However, Chicago and Portland have gotten very similar production from their reserves, which is good news for the Blazers, and a problem for the Bulls. This can all be quantified, of course, and once you do the math, some of these depth-generated narratives don't play out like you'd think. Quality depth is a hot commodity across the league in wake of the Spurs winning the title last season despite every player on their roster averaging fewer than 30 minutes per game, a first in league history.
With the issue of roster depth under the spotlight, let's look at the reserve units across the league. Are teams like the Bulls rushing to emulate the San Antonio depth model? Are teams like the Blazers outliers? Do these teams even fit the molds we think they fit?
To look at the issue, I captured the past 10 years of game logs from basketball-reference.com, which notes on each line of data if a player was a starter or reserve. Using this, I was able to calculate each player's WARP (wins above replacement) strictly for the time he spent on the court as a reserve. From there, I was able to roll up team and league metrics. (Yes, this is what I do for fun.)
Let's start with trends at the league level. So far this season, the average reserve is getting 15.7 minutes per game. This is down just a tad from last season, though it's so early the number will still fluctuate. Over the past 10 years, the league's reserve MPG has ranged from 15.6 to 16.4.
The WARP produced by reserves has fluctuated more, from 106.6 in 2006-07 to 170.3 in 2009-10. Last season, that figure was 123.8. Beyond that, the trends have dovetailed with overall league trends: Reserves are taking more 3s but are getting fewer offensive boards and free throw attempts. Efficiency is up this season, but it's been more due to 2-point field goal percentage than success behind the arc.
You usually hear reserve strength communicated in terms of bench scoring per game, which is a pretty backwards way to look at any basketball issue. Using WARP yields some surprising news: Portland has gotten more from its reserves this season than Chicago. The Blazers rank 16th with 0.51 bench WARP this season, while the Bulls rank 18th at 0.33. Chicago has had to use Gibson and Kirk Hinrich as starters, among others, so its disappointing rank is no real surprise. The Blazers' improvement has to be looked at as a great sign, however. Chris Kaman has been the chief contributor, and so far looks like one of the better pickups of the offseason.
As for the Bulls, we don't yet know if they will be able to create Bench Mob 2.0. We'll know more when, and if, Thibodeau is actually able to use his reserves as reserves.
Bench-related notes from around the league
• The Dallas Mavericks have flashed the league's best bench in the early going, with Brandan Wright leading all bench players in reserve WARP. At the other end of the spectrum, the Warriors' bench has struggled. So too has the bench of the injury-depleted Thunder, which nevertheless leads the league in average minutes per reserve. In fact, if OKC's reserve MPG of 20.2 were to hold up, which it won't if the Thunder get some players back, it would be the highest total in the 10-year period I looked at.
• The Spurs, as you'd expect, lead everyone in reserve WARP over the past 10 years, and the past five years. San Antonio is second, however, if you drill down to the past three years. The Mavericks have had the NBA's most productive bench over that span.
• Whether you look at the past 10 years all together, or just the past three years, the most productive reserve is the same player: Manu Ginobili, who has 49.3 WARP as a reserve over his past 10 seasons. His individual winning percentage over that span off the bench is .679. His overall winning percentage is .676. Starting nor not, he's still Manu.
• Under George Karl, the Denver Nuggets ranked in the top four in reserve WARP for six straight seasons ending when Karl was fired after the 2012-13 season.
• James Harden ranks ninth in reserve WARP over the past decade even though he's now well established as an All-NBA starting shooting guard. Only Ginobili has had a higher single-season total than Harden's 9.0 reserve WARP in 2011-12.
• This comes up about New York's J.R. Smith all the time, including just the other day after Smith had a solid game starting in place of injured Iman Shumpert. Smith ranks second to Ginobili in reserve WARP over the past decade. His winning percentage as a reserve is .538. His overall winning percentage is .515, a drop-off of 4.6 percent.
