA.

Oh by the way, the Celtics took the Lakers to 7 games when their best big was a Garnett who, right now, is no better than Aldridge. They lost that game 7 by 4 points, and didn't even have Perkins. You're not going to convince me that getting Paul wouldn't turn us into a perennial contender that has a good shot to win titles every year.

 

[RR7]

I absolutely agree with this. Sadly Roy burned that bridge when he talked shit about the officials in the high after his 52 point game.

Yet Roy got to the line slightly more this past season than the season prior, while taking less shots inside. Don't think the 52 point game affected anything with Roy.

 

[Idog1976]

Well if you say so, it must be true!!!!!!!!!!

Forget that Paul was runner up for MVP two seasons ago. Forget that Paul had a 30.0 PER in 08-09.

No, let's put all our eggs into hoping Oden stays healthy AND develops into a superstar!

Yeah, that's MUCH SAFER than acquiring the best PG in the league because he'd only make our team MARGINALLY better.

Yeah, I'm done. I can't take you seriously anymore. Especially since you also say Favors would be a game changing big without ever watching play a game in the NBA.

I don't know Favors can be anymore then you know he CAN'T be.

By the way I said Paul was a safer bet and would probably take us to the Finals did you even read what I wrote?

From everytime you've replied to my posts I've never seen you respond with much of anything but scorn so it's not much of a loss that you "no longer take me seriously".

I was saying Roll the dice with Favors. The only guys I KNOW could help us like GO is Howard and Lopez. Pretty sure they aren't going anywhere.

You really think Paul/Roy/LMA has us beat LA and Miami in a 7 game series?

That's the entire point here bro. It's about having a CHANCE to win a title not a certain improvement in record with no chance to win.

 

[B-Roy]

I don't know Favors can be. By the way I said Paul was a safer bet and would probably take us to the Finals did you even read what I wrote?

From everytime you've replied to my posts I've never seen you respond with much of anything but scorn so it's not much of a loss that you "no longer take me seriously". I was saying Roll the dice with Favors. The only guys I KNOW could help us like GO is Howard and Lopez. Pretty sure they aren't going anywhere.

You really think Paul/Roy/LMA has us beat LA and Miami in a 7 game series? That's the entire point here bro. It's about having a CHANCE to win a title not a certain improvement in record but no chance to win.

Well according to you, Miami won't even make the finals because they'll have to get past Orlando and Howard no? Howard would just DOMINATE the Heat and send LeBron home crying so we don't even need to worry about them.

And besides, if you're conceding that Paul takes us to the finals, I'll take that over Oden 10 times out of 10. (How is that a marginal upgrade anyways, we didn't even win a series the past two years) I don't care what you say, making the finals gives you a good shot of actually winning a title every time, so I'd rather take that shot than wait for Oden to develop into Bill Russell. Or whoever it is you expect him to be. So please, stop acting like Oden guarantee's us a championship.

 

[Idog1976]

Yet Roy got to the line slightly more this past season than the season prior, while taking less shots inside. Don't think the 52 point game affected anything with Roy.

Well I barely watched the second half of the season as not long after Oden went down my father was diagnosed with terminal cancer and then died in April. I missed the second half so my mistake there about Roy's FTA's going down. I know they went down massively for a LONG time after that statement.

 

[Idog1976]

Well according to you, Miami won't even make the finals because they'll have to get past Orlando and Howard no? Howard would just DOMINATE the Heat and send LeBron home crying so we don't even need to worry about them.

OMFG dude!

NO, I'm saying you need a dominant big to have a chance. They have the 2nd best 2 guard, the best 3 and maybe the best PF in the game. So you give up those positions as lost. You HAVE to dominate at the 5 and have a good defender/rebounder at the 4. Probably a legion of bigs really due to fouls.

I'm not saying Orlando or NJN (if you REALLY want to misconstrue what I wrote) will block the Heat. Jesus Christ. I meant Howard with Roy/LMA/Paul. You aren't even trying to get what I'm writing.

 

[B-Roy]

OMFG dude!

NO, I'm saying you need a dominant big to have a chance. I'm not saying Orlando or NJN (if you REALLY want to misconstrue what I wrote) will block the Heat. Jesus Christ. I meant Howard with Roy/LMA/Paul. You aren't even trying to get what I'm writing.

Well Orlando has a chance doesn't it?

And this is why I can't take you seriously. You're acting like certain events are predetermined and there's nothing that can change them. Who the hell knows if Miami will make the finals??? That's why you play the damn games. The Cavs went into the playoffs the past two years with the best record in the league and didn't even make the finals, yet a LeBron in 06-07 took a much less talented team into the finals. And remember when GS upset the top seeded Mavericks?

Kinda like

I will say right now that NO FUCKING WAY do we win a ring if you trade Oden for Paul so please give me another scenario.

 

[RR7]

Well I barely watched the second half of the season as not long after Oden went down my father was diagnosed with terminal cancer and then died in April. I missed the second half so my mistake there about Roy's FTA's going down. I know they went down massively for a LONG time after that statement.

His 52 point game was in Decemeber of the 08-09 season. For the season, he averaged 6.5 FTA per game. January was 7.2, February 4.5, March was 6.7, and April was 6.5. So they didn't at all drop massively for a LONG time. And this season, like I said, they went up to 6.8 a game, and that was after a bad month of November, getting only 4.9 attempts, struggling with the offense, like everyone seemed to be. So I'm not seeing it. Sorry.

 

[Idog1976]

Well Orlando has a chance doesn't it?

And this is why I can't take you seriously. You're acting like certain events are predetermined and there's nothing that can change them. Who the hell knows if Miami will make the finals??? That's why you play the damn games. The Cavs went into the playoffs the past two years with the best record in the league and didn't even make the finals, yet a LeBron in 06-07 took a much less talented team into the finals. And remember when GS upset the top seeded Mavericks?

Kinda like

I agree that Orlando has one of the best shots in the league of blocking the Heat. But seriously, do you REALLY think the Heat don't come out of the East? I mean since we are "Just playing the damn games" maybe the Twolves will break out of the pack and win it all. I'm talking about odds.

Since we are BOTH spouting opinion I'll let Vegas settle it. They got money on the line:

http://sports.bodog.com/sports-betting/basketball-futures.jsp

 

[B-Roy]

I agree that Orlando has one of the best shots in the league of blocking the Heat. But seriously, do you REALLY think the Heat don't come out of the East? I mean since we are "Just playing the damn games" maybe the Twolves will break out of the pack and win it all. I'm talking about odds.

Since we are BOTH spouting opinion I'll let Vegas settle it. They got money on the line:

http://sports.bodog.com/sports-betting/basketball-futures.jsp

The entire league save for Orlando, LA, NJ, and Portland should just give up because they don't have a dominant big.

Because I mean, come on, who the hell is going to beat the Heat anyways?

Why does the NBA operate anyways? I mean, we should just concede titles to the favorites. Stern should give the trophy to whoever makes the best off-season moves and has the best roster on paper at the start of the season.

Why trade for Al Jefferson anyways? He's not going to win us a title. Yeah, why sign Amar'e, he's $100 million dollars over 5 years but we still won't beat the heat. Screw it all.

Oh wait....

 

[Idog1976]

The entire league save for Orlando, LA, NJ, and Portland should just give up because they don't have a dominant big.

Because I mean, come on, who the hell is going to beat the Heat anyways?

Why does the NBA operate anyways? I mean, we should just concede titles to the favorites. Stern should give the trophy to whoever makes the best off-season moves and has the best roster on paper at the start of the season.

Why trade for Al Jefferson anyways? He's not going to win us a title. Yeah, why sign Amar'e, he's $100 million dollars over 5 years but we still won't beat the heat. Screw it all.

Oh wait....

Luxury tax and profit sharing are the answers.

I pretty much agree with your assessment of LA, Boston, Portland, Orlando and maybe NJN if Favors is a beast and they pick up a decent defensive 2 and 3. Sure why play the games, I'm almost to that point with how stacked some teams are. Luckily Portland is a piece away IMO, but that's assuming you retain at least Roy or Oden and likely both. Trading Oden for CP3 seemed like a fair idea before LeBron went to Miami as you could beat LA at a few positions. Now with Miami's sole weakness in the front court (and PG, but really that's not enough) AND LA's length I don't think you can hope to WIN A TITLE without a dominant big.

Oh by the way LeBron getting blocked last year? Hmm, seems like it was by a team with DOMINANT BIGS AND AWESOME DEFENSE.

You really think adding Wade and Bosh is gonna make it easier to beat LBJ? Give me a break.

 

[B-Roy]

Oh by the way LeBron getting blocked last year? Hmm, seems like it was by a team with DOMINANT BIGS AND AWESOME DEFENSE.

You really think adding Wade and Bosh is gonna make it easier to beat LBJ? Give me a break.

The Celtics have dominant bigs? They lost because Rondo (Who is a PG btw, hahahaha) went nutso.

Garnett and Perkins are no better than Aldridge and Przybilla.

Heat aren't winning a title anyways because they don't have a dominant big, right?

Luxury tax and profit sharing are the answers.

You do know the Jazz went further into the lux tax to get Jeff and Raja right? Are they a contender?

 

[Idog1976]

The Celtics have dominant bigs? They lost because Rondo (Who is a PG btw, hahahaha) went nutso.

Garnett and Perkins are no better than Aldridge and Przybilla.

Heat aren't winning a title anyways because they don't have a dominant big, right?



You do know the Jazz went further into the lux tax to get Jeff and Raja right? Are they a contender?

When I say dominant I mean defensively. Garnett is still better then LMA and Przybilla IIRC had a nearly career ending series of injuries.

You are right about Rondo going nutso.

You think CP3 + Roy is enough to get a ring. OK, you are entitled to your opinion. I say it takes dominant bigs on the glass/defense probably with a fair amount of interior defense to win against the Heat. You are entitled to your opinion and I will continue to take you seriously even though I think you are dead wrong about this.

We can agree to disagree.

No I think Al Jeff will hurt Utah not as much as Boozer leaving, but I don't think he puts them in contention no. FWIW, Raja is old as well.