Memo: Cap Could Drop To $50.4M In 2010-11

[RickyRubio]

What does this mean for the re-signing of LMA and Roy? Does this mean they will make less? Or do they get re-signed for the same amount and the team just suffers?

 

[BrianFromWA]

Yes, it means Roy will make less. He'll be capped out at 25% of the cap, which if it's at 50.4M means he's getting a 5yr/75.6M extension. Compare that to if he signed on this year's cap number, where he'd get an extension of 5/86.55M. He's losing out on 11M over the life of the contract b/c the cap went down.

LMA wasn't getting the max anyway, so if he gets something like an 11M starting contract, he'll still be under the max.

 

[RickyRubio]

So it is kind of a good and bad thing. If they sign those cheaper contracts, and the cap goes back up in a couple years, we got a good deal. But it might piss off Roy and LMA. But not a lot they can do about it.

 

[alex42083]

Man.. 5 years at $75 mil ain't too shabby.. of course, he could go the route that LeBron and Wade did, and sign a three-year max offer with a player option for a fourth. If his agent believes he can get more money in three years with a better economic situation, that might be an option for him.

 

[PapaG]

Man.. 5 years at $75 mil ain't too shabby.. of course, he could go the route that LeBron and Wade did, and sign a three-year max offer with a player option for a fourth. If his agent believes he can get more money in three years with a better economic situation, that might be an option for him.

That's a really good point, and if I'm Roy that's exactly what I would do with my extension. LMA may want to take the max on years and not dollars at this point, though, because he's not a Tier One player (Wade, Bryant, Roy, Paul, James, etc.), and he won't be a Tier One in the future.

 

[ucatchtrout]

Cap going down next year creates a greater sense of urgency in financially strapped teams.....enhancing the opportunity for a lopsided trade.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Minor correction: the luxury tax going don't hurts them a lot more than the cap. Most teams are over the cap, but under the lux tax, so they get money back at tax time. If you a) don't get that money and b) have to pay that money, it's like a double-whammy.

 

[alex42083]

That's a really good point, and if I'm Roy that's exactly what I would do with my extension. LMA may want to take the max on years and not dollars at this point, though, because he's not a Tier One player (Wade, Bryant, Roy, Paul, James, etc.), and he won't be a Tier One in the future.

Of course, the downside of that would be you'd get irrational fans all up in arms about "What! Roy didn't want to sign the max?? Does he want to leave??" And you'll have to hear all that stuff for the next 3 years. But I think Brandon has classified himself in that elite group of players.

 

[PapaG]

Of course, the downside of that would be you'd get irrational fans all up in arms about "What! Roy didn't want to sign the max?? Does he want to leave??" And you'll have to hear all that stuff for the next 3 years. But I think Brandon has classified himself in that elite group of players.

Business is business, and if Portland wants him, they'll pay for him. From a business perspective, Brandon (assuming health) would be foolish to accept a max deal under next year's cap.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

So are we looking at a situation where the Blazers should extend Roy now in order to leverage the larger possible deal instead of waiting a year and risking a shorter deal with a player option? Because, frankly, I'm all for giving Roy very large, fat sacks of cash loot with dollar signs on them if it means he'll stay longer.

 

[BrianFromWA]

we can show up on his door today and say "we'll extend you for the max". But "max" doesn't get calculated until July 8 next year. And from what it looks like, it'll be about 12.5M to start, for a 75.6M/5yr deal. Nothing the Blazers can do can change that, whether they offer it tomorrow or next July 8th.

The only difference would be that if we signed the extension this summer, he becomes a Poison Pill Player, which is difficult to trade. But since we're not trading him, it's transparent. Except that he's guaranteed a large amount of cash.

 

[PapaG]

we can show up on his door today and say "we'll extend you for the max". But "max" doesn't get calculated until July 8 next year. And from what it looks like, it'll be about 12.5M to start, for a 75.6M/5yr deal. Nothing the Blazers can do can change that, whether they offer it tomorrow or next July 8th.

The only difference would be that if we signed the extension this summer, he becomes a Poison Pill Player, which is difficult to trade. But since we're not trading him, it's transparent. Except that he's guaranteed a large amount of cash.

I still say the smarter move for Roy is to take the 3 year/4th option contract and hit the market again at age 28 or 29 with what I imagine would be a higher ceiling regardless of the next CBA.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Totally agree. And I'd be surprised if he didn't.

I responded to what I thought Caravan was proposing: that we "lock him up" now for higher money instead of rolling the dice on the contract you proposed next summer. It doesn't matter what we do...the number of his dollars will be determined next July 8. All we can say is "We'll give you as much as we're allowed for as long as you want--provided it's 5 years or less."

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Totally agree. And I'd be surprised if he didn't.

I responded to what I thought Caravan was proposing: that we "lock him up" now for higher money instead of rolling the dice on the contract you proposed next summer. It doesn't matter what we do...the number of his dollars will be determined next July 8. All we can say is "We'll give you as much as we're allowed for as long as you want--provided it's 5 years or less."

Cool, thanks for the clarification.

I really don't know if I could survive the "Brandon Roy Sweepstakes" talk in four years... hopefully by then we'll have a championship under our belts, and I can at least get that satisfaction before he bolts for Houston... *sigh*

 

[Minstrel]

I really don't know if I could survive the "Brandon Roy Sweepstakes" talk in four years... hopefully by then we'll have a championship under our belts, and I can at least get that satisfaction before he bolts for Houston... *sigh*

This isn't baseball, there aren't any bidding wars. Portland will be able to offer Roy the most money whenever his contract is up. Unless Portland has actively made Roy's life miserable, I don't see a reason why he'd leave money on the table to go elsewhere.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

This isn't baseball, there aren't any bidding wars. Portland will be able to offer Roy the most money whenever his contract is up. Unless Portland has actively made Roy's life miserable, I don't see a reason why he'd leave money on the table to go elsewhere.

He might pick a more cosmopolitan city.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Seattle doesn't have a team anymore.