Messin around with +/- numbers

[illmatic99]

Was bored at work today and decided to mess around on bball reference after reading some of the stuff on +/-.

So far for 20 games, I wanted to see which starter's +/- most closely correlated with the team's. This can give us an idea of which player is possibly most crucial to the team's success. Obviously, there are lots of caveats and variability (blowouts, benching, injuries, time on floor ,etc) but I might have uncovered some statistical significance here, so I figured I'd share it.

Key stat to look at here is "rsq" or r-squared. It's gives an indication of a statistical correlation in the linear relationship here between "Player +/-" and "Team +/-' if the value is close to 1.

Wes: 0.42, Dame: 0.52, Rolo: 0.53, LA: 0.66, Nic: 0.82

What this is telling me is that Nic most closely correlating with team's success. If he does well, then the team does well more often than with other players.

 

[magnifier661]

That's why I think people are most frustrated when Aldridge or Batum is playing poorly. Their factor in the game is most valuable

 

[illmatic99]

Yup. Dame is our best starter +/- wise. But if we want a predictor of how the team is doing, gotta keep an eye on Nic's impact on any given night. Kinda conforms to the idea that he's our glue guy as the straw that stirs the drink.

 

[HailBlazers]

Yup, just like LA said last night Nic is the X-factor.

 

[Boise Blazer]

A lot that is because when Nic plays well the others only have to be playing average and Nic makes them better and the overall team better with the way he plays.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

Well shit, he should do well every game!

If they made a concerted effort to get him shots, get him more involved, would that benefit the team?

 

[riverman]

Nico is just getting warmed up and now he has a backup in Crabbe..let the fun begin..that was a fascinating bit of research yuza and this is the best thread we've had here in a stretch. repped!