Politics NBC says "'Trump is Winning', but at what cost?"

[BrianFromWA]

Re: the "where do you get your news from" thread, I don't usually get it from NBC, but this headline caught my eye and it was a well-written and -referenced article. I'm interested in what you think of the premise:

Trump is winning — but are voters tired of it?
Analysis: President Donald Trump has racked up a series of policy victories. The question now is whether that helps his party at the polls next month — or hurts it.

President Donald Trump has radically transformed American domestic and foreign policy, and — with the confirmation now of two of his picks for the Supreme Court — that legacy now promises to long outlive his presidency.
In addition to entrenching a conservative majority on the high court, he's slashed taxes; wiped away decades of regulations; withdrawn from the Iran nuclear deal and the Trans-Pacific Partnership; clamped down on legal and illegal immigration; and induced Mexico and Canada to update the North America Free Trade Agreement.
In short, he's winning — "bigly" — on policy.
The question, with midterm elections looming, is whether those victories translate into campaign wins or losses. Will Trump's muscular use of the levers of his executive, political and international power earn him an endorsement or a rebuke from voters in states with competitive Senate elections and swing House races?

Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., said "it's undeniable" that Trump has delivered on "a number of his key objectives in his campaign" — despite having failed on others, such as getting Mexico to pay for a border wall, or delivering big infrastructure legislation — and that those victories, including Kavanaugh's confirmation, will even further harden support among his core backers.

A) Do you agree with the premise that Trump has made good on his campaign promises?
B) If so, do you think this will cause anyone who voted for him to not vote for him or his endorsed candidates?

Personally, I think that there are fewer people who voted for Trump in 2016 who are disgusted now and will vote Blue than there are people who didn't vote for Trump and will now vote Red. (I'm one, based on the FL races). But I'm in a swing state. That's why I'm asking the above questions.

 

[CupWizier]

isn't it pretty easy to get policies passed when one party controls all 3 sectors? On the other hand we had a Senate Majority leader state that he will do his best to "obstruct" the Obama administration from getting anything passed. That to me is pretty disgusting. How do you feel about that?

As for your question, I would never vote for Trump as I see him as a disgusting human being who constantly lies and treats people with utter disrespect.

I also disagree with who will and won't vote for trump as you are discounting the possible surge of new young voters and the woman vote who is shifting more and more rapidly towards blue.

 

[tlongII]

Could you repeat the question please?

 

[barfo]

Re: the "where do you get your news from" thread, I don't usually get it from NBC, but this headline caught my eye and it was a well-written and -referenced article. I'm interested in what you think of the premise:

Trump is winning — but are voters tired of it?
Analysis: President Donald Trump has racked up a series of policy victories. The question now is whether that helps his party at the polls next month — or hurts it.





A) Do you agree with the premise that Trump has made good on his campaign promises?
B) If so, do you think this will cause anyone who voted for him to not vote for him or his endorsed candidates?

Personally, I think that there are fewer people who voted for Trump in 2016 who are disgusted now and will vote Blue than there are people who didn't vote for Trump and will now vote Red. (I'm one, based on the FL races). But I'm in a swing state. That's why I'm asking the above questions.

A. He has fulfilled some promises (the easy ones, mostly) and failed at others. That's not necessarily different from any president. Easy things are easy; hard things are hard.

B. You may not have voted for Trump, but I don't guess you voted for Hillary either. So I'm not sure you really count as a crossover voter. Correct me if I'm mischaracterizing you.
I doubt there are many real crossover voters in either direction. What will make the difference (or not) is turnout.
There might be a block of voters who aren't party or Trump aligned who just vote for whoever seems like they'll shake things up / burn things down. That was Trump last cycle but is likely to be Democrats this cycle. But who knows how many of those there are, and whether they vote in midterms.

barfo

 

[BrianFromWA]

A. He has fulfilled some promises (the easy ones, mostly) and failed at others. That's not necessarily different from any president. Easy things are easy; hard things are hard.

I don't know that new tax plan, choosing who he chose for the SC, stopping our involvement in NAFTA, TPP and the Iran deal were "easy".

B. You may not have voted for Trump, but I don't guess you voted for Hillary either. So I'm not sure you really count as a crossover voter. Correct me if I'm mischaracterizing you.

No, you're right, and in general more Republicans (especially in the more well-known races) tend to espouse what I'd vote for. For instance, Scott over Nelson (Senate) and DeSantis over Gillum (FL Gov). But that's not always the case, and especially down-ballot. My experience (YMMV) is that people can still be who they say they are because there isn't a lot of lobbyism in the county water commissioner or City Councilman or something. I don't take into account, for instance, someone's preferences on late-term abortion when they state they want to implement non-pesticidal methods of insect control. But I do have philosophical differences with people who want to raise taxes and have more government control on things. You don't get to go far in the (D) party thinking that. Hell, Manchin is a D that may switch over if he gets re-elected.

I doubt there are many real crossover voters in either direction. What will make the difference (or not) is turnout.

Fair enough. But Pinellas County (right next door) is a "pivot county"--one that voted for Obama in 08 and 12 and Trump in 16. Hillsborough (esp. 14th District) is pretty blue, but even then it was within 6%, iirc.

 

[Chris Craig]

A.) He has come through on some promises. None that will untimately help most of the people who voted for him. Many of his promises are still unfufilled.

B.) I expect most of the people who voted for him to do so again, many probably because they don't want to admit they are wrong. In 2016 many many dems didn't vote because of Clinton. That is why he did so well in the midwest. There will be a lot more people voting this year, including new voters...mostly young liberals. I expect most of these voters will not vote red.

 

[Lanny]

Re: the "where do you get your news from" thread, I don't usually get it from NBC, but this headline caught my eye and it was a well-written and -referenced article. I'm interested in what you think of the premise:

Trump is winning — but are voters tired of it?
Analysis: President Donald Trump has racked up a series of policy victories. The question now is whether that helps his party at the polls next month — or hurts it.





A) Do you agree with the premise that Trump has made good on his campaign promises?
B) If so, do you think this will cause anyone who voted for him to not vote for him or his endorsed candidates?

Personally, I think that there are fewer people who voted for Trump in 2016 who are disgusted now and will vote Blue than there are people who didn't vote for Trump and will now vote Red. (I'm one, based on the FL races). But I'm in a swing state. That's why I'm asking the above questions.

You've got to be kidding.

This Novem

Re: the "where do you get your news from" thread, I don't usually get it from NBC, but this headline caught my eye and it was a well-written and -referenced article. I'm interested in what you think of the premise:

Trump is winning — but are voters tired of it?
Analysis: President Donald Trump has racked up a series of policy victories. The question now is whether that helps his party at the polls next month — or hurts it.





A) Do you agree with the premise that Trump has made good on his campaign promises?
B) If so, do you think this will cause anyone who voted for him to not vote for him or his endorsed candidates?

Personally, I think that there are fewer people who voted for Trump in 2016 who are disgusted now and will vote Blue than there are people who didn't vote for Trump and will now vote Red. (I'm one, based on the FL races). But I'm in a swing state. That's why I'm asking the above questions.

Where's that wall Mexico was gonna pay for? Wasn't that his most ardent promise?

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

In the future, I hope Trump's victory opens up the door for more people outside of the career politician arena to run for the Presidency. Seeing how much the "machine" does attack him, it may be a deterrent as well.

 

[BrianFromWA]

isn't it pretty easy to get policies passed when one party controls all 3 sectors?

No, as the finagling that occurred in 2010 showed. Even a filibuster-proof supermajority needed

On the other hand we had a Senate Majority leader state that he will do his best to "obstruct" the Obama administration from getting anything passed. That to me is pretty disgusting. How do you feel about that?

I didn't like it when Biden talked about it. I think I even (on this board) discussed Reid's "Nuclear Option" coming back to bite him. To quote Democrat Rep. Alcee Hastings of the House Rules Committee during the (PPACA) bill process: “We’re making up the rules as we go along.” I don't like any of those, and didn't when it happened. And I don't love it now. And I keep getting flummoxed at people continuing to vote assholes (on both sides) to have more power over our lives when they show this kind of behavior?!

As for your question, I would never vote for Trump as I see him as a disgusting human being who constantly lies and treats people with utter disrespect.

But Trump's not on the ballot.

I also disagree with who will and won't vote for trump as you are discounting the possible surge of new young voters and the woman vote who is shifting more and more rapidly towards blue.

Sure, I'm discounting them. I'm also discounting people who were "young voters" a few years ago and, now that they're in the workforce and having families, like more in their paycheck and more control over their lives. As barfo said, I think it's just a matter of turnout. If I had to bet on it, I'd surmise the House goes to (D) by <10 votes, and the Senate stays (R) somewhere around 54-46. But ...?

The interesting thing to me was NBC stating, basically, "Trump's winning, whatcha gonna do about it." Instead of (what I'd have expected) "Trump's failed on most of his promises--Where's that wall? How is ISIS?--and is still a horrible person"

 

[Lanny]

No, as the finagling that occurred in 2010 showed. Even a filibuster-proof supermajority needed
On the other hand we had a Senate Majority leader state that he will do his best to "obstruct" the Obama administration from getting anything passed. That to me is pretty disgusting. How do you feel about that?

I didn't like it when Biden talked about it. I think I even (on this board) discussed Reid's "Nuclear Option" coming back to bite him. To quote Democrat Rep. Alcee Hastings of the House Rules Committee during the (PPACA) bill process: “We’re making up the rules as we go along.” I don't like any of those, and didn't when it happened. And I don't love it now. And I keep getting flummoxed at people continuing to vote assholes (on both sides) to have more power over our lives when they show this kind of behavior?!

But Trump's not on the ballot.

I also disagree with who will and won't vote for trump as you are discounting the possible surge of new young voters and the woman vote who is shifting more and more rapidly towards blue.[/QUOTE]
Sure, I'm discounting them. I'm also discounting people who were "young voters" a few years ago and, now that they're in the workforce and having families, like more in their paycheck and more control over their lives. As barfo said, I think it's just a matter of turnout. If I had to bet on it, I'd surmise the House goes to (D) by <10 votes, and the Senate stays (R) somewhere around 54-46. But ...?

The interesting thing to me was NBC stating, basically, "Trump's winning, whatcha gonna do about it." Instead of (what I'd have expected) "Trump's failed on most of his promises--Where's that wall? How is ISIS?--and is still a horrible person"[/QUOTE]
70% of the "more in your paycheck" went to the wealthy. And then there's the issue of who gets the benefits 10 years from now and who doesn't.

https://www.npr.org/2017/12/19/5717...h-of-gop-tax-cuts-will-go-to-the-middle-class

 

[barfo]

I don't know that new tax plan, choosing who he chose for the SC, stopping our involvement in NAFTA, TPP and the Iran deal were "easy".

His part in choosing the SC justice was picking a name from a list someone else (outside government) put together for him. Literally that's all.

There was nothing hard about saying 'I don't want to do TPP'. Anyone could have done that (had they been president).

The tax plan he had pretty much nothing to do with other than signing it.

Iran deal was just a matter of saying 'fuck you' to all our allies. No effort whatsoever.

NAFTA modifications (not 'stopping') took some work on the part of his administration, so I do give him credit for that one, as far as effort goes.

barfo

 

[Lanny]

His part in choosing the SC justice was picking a name from a list someone else (outside government) put together for him. Literally that's all.

There was nothing hard about saying 'I don't want to do TPP'. Anyone could have done that (had they been president).

The tax plan he had pretty much nothing to do with other than signing it.

Iran deal was just a matter of saying 'fuck you' to all our allies. No effort whatsoever.

NAFTA modifications (not 'stopping') took some work on the part of his administration, so I do give him credit for that one, as far as effort goes.

barfo

Results of the NAFTA modification are pretty minimal. I thought we were gonna get a wall paid for by Mexico out of that re-negotiation.

 

[Further]

I’m not the best person to answer this question because I am admittedly biased and despise Trump and what he’s doing to America. But, I do think more people are generally more pleased with Trump today then a month ago (by a tiny margin). However, “winning” might bring complacency amongst his supporters. His detractors are very jazzed up and I expect a very good turnout from them. On the other hand, midterms are usually more conservative driven. So who knows what the outcome will be.

 

[calvin natt]

It warms the cockles of my heart when I think of the massive amount of his voters who will reap zero benefit from having Trump as their lord and savior. Except the guns of course. They’ll have their guns.

 

[Lanny]

It warms the cockles of my heart when I think of the massive amount of his voters who will reap zero benefit from having Trump as their lord and savior. Except the guns of course. They’ll have their guns.

They can go to bed dreaming of an imaginary wall paid for by Mexico.

The wall will never be paid for by Mexico. NEVER. Those people hate Trump with a passion.

 

[BrianFromWA]

B.) I expect most of the people who voted for him to do so again, many probably because they don't want to admit they are wrong. In 2016 many many dems didn't vote because of Clinton. That is why he did so well in the midwest. There will be a lot more people voting this year, including new voters...mostly young liberals. I expect most of these voters will not vote red.

Fair point. In my anecdotal reading, though, (biased due to being educated, relatively economic-interested working women, who generally are moderate-to-liberal) there's been an increasing WTF?! moment for having white women called out as traitors. Again, I don't have a visceral reaction, but I think that some of the emotion that the D's have been using for years is now starting to be picked up by people in non-coast states. I think 2016 was a start to the trend. I kind of hope not, because I don't want to be in a world where dumb mobs win (thank you, Founding Fathers).[/QUOTE]

 

[BrianFromWA]

I’m not the best person to answer this question because I am admittedly biased and despise Trump and what he’s doing to America. But, I do think more people are generally more pleased with Trump today then a month ago (by a tiny margin). However, “winning” might bring complacency amongst his supporters. His detractors are very jazzed up and I expect a very good turnout from them. On the other hand, midterms are usually more conservative driven. So who knows what the outcome will be.

Meh, I think midterms are generally the backlash against the party that just won the Presidency. I fully expect to see House movement to the left, probably giving control.

 

[Further]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...-might-move-in-opposite-directions-this-year/

538 showing likely the D’s pick up seats and probably the control of the house but that R’s maintain and possibly pick up seats in the senate.

 

[BrianFromWA]

It warms the cockles of my heart when I think of the massive amount of his voters who will reap zero benefit from (not having Hillary) as their lord and savior. Except the guns of course. They’ll have their guns.

Well, tbh, that's a big one. And two more non-Sotomayors to remove the concept of judicial activism. That's a plus. If we can get spending and government programs under control (including the farce of paying insurance companies for health care), that's big. YMMV.

Plus, I'm excited to see about all the investigations going on. I'd love to see the President held accountable if he broke the law--it hasn't happened in a while. I'd love to see people subverting the government taken down, whoever they may be and for whatever reason.

 

[Further]

Brian, you and I both exist in echo chambers to some degree. I’m in liberal CA and you in the military. Most people are in a similar situation where we socialize and work with people who are more likely to have similar political views. This obfuscation makes an unbiased assessment very difficult. When I have time I try and read/watch views from across the political spectrum but that biased too, there are going to be 100+ million voters and reliance on any criteria to test the wind is fraught with problems. But, we try. I think 538 tries very hard to be unbiased. Polling becomes more important to capture any pulse of the greater nation.

 

[barfo]

I’m in liberal CA

According to your 'location' you are still in Walla Walla.

barfo

 

[Chris Craig]

Those "mobs" are the people. I don't condone violence or people doing stupid shit. I do believe in people protesting for what they believe in. The preamble of the constitution begins, We the people, not we the government. In Trumps speech, he said, "Republicans believe in the rule of the law, not the rule of the mob(people)" He forgets this country is of the people, by the people, and for the people.

 

[barfo]

Fair point. In my anecdotal reading, though, (biased due to being educated, relatively economic-interested working women, who generally are moderate-to-liberal) there's been an increasing WTF?! moment for having white women called out as traitors. Again, I don't have a visceral reaction, but I think that some of the emotion that the D's have been using for years is now starting to be picked up by people in non-coast states. I think 2016 was a start to the trend. I kind of hope not, because I don't want to be in a world where dumb mobs win (thank you, Founding Fathers).

Why can't white women be traitors? Equal opportunity...

What about the tea party? That was a dumb mob movement if ever there was one.

barfo

 

[BrianFromWA]

Brian, you and I both exist in echo chambers to some degree. I’m in liberal CA and you in the military. Most people are in a similar situation where we socialize and work with people who are more likely to have similar political views.

Yeah, but for a decade I worked in industry in the NW and DC. Amazon corporate is an extremely liberal organization. But that's one of the reasons I step outside the uniform a bunch, whether it's in church outings, within business circles, reading a bunch of topics (I mean, the article highlighted in NBC--I know better than to roll in here with a Breitbart article). But I agree that one generally has to be proactive about getting out of it. Similar to the interview question "Which browser do you use, and why?" The answer "X, because it came with the computer" is generally frowned upon. Almost anything else, with logical reasoning, was good because it showed you went above-and-beyond to get something that was better for you for some (might even be really weird) reason.

This obfuscation makes an unbiased assessment very difficult. When I have time I try and read/watch views from across the political spectrum but that biased too, there are going to be 100+ million voters and reliance on any criteria to test the wind is fraught with problems. But, we try. I think 538 tries very hard to be unbiased. Polling becomes more important to capture any pulse of the greater nation.

That's why I posted the article here...I wouldn't have expected what I read in the NBC article, and this OT group is pretty heaving liberal-leaning, so I didn't know if it's now commonly accepted that "Trump is winning". Looks anecdotally like it's "not really, he got the easy wins." At least here. [/QUOTE]

 

[CupWizier]

But Trump's not on the ballot.

This is what you posted:

"do you think this will cause anyone who voted for him to not vote for him or his endorsed candidates?"

Thus my comment regarding voting for Trump.

 

[Lanny]

Meh, I think midterms are generally the backlash against the party that just won the Presidency. I fully expect to see House movement to the left, probably giving control.

You're guess would be obvious but correct, nevertheless.

 

[Lanny]

Fair point. In my anecdotal reading, though, (biased due to being educated, relatively economic-interested working women, who generally are moderate-to-liberal) there's been an increasing WTF?! moment for having white women called out as traitors. Again, I don't have a visceral reaction, but I think that some of the emotion that the D's have been using for years is now starting to be picked up by people in non-coast states. I think 2016 was a start to the trend. I kind of hope not, because I don't want to be in a world where dumb mobs win (thank you, Founding Fathers).

[/QUOTE]
The angry emotion was used to great effect by the Republicans and the Tea Party. It has continued with Trump and his supporters.

 

[MarAzul]

A) Do you agree with the premise that Trump has made good on his campaign promises?
B) If so, do you think this will cause anyone who voted for him to not vote for him or his endorsed candidates?

There will be a lot more people voting this year, including new voters...mostly young liberals. I expect most of these voters will not vote red.

In Trumps speech, he said, "Republicans believe in the rule of the law, not the rule of the mob(people)" He forgets this country is of the people, by the people, and for the people.

Trump has been keeping to his campaign promises more so than any President in the past 80 years. Perhaps longer.
I expect most voters inform enough with the system do appreciate this welcome reality. Younger voter do take longer to notice due to the shorter span of their memory, which is not helped at all by their mentors in the public school system.

 

[Further]

According to your 'location' you are still in Walla Walla.

barfo

walla walla was annexed by San Francisco

 

[Further]

Yeah, but for a decade I worked in industry in the NW and DC. Amazon corporate is an extremely liberal organization. But that's one of the reasons I step outside the uniform a bunch, whether it's in church outings, within business circles, reading a bunch of topics (I mean, the article highlighted in NBC--I know better than to roll in here with a Breitbart article). But I agree that one generally has to be proactive about getting out of it. Similar to the interview question "Which browser do you use, and why?" The answer "X, because it came with the computer" is generally frowned upon. Almost anything else, with logical reasoning, was good because it showed you went above-and-beyond to get something that was better for you for some (might even be really weird) reason.

That's why I posted the article here...I wouldn't have expected what I read in the NBC article, and this OT group is pretty heaving liberal-leaning, so I didn't know if it's now commonly accepted that "Trump is winning". Looks anecdotally like it's "not really, he got the easy wins." At least here.

[/QUOTE]

Is Trump winning? I think he is certainly winning more now than he was a few months back. Will that translate to more votes, my intuition says no, but I don't really understand why you and so many people are so willing to accept a president that makes a mockery of decency. So I guess I just don't know.