New Electoral Math

[Real]

RCP shows McCain up by 1.5 in Ohio, 0.5 in Colorado site of Democratic convention, 0.6 in Virginia the home of Tim Kaine, 1.3 in Indiana home of Evan Bayh, and 2.6 in Florida.

Obama is up 3.2 points in Michigan (Homestate of Mitt Romney), 2.6 in Minnesota site of GOP convention and Tim Pawlenty's state.

If you don't include toss-up states like Indiana, Obama leads 228-178. If you include all the toss up states, McCain wins it 274-264.

The momentum is in McCain's favor once again. Probably not for long since the Democratic convention starts next week, but it's very clear that this won't be a blowout as previously predicted.

Also, some may say that picking a VP won't have much affect on the outcome of that state in the election, but since several of these battleground states boast VP candidates, like Pawlenty, Kaine, and Bayh, it's not out of the question that one of these states could swing to the other side or become more solid for one candidate due to their choice, especially since Pawlenty, Bayh, and Kaine have been pretty popular.

 

[huevonkiller]

RCP has Obama up or tied in Ohio's last two polls.

Here's an indicator of their momentum:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/charts.html

 

[Real]

RCP has Obama up or tied in Ohio's last two polls.

Here's an indicator of their momentum:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/charts.html

That's right, the up 1.5 poll was taken before the one that showed them both tied.

But Rasmussen had McCain up by 10, so that's why over two months the average is up by McCain up by a little over 1.

BTW, before the McCain +10, the same pollsters that show them tied now had Obama up by 8, if that's any indication of where the momentum in Ohio is going.

 

[huevonkiller]

That's right, the up 1.5 poll was taken before the one that showed them both tied.

But Rasmussen had McCain up by 10, so that's why over two months the average is up by McCain up by a little over 1.

BTW, before the McCain +10, the same pollsters that show them tied now had Obama up by 8, if that's any indication of where the momentum in Ohio is going.

Ohio is a true toss-up state, it doesn't lean anywhere right now imo.

McCain builds this type of momentum, and it always seems to plateau at a certain point as far as the popular vote or electoral college is concerned (look at the link I provided for example). This happened before after the Wright crisis.

 

[Real]

Ohio is a true toss-up state, it doesn't lean anywhere right now imo.

McCain builds this type of momentum, and it always seems to plateau at a certain point as far as the popular vote or electoral college is concerned (look at the link I provided for example). This happened before after the Wright crisis.

McCain's not supposed to be in this race, period. Just the fact that he's leading in some of these polls is pretty amazing. And his momentum is on the upspring, at least until next week.

From June to July to August, Obama's lead in that poll has disappeared, from 11 points to 8 points to a tie. What is going to stop him from building a lead in that poll?

 

[huevonkiller]

McCain's not supposed to be in this race, period. Just the fact that he's leading in some of these polls is pretty amazing. And his momentum is on the upspring, at least until next week.

From June to July to August, Obama's lead in that poll has disappeared, from 11 points to 8 points to a tie. What is going to stop him from building a lead in that poll?

Actually, McCain was doing better during the end of that whole Democratic primary fiasco. What i said was quite true and he's always been close, it is just that I don't see Barry losing.

 

[Real]

Actually, McCain was doing better during the end of that whole Democratic primary fiasco. What i said was quite true and he's always been close, it is just that I don't see Barry losing.

Yes, then Obama built a ten point lead and lost it over the summer.

 

[huevonkiller]

Yes, then Obama built a ten point lead and lost it over the summer.

Where is the ten point lead in that chart? I know some polls showed that, but RCP supposedly averages various polls out.

Obama has always been a certain range ahead of McCain, it was 2.3% a few weeks ago, now it has grown again.

 

[Real]

I said in that poll, not in that chart.

PPP (D) 06/14 - 06/15 733 LV 39 50 Obama +11

PPP (D) 07/17 - 07/20 1058 LV 40 48 Obama +8

PPP (D) 08/12 - 08/14 950 LV 45 45 Tie

 

[huevonkiller]

I said in that poll, not in that chart.

PPP (D) 06/14 - 06/15 733 LV 39 50 Obama +11

PPP (D) 07/17 - 07/20 1058 LV 40 48 Obama +8

PPP (D) 08/12 - 08/14 950 LV 45 45 Tie

Right, and the average of these type of polls have slightly gone in Obama's favor recently.

 

[Real]

Right, and the average of these type of polls have slightly gone in Obama's favor recently.

Explain.

 

[huevonkiller]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/charts.html

August 4 to now shows the fluctuating nature of polling, right? I don't think McCain will ever really build on any lead though.

 

[Real]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/charts.html

August 4 to now shows the fluctuating nature of polling, right? I don't think McCain will ever really build on any lead though.

Those polls I posted are Ohio, not national polls.

 

[huevonkiller]

Those polls I posted are Ohio, not national polls.

The Ohio polls are part of my larger argument that McCain plateaus at a certain point.

He never really builds on his momentum, but the polls are always close. Until I see him ahead in various polls in Ohio I don't know why I should give it to him. The most recent data collected shows a tied nature.

The toss-up electoral college RCP uses is flawed in my personal opinion.

 

[MikeDC]

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUKN1948672420080820?sp=true

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama's solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll.

 

[huevonkiller]

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUKN1948672420080820?sp=true

Gallup, Rasmussen, and the LA times still has him ahead.

Ohio is still quite unsure though, Rasmussen had McCain +10 on July 21, now it is +5. The other two Ohio polls gave Barry the edge before so I think that might remain the same.

As of now I think Barry will almost choke, and pull off a very small electoral college win.

 

[porky88]

Forget about Ohio and Florida. Obama isn't going to lose the election even if he loses both and I think he probably will.

This is Obama's plan to be President of the United States.

Hang onto the Kerry states from 04 and he's sitting in great shape.

Pick off the following states that were held but G.W. Bush.

Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Virginia.

Give him all those states. That's 39 electoral votes right now.

Even if he loses Michigan which was a Kerry state.

Obama stands at 274 electoral votes and wins the election.

If he wins Michigan and loses Penn then he's at 270 votes which is enough to win.

If he wins both and all those then it's a landslide. If he does hang onto both then McCain cannot afford to lose Virginia or Colorado. If he does then it's over unless he somehow picks off New Mexico and Nevada or even New Hampshire which is going to be tough for him in my opinion.

I think Iowa is all but going blue this year too so I think that's also going to be really tough for McCain to win the presidency if he loses Virginia and/or Colorado.

Now here is how Ohio and Florida become big this year

Obama cannot afford to lose Michigan and Pennsylvania. He can still win if he loses one but losing both would hurt. Those were Kerry states from 04. If he loses both then he's going to have to take either Florida or Ohio to win which is possible from the polling I've seen but also going to be very tough in my opinion and I think unlikely.

Either way I think we're in for another close race.

 

[Denny Crane]

http://electoral-vote.com/

Obama 269, McCain 256, 13 EVs up for grabs.

Obama is NOT going to win Nevada, regardless of the polls saying it's close now. Which puts the electoral vote (using porky's figuring) exactly where it was in 2000 when Bush won.

 

[The Return of the Raider]

Obama is NOT going to win Nevada, regardless of the polls saying it's close now. Which puts the electoral vote (using porky's figuring) exactly where it was in 2000 when Bush won.

I am kind of amazed that you guys are even giving any creedence to these pre election polls, other than it gives us something to write about. Polls are garbage, in my opinion.

 

[Denny Crane]

I am kind of amazed that you guys are even giving any creedence to these pre election polls, other than it gives us something to write about. Polls are garbage, in my opinion.

Why not play football games without a scoreboard and clock. Just tell people after the game's over who won and what the score was!

 

[The Return of the Raider]

Why not play football games without a scoreboard and clock. Just tell people after the game's over who won and what the score was!

Hmmm. I always thought that the football game was the election, not the poll. The poll is like a preseason game to me. Doesn't count for anything.

 

[Denny Crane]

Hmmm. I always thought that the football game was the election, not the poll. The poll is like a preseason game to me. Doesn't count for anything.

I see entire seasons, and politics to be a similar thing, like a soap opera. The pre-season in football was akin to the 2+ years all the candidates spent running before the first primary. The games are the primaries. The SuperBowl is the election.

Each one ends, and you later talk about the 1978 season, or the 1960 election, in very similar manners.

 

[The Return of the Raider]

I see entire seasons, and politics to be a similar thing, like a soap opera. The pre-season in football was akin to the 2+ years all the candidates spent running before the first primary. The games are the primaries. The SuperBowl is the election.

Each one ends, and you later talk about the 1978 season, or the 1960 election, in very similar manners.

I see. I just don't read into polls before an election. I think that there are too many ways to spin them into different perspectives. Also, you really don't know how they are gathering their votes, or any other way of solidly verifying a particular poll. There is zero deviation in election results though. Election results are the be all, end all. Polls change by the minute, by the county, by the state, etc, etc, etc, and get pasted into national news as a representation of what people actually believe. I find them unreliable.

 

[44Thrilla]

As I've said before, polls don't mean much until late October.

 

[Denny Crane]

I see. I just don't read into polls before an election. I think that there are too many ways to spin them into different perspectives. Also, you really don't know how they are gathering their votes, or any other way of solidly verifying a particular poll. There is zero deviation in election results though. Election results are the be all, end all. Polls change by the minute, by the county, by the state, etc, etc, etc, and get pasted into national news as a representation of what people actually believe. I find them unreliable.

The score of a football game is unreliable until the final whistle blows, no? I remember a couple of seasons ago, the Bears won a few in the final seconds with fluke type plays.

The polls are what the polls are - as close as we have to an accurate "current score" of the game. Elections ARE a big game in many respects, too. Obama, for example, has a coaching staff.

 

[The Return of the Raider]

The score of a football game is unreliable until the final whistle blows, no? I remember a couple of seasons ago, the Bears won a few in the final seconds with fluke type plays.

The polls are what the polls are - as close as we have to an accurate "current score" of the game. Elections ARE a big game in many respects, too. Obama, for example, has a coaching staff.

You are saying that the game is going on before the game starts. I look at all this as practice or preseason. For me, the football game is election day.

**
1st quarter:

It's 4pm EST, and the current election results show Obama up by 10% in New York, with only 25% of precincts reporting.

Score: Obama 1, McCain 0.

4th quarter:
It's 8pm PST. Current election results show McCain leading Obama 10%. 100% of precincts reporting.

Score: McCain 5, Obama 3


That's the analogy that I offer.

 

[Denny Crane]

Biden ran for president until midway through Q1 when he quit, in your analogy.

I am saying that just like in football, there's a pre-season (before the 1st primary), a regular season (the primaries), and the SuperBowl (general election).

When people look back and talk about the 2008 election, they're going to remember Rudy ran, and Hillary, and Fred Thompson, and so on. Just like they're going to remember New England was undefeated until the SuperBowl loss. (and maybe they lose 'em all in 2009, it's not the exact same team).

 

[The Return of the Raider]

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUKN1948672420080820?sp=true

LOL. Guys. Please. Stop watching pre election polls. They are garbage.

Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama leads Republican rival John McCain by 49 percent to 43 percent nationwide among registered voters, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll released today.

What are you expecting to glean from bouncing back and forth between everyone's polls? Four days ago, McCain was leading by the same amount Obama is leading. Do you understand what is going on? I do.

 

[MikeDC]

LOL. Guys. Please. Stop watching pre election polls. They are garbage.



What are you expecting to glean from bouncing back and forth between everyone's polls? Four days ago, McCain was leading by the same amount Obama is leading. Do you understand what is going on? I do.

I just thought it was a funny juxtaposition with Huevon's statement that he'd believe the gap was closing when he saw polls with McCain ahead, which I read immediately after reading a poll showing McCain ahead

I wouldn't so much call them garbage as noisy data points. Adding them together and tracking them over time is certainly worth doing. Reading too much into an individual one certainly is not.

 

[Denny Crane]

What's even funnier is the Democrats a few years back wanted to do away with the census canvasing and use the same math and technology as polls use instead.