OT Nate Silver's 538 "CARMELO" player comparisons

[Rastapopoulos]

Check it out. Lillard is Jason Terry!

 

[Rastapopoulos]

According to that, Boban has greater value than Meyers or Allen Crabbe...

 

[Five Second Violation]

So.... Lillard is forecast to get worse every year as he enters his prime?

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Yikes, none of our guys look good. Evan Turner looks particularly bad.

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

CJ is in the "average starter" category lol

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Interesting: Batum is $110M, Klay Thompson is $91M

 

[Rastapopoulos]

CJ is in the "average starter" category lol

So is Klay Thompson.

 

[Minstrel]

If those Similarity scores are in percentiles, it appears that CARMELO doesn't consider there to be any particularly good comparisons for Lillard, since Terry is only a 52.

 

[Minstrel]

Also, that Brandon Roy chart (#5 comp for Lillard) is so sad to look at.

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

So is Klay Thompson.

Aaaaaaaaaand this a bogus ass comparison/projection.

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

If those Similarity scores are in percentiles, it appears that CARMELO doesn't consider there to be any particularly good comparisons for Lillard, since Terry is only a 52.

I thought the Gilbert Arenas comparison was fair, but I doubt Lillard goes through the dumb antics he got himself into.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I love some of the old names that even I have never heard of. Mo Harkless is Tom Abernethy in 1978.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

If those Similarity scores are in percentiles, it appears that CARMELO doesn't consider there to be any particularly good comparisons for Lillard, since Terry is only a 52.

Presumably that's a sign of a unique player. Steph Curry's highest comp is 22. (And it's Michael Jordan.)

 

[Boob-No-More]

Noah Vonleh's second most comparable player is Li Jianlian. I was indifferent about Vonleh's future, but now I'm stoked, because according to Kingspeed, that means he's going to be an all star!

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Ezeli has already peaked. He's Will Perdue with bad knees. His 5-year projected value is $13.9 million.

Note to Neil Olshey: that's $13.9 million TOTAL for 5 years, not $13.9 million per year.

BNM

 

[Mediocre Man]

Seems legit

 

[Boob-No-More]

OK, this just got a lot more legit.

Dion Waiters - Category: Scrub

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

One thing (possibly the ONLY thing) this metric got right is it shows what great values Aminu and Ed Davis are. Aminu's 5-year projected value is $80.1 million and Ed's is $101.0 million.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

OK, maybe not so legit after all...

Chris Kaman - Category: Defensive Specialist

Really? Who knew? Guess maybe we don't need Festus Perdue after all.

BNM

 

[BlazerCaravan]

So.... Lillard is forecast to get worse every year as he enters his prime?

CARMELO is interesting garbage. Here's Steph Curry's: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/stephen-curry/

 

[BrianFromWA]

If I knew all it took was a BS Nate Silver semi-stats futuristic projection analysis to get BNM on a 5-post-in-6 rampage through a thread (with a Will Perdue drop!!), I'd have a lot more garbage teed up and make him unable to block BGD.