Mark Stein's run-down of the series

[Minstrel]

No. 4 Portland Trail Blazers

What I like: The Blazers have so many commodities crucial to playoff success. Already.

They are feared on their home floor. They have Brandon Roy as a closer who has somehow earned that rep before he ever played in a playoff game. They also have copious amounts of length and depth to surround Roy.

Add it all up and you have a team that, in spite of its virtually nonexistent collective playoff experience, is being increasingly nominated as the West team best equipped to give the Lakers problems in a series.

It's a theory that obviously might never have made it into circulation so soon if, say, San Antonio, New Orleans or Houston weren't weakened by injury. But none of that diminishes the wow factor here. Nate McMillan won 54 games with a ridiculously young team and wound up in the right bracket to test that L.A. theory if it can get to the second round.

How can you not like all that?

What I don't like: The flip side is that when it comes to playoff experience, I actually am one of those stubborn old-school purists. I generally need to see it on the postseason stage before I can believe it.

So I inevitably presume that the young Blazers won't look quite as good as they have once the glare and expectations of this postseason hit them. I'm convinced that the lack of experience has to be a key factor in Houston's favor, even when Portland is facing a group whose own cornerstone still doesn't know how it feels to win a first-round series, either. (This will be Yao Ming's fourth attempt to reach Round 2.)

Complicating matters for the Blazers, who still have some holes in their defense and perimeter shooting, is the fact that they probably won't be able to play with the nothing-to-lose looseness that you'd expect for a team in their situation. The support they receive in Portland from Blazers maniacs is tremendously loud and loyal -- and the Blazers are lucky to have it -- but that also means expectations are tremendously high in spite of the experience issues.

Remember back in February when Roy basically said "just making the playoffs and giving ourselves a chance on that stage" was the general aim this season? Don't think Blazers maniacs would sanction that sentiment after what they saw in a rousing March and April.


No. 5 Houston Rockets

What I like: Home-court advantage is Portland's. Most of the other advantages belong to Houston.

Shane Battier and Ron Artest represent two top-shelf defenders to throw at Roy. The Blazers have struggled to cope with Yao Ming -- even with Joel Przybilla and Greg Oden as Portland's two-headed center -- and know that LaMarcus Aldridge will be hounded by the pesky Chuck Hayes in relief of Luis Scola. Backcourt speed (Aaron Brooks, Kyle Lowry, Von Wafer) is another Rockets strength.

The Rockets obviously wanted Game 1 at their place. But I've had the feeling for a while now that Portland is the first-round opponent they wanted given the choices available, setting up Houston -- which has its own well-chronicled playoff psyche issues -- to be the bully for once.

What I don't like: The usual complaint about the McGrady-less Rockets is that they have no late-game closer without him. That's not my complaint, though, since T-Mac has never advanced past the first round in his career, just like Yao.

How can you miss what you never really had?

The bigger obstacle for the Rockets is figuring out how to combat the Blazers' surging confidence at home to win at least one game in Portland. They have to make sure they aren't punished by their own lack of polish at the point with Brooks and Lowry.

And let's face it: Doubt can creep into Houston's team mindset rather easily if -- after avoiding the Utah team it desperately didn't want to see for a third straight year -- Portland roughs the Rockets up first.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2009/news?columnist=stein_marc&id=4073003

 

[Natebishop3]

It's really hard to predict this series. About the only thing we can lean on is the fact that we are almost unbeatable at home and we have HCA.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

It's really hard to predict this series. About the only thing we can lean on is the fact that we are almost unbeatable at home and we have HCA.

and that we have the league biggest win streak going into the playoffs and Houston lost it's last game
(and that it was a REALLY big game for them).

 

[STOMP]

Home-court advantage is Portland's. Most of the other advantages belong to Houston.

Which team is healthier? Webster or McGrady... and Yao has been missing games due to foot issues

Which team has been playing better ball going into the playoffs? The Blazers have won their last 6 & are 9-1 in their last 10... they've regularly been blowing teams out. Houston lost their last game to lose home court advantage in a game they were leading by 15. They are 6-4 in their last 10.

Which team has the bigger mismatch to exploit? Limping Yao vs Gregzilla or Roy vs... who is their 2 guard again? Brent Barry??? Aldridge vs Scola seems pretty exploitable as well.

Bench? Hayes Lowry Barry Landry Dikembe Wafer vs Greg Outlaw Rudy Sergio Frye

I just became a whole lot more convinced about Portland's chances. I don't think having experience losing in the playoffs is a positive thing either... if anything, it's a negative

STOMP

 

[oldguy]

I'm think'n that the Rox will be facing some expectations from their fans too....much more so than the Blazers. If the Rockets lose this series, their fans will be sharpening the pitchforks and lighting the torches in Houston.

 

[Nikolokolus]

You know I'm not sure I agree with Stein's assessment of fan expectations (about the only thing aside from the 'perimeter shooting' comment I take issue with). Maybe I'm off-base but I don't think people are going to be majorly let down if the Blazers fail to advance. Am I alone here?

 

[oldguy]

I absolutely agree. The guys have already exceeded what I expected this season. I'm happy with whatever they make of it from here. I'm also optimistic that they are going to raise some eyebrows in the playoffs.

 

[mook]

Complicating matters for the Blazers, who still have some holes in their defense and perimeter shooting, is the fact that they probably won't be able to play with the nothing-to-lose looseness that you'd expect for a team in their situation.

Huh? The defense definitely still has some holes, most glaringly against quick point guards. But perimeter shooting? I don't think I've seen a thread all year entitled "We need better perimeter shooters," or words to that effect.

If I could talk to Stein for 10 minutes, I'd ask him to name a non-center on this team who can't hit a three pointer. He'd have to admit among the 10 man rotation the list begins and ends with Sergio.

If Portland isn't a good perimeter shooting team, I want to know who is.

 

[Nate Dogg]

For the month of April Rudy and V.Wafer are very close to ppg. However Rudy has better stats in the 3pt % and steals. I think Nate will match these two perhaps?

 

[Nikolokolus]

For the month of April Rudy and V.Wafer are very close to ppg. However Rudy has better stats in the 3pt % and steals. I think Nate will match these two perhaps?

I suppose it all comes down to how Adelman uses Wafer, but it would seem logical that the backup two guards would be responsible for covering each other

 

[Nate Dogg]

Our perimeter shooters is what killed Denver. Either Roy, Rudy, Blake, or Outlaw were left open and we drilled those shots.
Perhaps Mark Stein is listening to Charles Barkley too much and doesn't think we have a good perimeter team.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Our perimeter shooters is what killed Denver. Either Roy, Rudy, Blake, or Outlaw were left open and we drilled those shots.
Perhaps Mark Stein is listening to Charles Barkley too much and doesn't think we have a good perimeter team.

Honestly, after listening to Stein the other day on Bill Simmons' podcast I'm pretty convinced he's maybe watched us play 5 times all season.

 

[Draco]

or Roy vs... who is their 2 guard again? Brent Barry???

Artest/Battier play the 2/3 for them we don't have much of an edge there.

I think this series comes down to Travis and Rudy. Most of the other matchups are fairly even but the Rockets have no counter to those two. If those guys can get our offense going it'll force Artest to stop overplaying Roy and open up our options.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Artest/Battier play the 2/3 for them we don't have much of an edge there.

I think this series comes down to Travis and Rudy. Most of the other matchups are fairly even but the Rockets have no counter to those two. If those guys can get our offense going it'll force Artest to stop overplaying Roy and open up our options.

The funny thing is, this is why having all this crazy depth is less important in the playoffs than it is in the regular season; Artest and Battier will probably be on the court 40+ minutes a game and their backups will play much fewer minutes than they do in the regular season. Travis and Rudy aren't going to have quite the luxury of facing other reserves in the same way they do during the regular season, so they are going to have to go through the same trials and tribulations Roy faces.

I really hope they are up to the challenge.

 

[Minstrel]

The funny thing is, this is why having all this crazy depth is less important in the playoffs than it is in the regular season; Artest and Battier will probably be on the court 40+ minutes a game and their backups will play much fewer minutes than they do in the regular season. Travis and Rudy aren't going to have quite the luxury of facing other reserves in the same way they do during the regular season, so they are going to have to go through the same trials and tribulations Roy faces.

I really hope they are up to the challenge.

Though, when Scola rests, Houston is a pretty small team beyond the center position. Portland can potentially run Roy, Rudy and Outlaw out there together and Artest and Battier can't deal with all of them. Toss in Blake and you have four legitimate scoring threats (Blake only as a shooter, but a damn good one if left open) along the perimeter and Outlaw can defend Landry/Hayes, since they're small power forwards. Actually even Scola isn't that big...Outlaw can likely defend him, too.

While I totally agree that consolidating talent in the top four players is the best way to go for title contention, this depth will have a major effect in being able to adapt to different teams well. If a conventional team hits a team they don't match up well with, it's basically tough luck. Portland can mix and match a bit to optimize for each team they face. The configuration they settle on can then play lots of minutes, eschewing depth.

 

[Shooter]

Which team has been playing better ball going into the playoffs? The Blazers have won their last 6 & are 9-1 in their last 10... they've regularly been blowing teams out. Houston lost their last game to lose home court advantage in a game they were leading by 15. They are 6-4 in their last 10.

That's a very important factor. Portland is on the upswing right now, and no one in the NBA is hotter.

 

[KingSpeed]

Which team is healthier? Webster or McGrady... and Yao has been missing games due to foot issues

Which team has been playing better ball going into the playoffs? The Blazers have won their last 6 & are 9-1 in their last 10...
STOMP

and 10-1 in our last 11..

unfortunately, the one loss was to houston

 

[Nikolokolus]

Though, when Scola rests, Houston is a pretty small team beyond the center position. Portland can potentially run Roy, Rudy and Outlaw out there together and Artest and Battier can't deal with all of them. Toss in Blake and you have four legitimate scoring threats (Blake only as a shooter, but a damn good one if left open) along the perimeter and Outlaw can defend Landry/Hayes, since they're small power forwards. Actually even Scola isn't that big...Outlaw can likely defend him, too.

While I totally agree that consolidating talent in the top four players is the best way to go for title contention, this depth will have a major effect in being able to adapt to different teams well. If a conventional team hits a team they don't match up well with, it's basically tough luck. Portland can mix and match a bit to optimize for each team they face. The configuration they settle on can then play lots of minutes, eschewing depth.

True enough. I'm not trying to suggest our reserves are going to have no shot at succeeding, just that playoff rotations will blunt some of their effectiveness.

 

[rocketeer]

Which team is healthier? Webster or McGrady... and Yao has been missing games due to foot issues

Which team has been playing better ball going into the playoffs? The Blazers have won their last 6 & are 9-1 in their last 10... they've regularly been blowing teams out. Houston lost their last game to lose home court advantage in a game they were leading by 15. They are 6-4 in their last 10.

Which team has the bigger mismatch to exploit? Limping Yao vs Gregzilla or Roy vs... who is their 2 guard again? Brent Barry??? Aldridge vs Scola seems pretty exploitable as well.

Bench? Hayes Lowry Barry Landry Dikembe Wafer vs Greg Outlaw Rudy Sergio Frye

I just became a whole lot more convinced about Portland's chances. I don't think having experience losing in the playoffs is a positive thing either... if anything, it's a negative

STOMP

eh, you aren't correct in much of your analysis.

yao is fine. he missed one game with a sore foot. he rested it for a day and then was fine. in two games after coming back he had 45 points, 16 rebounds, and 4 blocks on 19-33 shooting. if you're counting on a "limping yao" to give you a chance at winning, you might as well not even show up for the games.

who is the rockets 2 guard? artest and battier start together. artest or battier will be on roy all game. von wafer is the backup 2 guard. brent barry is the 9th or 10th man off the bench(though the rockets really would prefer to just go 8 deep). barry shouldn't get more than 10 minutes in any game unless there is an injury.

 

[rocketeer]

Though, when Scola rests, Houston is a pretty small team beyond the center position. Portland can potentially run Roy, Rudy and Outlaw out there together and Artest and Battier can't deal with all of them. Toss in Blake and you have four legitimate scoring threats (Blake only as a shooter, but a damn good one if left open) along the perimeter and Outlaw can defend Landry/Hayes, since they're small power forwards. Actually even Scola isn't that big...Outlaw can likely defend him, too.

outlaw can't defend landry, at least not with results portland would be happy with.

 

[Nate Dogg]

I think Nate and his assistant coaches will review the tapes and allow each of those coaches work with their players that they are assigned to. Nate rotates his bench a lot , noticing if teams are going small, big , or quick on the floor. He does a decent balance with this during the season which has benefited our players getting experience throughout our bench. Fry is on an upswing now and hopefully no one else in the club gets the Flu like Batum did. I think Batum, Frye, Oden and Przy will get ample minutes to attack Yao and company. Wafer and Brooks got Portland the last time and I think they will be circled as players to be focused on. We also didn't have Oden in Houston on February 25th, 2009.

 

[STOMP]

Artest/Battier play the 2/3 for them we don't have much of an edge there.

really? I didn't see Brandon having much trouble getting free for good looks the last time they matched up, and that was something I went into the game looking for. Neither of those two can match his quickness especially the way he runs guys off screens. Heck, for the same reason Roy doesn't seem to have any problem getting good looks vs Kobe with the game on the line. Heres guessing he's shaking whoever is initially guarding him and collapsing their D all series just like he's done to the league all season.

STOMP

 

[GoBlazersGo]

Heres guessing he's shaking whoever is initially guarding him and collapsing their D all series just like he's done to the league all season.

STOMP

And here's to you, my friend:

My thoughts exactly!



GO BLAZERS! "SORRY ITS TEH TRUTH!"

 

[STOMP]

eh, you aren't correct in much of your analysis.

yao is fine. he missed one game with a sore foot. he rested it for a day and then was fine. in two games after coming back he had 45 points, 16 rebounds, and 4 blocks on 19-33 shooting. if you're counting on a "limping yao" to give you a chance at winning, you might as well not even show up for the games.

I didn't say I was counting on limping Yao, I was comparing mismatches. Portland has two obvious ones that are at least equal to Yao vs Gregzilla. I probably should have included Artest vs Batum, but I liked how Nic did vs Ron last game.

I also was comparing injury situations... We'll see if Yao's troublesome foot flares up again, but remind me how many games Blazer players have been missing of late to injury? My analysis was which team was healthier and it seems to me that Portland missing Webster vs Houston missing McGrady alone makes that a landslide advantage Portland.

who is the rockets 2 guard? artest and battier start together. artest or battier will be on roy all game.

right, but as my link indicates whats always been true... neither ever has been a two guard as both are much bigger. Speed kills especially at the wing spots and those two can't keep up with Brandon.

so basically you aren't correct in much of your critique of my analysis

STOMP

 

[gatorpops]

Which team is healthier? Webster or McGrady... and Yao has been missing games due to foot issues

Which team has been playing better ball going into the playoffs? The Blazers have won their last 6 & are 9-1 in their last 10... they've regularly been blowing teams out. Houston lost their last game to lose home court advantage in a game they were leading by 15. They are 6-4 in their last 10.

Which team has the bigger mismatch to exploit? Limping Yao vs Gregzilla or Roy vs... who is their 2 guard again? Brent Barry??? Aldridge vs Scola seems pretty exploitable as well.

Bench? Hayes Lowry Barry Landry Dikembe Wafer vs Greg Outlaw Rudy Sergio Frye

I just became a whole lot more convinced about Portland's chances. I don't think having experience losing in the playoffs is a positive thing either... if anything, it's a negative

STOMP

You could look at this as Portland has never lost in a playoff series and Huston has lost, what, three times!!!!!

 

[rocketeer]

I also was comparing injury situations... We'll see if Yao's troublesome foot flares up again, but remind me how many games Blazer players have been missing of late to injury? My analysis was which team was healthier and it seems to me that Portland missing Webster vs Houston missing McGrady alone makes that a landslide advantage Portland.

tmac was playing hurt all year. the rockets have been much better since he shut it down. the rockets really have no injury worries at this point.

right, but as my link indicates whats always been true... neither ever has been a two guard as both are much bigger. Speed kills especially at the wing spots and those two can't keep up with Brandon.

STOMP

it doesn't matter than neither have been a two guard in the past. both guys have consistently defended the other team's best perimeter player regardless of whether that player was a two guard or small forward. the two of them are the best duo in the league to throw at roy to attempt to defend him.

 

[DaRizzle]

My prediction: You guys are gonna hate Shane Battier (sp?) with a passion. He is gonna make Roy's life a nightmare.

My personal (viewing)experience: Last year in one of the LAL/HOU games I saw the greatest defense EVER played on Kobe Bryant. Im not talking about a night where Kobe just happened to be off, but where Shane MADE him suck. You guys will see this soon...Shane has an amazing ability to but his hand 2-3 inches away from a players eyes without touching his face or arms when the offensive player is shooting. He is able to do this time and time again without fouling, its rather amazing.

Win or lose...Shane Battier will be in all of your nightmares...especially Roy

 

[GoBlazersGo]

Blah, blah, fucking-BLAH... the clock stops when the whistle's blown!

 

[Shooter]

My prediction: You guys are gonna hate Shane Battier (sp?) with a passion. He is gonna make Roy's life a nightmare.

My personal (viewing)experience: Last year in one of the LAL/HOU games I saw the greatest defense EVER played on Kobe Bryant. Im not talking about a night where Kobe just happened to be off, but where Shane MADE him suck. You guys will see this soon...Shane has an amazing ability to but his hand 2-3 inches away from a players eyes without touching his face or arms when the offensive player is shooting. He is able to do this time and time again without fouling, its rather amazing.

Win or lose...Shane Battier will be in all of your nightmares...especially Roy

Let me guess. You're worried about the Blazers facing off against the Lakers, right?

Heh, heh.

 

[Boob-No-More]

You could look at this as Portland has never lost in a playoff series and Huston has lost, what, three times!!!!!

Yes, Houston has more playoff experience than Portland - more experience losing in the playoffs.

BNM